WARNING: Popular 12-Seed Pick Is On Fraud Alert
Is James Madison officially on fraud alert?
The Dukes face Wisconsin in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament, and it's the 5/12 matchup that has generated the most attention.
The 31-3 Dukes seem to be a very sexy pick to upset Wisconsin and advance to Sunday. In fact, it seems like many people think it'd be foolish to pick against JMU, despite Vegas favoring Greg Gard's team.
The reasons? People picking the Dukes point to the very impressive 31-3 record and the fact the team averages a hot 84.4 points per game. Meanwhile, Wisconsin finished with a bit of a disappointing record of 22-13 and averages 75.1 points per game.
The Badgers can score, but have plenty of issues on defense that can pop up. People seem to think that's exactly what will happen Friday night. However, is all this JMU hype justified?
No.
James Madison's resume isn't nearly as impressive as people think.
On paper, a novice might see the record, quickly look at some stats and come to the conclusion that JMU is an easy upset pick. But who exactly has JMU played to build this impressive record?
The team ranked 52nd in the NET rankings, and *PLAYED TWO QUAD ONE TEAMS* all season. The Dukes went 1-2 in Quad One and Quad Two games. JMU played three games viewed as remotely difficult, and the big one was a win over Michigan State to start the season.
Not impressive at all. Michigan State has had a very up and down season, and struggled through large chunks to find any consistency.
Well, what about the other games of the season? The Dukes went 7-1 in Quad Three games and played a 22-0 Quad Four games without a loss. The record, while impressive, was built by playing laughable cupcakes.
Have you ever heard of Keystone before? I know it's a beer. It's also a team JMU played. Let's not forget games against UL Monroe, Radford, Old Dominion, Coastal Carolina and a bunch of other schools most people couldn't find on a map.
For comparison, Wisconsin played a total of 27 Quad One and Quad Two games with a combined record of 14-13. JMU has a better record…..against teams that are comically weaker.
Furthermore, JMU has a serious roster problem compared to Wisconsin. The Dukes' tallest player who sees time is 6'9." That's a major problem.
Wisconsin has four guys in the rotation who are at least 6'9," including two legit seven footers. A.J. Storr - who will be the most athletic person in Brooklyn Friday - is 6'7," and a match-up nightmare for anyone on JMU. How are small guards on the Dukes going to match up against Storr? How are their bigs going to match up against Steven Crowl, Nolan Winter and Tyler Wahl?
The Badgers will have a simple strategy. Slow things down and physically brutalize JMU down low and in the half-court. That's Big Ten basketball. It's not the Sun Belt, and that's a lesson the Dukes are going to learn the hard way. I'm officially stamping them with the fraud label. Let me know your thoughts at David.Hookstead@outkick.com.