Is The Juan Soto Free Agency Race Already Down To Two Teams?

Juan Soto is having the best season of his already illustrious Major League Baseball career at the perfect time.

Soto's first year in New York has been exceptional; a career-high 37 home runs, 7.5 wins above replacement, a batting line 85 percent better than league average. Even his questionable defensive metrics have improved in The Bronx. With Aaron Judge, Soto's combined to form a devastating one-two offensive punch. Yankees fans have been thrilled with Soto's performance and personality…but then there's that pesky "first year" in New York part.

Soto's a free agent after the year, and as one of the youngest free agents on the market, and unquestionably the best available hitter, his price is expected to set records. ESPN's Jeff Passan reported that he's already had conversations with industry executives and agents, with a clear market already developing to secure Soto's skills. 

Per Passan, baseball widely views the "floor" for Soto's contract as $500 million. The floor. As we saw with Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the floor for desirable free agents, especially when they're on the younger side, is often significantly lower than the eventual ceiling.

So who can even afford to start the bidding at $500 million? Passan mentions the Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Los Angeles Angels, but per his sources at the front office and ownership level, there's two runaway front-runners.

Yankees, Mets Clear Favorites To Sign Soto

Across baseball, it's widely viewed that the Soto race already comes down to just two teams: the Yankees and their crosstown rival New York Mets.

The Yankees are the Yankees, with the money and cachet to sign any free agent they want. Soto's already enjoyed tremendous success with his new team, teammates and in the new stadium. They're arguably the favorites to win the American League, ahead of a tough Baltimore Orioles team. If they do reach the World Series, how do they let Soto walk? What do they tell the fans, who've seen the Yankees mostly whiff on big free agents, Judge aside, since signing Gerrit Cole in 2019? 

For the Mets, owner Steve Cohen has deeper pockets than anyone, a resurgent season from Francisco Lindor provides reason for optimism moving forward, and there's a ton of money coming off the team's books in 2025 and 2026. Plus, he'd secure a much-needed win over the behemoth Yankees.

It makes sense. Both teams have the need for Soto, the money to sign him, and tremendous incentives to do so. He's a unique free agent, a unique talent, and a near-guarantee to exceed the present day value of Ohtani's contract. Unless the Dodgers decide they won't be out bid again.

Passan also touched on one of the most interesting free agent possibilities: Roki Sasaki. Sasaki has been one of the best pitchers in Japanese baseball and will play the entirety of the 2025 season at just 23-years-old. Per Passan, he desperately wanted to be posted to move to MLB for 2024, but the Chiba Lotte Marines denied his request. They can keep denying it after this year too, if they so desire. But Sasaki wants to leave Japan, as soon as possible. If he does, he'd be able to pick his team. 

And he's widely expected to pick the Dodgers. Yes, the rich could get richer again. They just might have to wait until 2026.

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Ian Miller is a former award watching high school actor, author, and long suffering Dodgers fan. He spends most of his time golfing, traveling, reading about World War I history, and trying to get the remote back from his dog.