Major League Baseball Has A Serious 2024 Postseason Problem On Its Hands Already
The halfway point of the Major League Baseball season is nearly upon us, and the league has a serious credibility problem rapidly brewing.
First, it's important to unpack what the league has done and prioritized in previous years. In pursuit of more revenue, MLB has periodically increased the amount of teams in each league that make the postseason. In the glory days of baseball, for example, the winner of the National League regular season would play the winner of the American League regular season in the World Series.
The lack of a real postseason tournament meant that for dominant teams, it was a relatively straightforward championship proposition: have the best regular season record in your league, have a 50 percent to 60 percent chance at winning a title. The New York Yankees took the most advantage of that format, winning 22 World Series titles before the 1980's. They've won just once in the past 24 years though.
Over time, the addition of divisions, expansion teams and wild cards have made it harder and harder to get through a small sample size tournament between evenly matched teams. And for the most part, MLB has achieved its goal: increase revenue through more postseason games and more meaningful late regular season matchups.
But last year, the second in the league's new six-team per league postseason format revealed a substantial problem with diluting the quality of the playoff field. And this year could be much, much worse.
MILWAUKEE - Paul Sewald of the Arizona Diamondbacks reacts to defeating the Milwaukee Brewers 5-2 in Game Two of the Wild Card Series at American Family Field on October 4, 2023. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
Mediocrity Running Rampant Across The Major Leagues
Last season, the Arizona Diamondbacks entered the playoffs with an 84-78 record, having been outscored by 13 runs over 162 games. They went to the World Series. And ratings were historically bad.
Through early-June, the story of this Major League Baseball season has been that same type of mediocrity…but worse. And there's one, very simple, way to illustrate that. The National League, somehow, as of Thursday afternoon, has just four teams that currently have a winning record.
There are six postseason spots available per league. That's a real problem.
Lest you think it's limited to the NL, the American League has just six teams with a winning record. There are 10 total teams across the sport with a winning record. That's a lot of mediocrity. The 26-35 Mets, with a .426 winning percentage, are just 3.5 games out of a postseason berth.
If the season ended today, the 32-33 San Diego Padres would make the playoffs. Is that what baseball really wants? Teams with a losing record making the postseason? Because that's where it's heading, rapidly.
MLB Incentivizes Mediocrity, Gets It
By adding the third wild card, the league essentially created this system. Now teams that are on the fringes of contention have a motivation to fight for every possible win in search of squeaking their way into the playoffs. Sure, they have to win in the wild card round, but as we've seen in the past two seasons, that's hardly a hurdle to making it to the World Series.
As a result, there are now eight teams with a winning percentage between 44 and 49 percent. And the likelihood is that at least one of them makes the postseason.
MLB might not care if those losing record teams are the Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox or New York Mets. Big market teams lead to bigger ratings. But if it's the Pittsburgh Pirates or Cincinnati Reds squeaking in with a 79-83 record, that's a recipe for ratings disaster. Especially if the randomness of the postseason takes over and those teams advance deep into October.
This doesn't mean that only the Yankees or Dodgers should be allowed to make the playoffs, or win the World Series. This year's Kansas City Royals have been one of baseball's best teams by run differential, and if they make it back to the series, it'll be well deserved.
But these kinds of seasons, where the 32-33 Padres have a 50/50 chance of making it to October, aren't what MLB wants. Because mediocre teams in the playoffs create credibility problems.
And by the way, the Padres combined record the past two seasons? 114-113. Can't get more mediocre than that.