USC Might Be Stuck With Lincoln Riley, No Matter How Bad Things Get

Just a few weeks ago, the USC Trojans sat in the top 10 in the Associated Press poll. They were widely predicted to make the College Football Playoff, and had leads in the fourth quarter over Michigan, Penn State, Minnesota and Maryland. They lost all four games.

READ: USC Football Is Making The Wrong Kind Of History

Somehow, someway, halfway through the season, USC is 3-4 and just 1-4 in the Big Ten Conference. They also have a home game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights on Friday night. Unsurprisingly, the Trojans are favored by 14 points. But they were favored over Maryland, favored over Minnesota, favored over Michigan, and only slight underdogs to Penn State.

In terms of on-field talent, an upset win for Rutgers would be a stunning outcome. But the story of the 2024 USC season is stunning outcomes. Despite the disappointing results, Lincoln Riley has mostly avoided real questions about his job status. A loss to Rutgers would undoubtedly change that. Except a new report on Riley's buyout has revealed why no amount of losing would likely be enough for USC to make a change.

COLLEGE PARK, Md. - Head coach Lincoln Riley of the USC Trojans argues a call with an official in the fourth quarter against the Maryland Terrapins at SECU Stadium on October 19, 2024. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)

Lincoln Riley's Massive Buyout Number Means He's Locked In At USC

ESPN's Pete Thamel reported on the College GameDay podcast that Riley's buyout number is roughly $90 million, one of the highest numbers in college football.

"People are unhappy about USC," Thamel explained. "My sources told me this week that Lincoln Riley would be owed $90 million if you were going to fire him. Right around $90 million. That's like Jimbo (Fisher) super-sized buyout. It feels like those two are a little bit stuck with each other right now, Lincoln Riley and USC."

Even if USC survives another likely fourth-quarter collapse to beat Rutgers, the rest of the schedule doesn't get much easier. The Trojans head to Seattle for a daunting road matchup against the Washington Huskies, host Nebraska, play a rivalry game against UCLA at the Rose Bowl, then host a likely top-10 Notre Dame team to finish the season. 

It's easy to point to Nebraska, UCLA and Rutgers and chalk those up as wins, but you could have said the same about Minnesota and Maryland. The Trojans found a way to lose both of those games anyway. And with their season effectively over and a laundry list of injuries, it'd be easy for the team to quit on the season.

In fact, there's a very real possibility that USC wins just five games and misses out on a bowl game. That would make Riley just 12-12 over his last two regular seasons.

Considering the money involved in making a coaching change and the impact on recruiting, it might not matter how bad things get at USC. Every game should be a "must-win" for the Trojans at this point to salvage something out of a dismal, disappointing year. It could become much, much, much more disappointing if they find a way to lose at home to Rutgers.