Juan Soto Contract Shows MLB Owners Are Lying About Crying Poor
Juan Soto will soon be officially announced as a member of the New York Mets after agreeing to a massive, record-setting new 15-year, $765 million deal. The headline number is jaw dropping enough, easily exceeding the present day value of Shohei Ohtani's contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers by over $300 million. And with built-in escalators, the total guarantee could exceed $800 million, per several reports.
Soto was a unique free agent; inarguably one of the top 2-3 hitters in baseball, reaching free agency before his age-26 season, and with uncommon certainty given his consistently elite offensive track record. Still, it's an incredible contract number, especially considering Soto's extremely poor defense and baserunning skills. And beyond making several star players now look like a relative bargain, it highlights another important truth.
There is an incredible amount of money being generated across Major League Baseball, and outside of a few exceptions, owners are refusing to spend it.
Oct 30, 2024; New York, New York, USA; New York Yankees third baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. (13), outfielder Alex Verdugo (24), outfielder Juan Soto (22) and outfielder Aaron Judge (99) during the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers in game five of the 2024 MLB World Series at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Juan Soto Contract Reveals Uncomfortable Truths In MLB
No small market teams were involved in the Soto bidding; per most reports, the five finalists were the Dodgers, Mets, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox. Those are all wealthier organizations compared to say, the Kansas City Royals or Pittsburgh Pirates.
Still, the biggest free agency contract ever handed out by the Pirates was Francisco Liriano in 2015 for three years and $39 million. The highest paid player on the Tampa Bay Rays last year made $8.75 million, and the Milwaukee Brewers are so cheap they're apparently looking to deal star closer Devin Williams, who's set to make just $10.5 million this year.
Yes, the Mets are making a lot more revenue than those small market teams. No, they aren't making 8-10x more, which is what the Soto contract implies.
The Royals last year, for example, extended star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. for $289 million, with escalating salaries that would pay him $30 million in 2028 when he'd have reached his first year of free agency. Witt is an elite defensive player, an elite baserunner, and was worth nearly as much on offense in 2024 as Soto. His 10.4 Fangraphs WAR was 2.3 wins higher than Soto's 8.1. He's a bargain at that price, but his contract, along with Soto's, show that there's a lot of money available to small market teams, if they choose to spend it.
No one would expect the Reds or Pirates to bid on Soto, especially above the $700 million level. But the Red Sox have hardly spent commensurate with their market, yet they apparently reached that figure too. The Dodgers have given out massive guarantees to a number of stars, and they are even willing to get above $600 million too.
It's time to stop letting small market owners off the hook for pocketing profits instead of reinvesting in their teams. There's no reason why the Minnesota Twins or Seattle Mariners or St. Louis Cardinals couldn't sign $250-300 million contracts. Because that would imply they bring in less than half the revenue of the New York Mets. And it's likely that the gap is a lot closer than that.
Trying to win is good, because baseball is a competitive industry. If you don't care about actively putting the best available product on the field, go buy a company that makes toasters instead.