Maple Leafs Fire Sheldon Keefe, But There's Already A Perfect Landing Spot ... Just Not In The NHL

We knew it was coming. He knew it was coming.

The Toronto Maple Leafs announced Thursday that they have parted ways with head coach Sheldon Keefe.

However, history has a way of repeating itself, and that's why I don't think Keefe will be on the proverbial beach for too long, unless he wants to take some time off, perhaps on the actual beach.

That's because his old pal, Kyle Dubas, has a position to fill.

When you look at Keefe's five seasons leading the Leafs (which included the back half of the COVID-shortened 2019-20 season and the also COVID-shortened 2020-21 season) the regular seasons were great. It was the playoffs that made every season feel like a complete failure.

Of course, a lot of that blame falls on the coach's shoulders, but it certainly didn't help that there wasn't one post-season in that span where the team's four core players — Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, and John Tavares — all showed up.

I mean, there were times in the first-round series against Boston this year when Mitch Marner looked like he didn't want to be out there.

That's not necessarily Keefe's fault.

Head coach Sheldon Keefe being shown the door could be the first of several offseason changes in Toronto. (Nick Lachance/Toronto Star via Getty Images)

So, I think he took a somewhat unfair amount of the brunt for the teams' failures, and it looks like his firing will probably be step one in GM Brad Treliving's offseason plans.

Speaking of which, when Treliving took over last summer, you got the sense that this was the "put up or shut up" season for Keefe. That's because GM's like to have "their guy" behind the bench.

And that's where I think Keefe is lucky. He has been Kyle Dubas' guy for years.

Pittsburgh Penguins GM Kyle Dubas has already given Sheldon Keefe three jobs over the years, so why not a fourth? (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

Dubas And The Penguins Have A Role To Fill In The AHL

History has a habit of repeating itself and that's why If I were a betting man — and I am — I would bet that Sheldon Keefe becomes the next head coach of the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins by the end of the summer, and the head coach of the Pittsburgh Penguins in the next year or two.

When Dubas was the GM in Toronto, the lone coaching change he made was hiring Keefe to replace Mike Babcock.

At the time, Keefe was the head coach of the Leafs' AHL affiliate, the Toronto Marlies, and had been hired for that role, by Kyle Dubas.

Before arriving in Toronto, Keefe coached the OHL's Soo Greyhounds and had been hired by… 

Anyone?

…that's right, Kyle Dubas.

Remember, I mentioned that GMs like to put "their guy" behind the bench. Well, current Pens head coach Mike Sullivan has a deal through the 2026-27 season, and while the Pens have missed the postseason the last two years, their late-season run goes to show that Sullivan can still squeeze the most out of that team.

That means, canning him and paying out the rest of his contract seems like a tough move from an optics standpoint.

However, the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins did not renew the contracts of head coach JD Forrest and assistant coach Kevin Porter after the Baby Pens were eliminated from the Calder Cup Playoffs after an opening-round loss to the Lehigh Valley Phantoms (the Flyers farm team; not that it matters, but it does).

So, there's an opening, and Keefe would be a great fit and not having the immense pressure of Toronto will be a nice change of pace.

Then, if the Pens start to stumble under Sullivan again, Dubas can throw the switch on him and bring Keefe — his guy — up from Wilkes-Barre.

Again, this exact thing has happened before.

I'm anxious to see how this all plays out, but whether it's in Wilkes-Barre, Pittsburgh, or somewhere else, I don't think Keefe will be unemployed long.