Manny Machado Prediction That The Padres Would Start F****** Raking Aging Poorly
The San Diego Padres entered the 2023 season with high expectations, thanks to a high-priced lineup filled with stars. Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Xander Bogaerts were supposed to lead the Padres back for a deep postseason run after losing in the NLCS to the Philadelphia Phillies in 2022.
But San Diego started poorly, stumbling to a .500 record by late April thanks to an underperforming offense. At the time, Machado told Padres fans that no one should jump off the bandwagon after a poor offensive showing. "I'd rather this happen now than down the road," Machado said. "It's just: Don't jump on the bandwagon later on when we start f****** raking and we're doing what we're supposed to be doing."
They never started raking, riding a miraculous finish to a still-mediocre 82-80 record and missing the playoffs.
But 2024 is a new season, and with the first month finished, it's worth checking in on how well Machado's "f***** raking" prediction is holding up.
NEW YORK - Manny Machado of the San Diego Padres grounds out to first to end the top of the third inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field on April 11, 2023. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Manny Machado, Padres, Still Struggling Through First Month
Entering Tuesday, San Diego is 14-18, having lost five in a row and with a negative run differential. They're 6-12 at home and sit 5.5 games behind the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers. Significantly worse than their position at the end of April in 2023.
Even more concerning for Padres fans, they've actually played one of baseball's easiest schedules and still been outscored. Baseball Reference has a team strength metric called their simple rating system, which essentially takes run differential per game, adjusts for strength of schedule and creates a rating that's supposed to indicate how much better or worse per game each team is than the average MLB team.
In that metric, the Padres currently rank 21st. Behind the Oakland A's and Washington Nationals, neither of which feature an infield that's owed roughly $1 billion in future contract commitments.
It's still early, of course, but returns on the Padres offense haven't been encouraging either. Especially with Machado in particular. San Diego is averaging 4.7 runs per game, 12th in baseball, but even their run totals have relied on some fortunate performance and unexpected overachievers.
Jurickson Profar, Eguy Rosario, and Jose Azocar have all far exceeded expectations thus far, with varying levels of unsustainable luck on batted balls. If those players return to their past levels of performance, how much worse will the offense get?
Machado though, may be the most concerning part of the Padres' slow start. Through Monday's game, he's hitting just . Often when star players suffer through a slump, it's as a result of bad luck. Machado's batting average on balls in play though, is .304, when league average is .300. So what's causing the underperformance?
Simply, Machado's not hitting the ball as well as he did in years past. Over his career, he's hit 40.8 percent of balls on the ground, with a 24.8 percent fly ball rate and 24.7 percent line drive rate. He's consistently made solid contact in the middle of the bat, leading to higher-than-average rates in both categories. This year, that's changed. His ground ball rate has soared to 50.6 percent, 10 points higher than his league average. His solid hit percentage is down to 3.6 percent, half his 7.5 percent career line. He's also hitting fewer fly balls and line drives, just 21.7 percent for each category.
All that adds up to a significantly lower expected batting line than his career performance (wOBA). His expected weighted on base average is just .320 to start 2024, the lowest in his career, well below his .388 wOBA in 2021.
Don't Jump Off The Bandwagon
The Padres pitching has also struggled, and Xander Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr. have contributed to the underwhelming offense. But with Juan Soto in New York and the early returns on Manny Machado's return from surgery disappointing, concerns over San Diego's performance are well warranted.
The top of the lineup isn't going to change, considering that Machado and Bogaerts are signed through 2033 and Tatis through 2034. The pitching is rapidly aging, as Yu Darvish battles injuries in his age-37 season. And with new payroll restrictions, it might be time to start wondering how bad things might get for the Padres.
And about the future of A.J. Preller, the man responsible for putting the team together that can't start f***** raking.