How Much Do Managers Actually Matter In Baseball?

It's a long-standing narrative in Major League Baseball that successful teams have good managers in place to create a winning culture and make correct decisions on substitutions and relievers.

But the 2024 season, through the first quarter of the year, has provided yet another example of how misguided that narrative has been. Several high profile managers, widely viewed as some of the best in the sport, have presided over (relatively) disappointing starts with extremely high expectations.

Bruce Bochy And The Texas Rangers

Bruce Bochy is often discussed as one of the best managers in baseball, with sports media crediting him for helping lead the Texas Rangers to a World Series Championship in 2023. He does deserve credit, of course, for the Rangers winning the ultimate prize, but the start to 2024 has been much less impressive.

Through the first 43 games of the season, the defending champion Rangers are just 22-21. They're 1.5 games behind the first place Seattle Mariners, and perhaps more concerning, have just a 33% chance of making the playoffs, per Fangraphs. It's early, and the Rangers have several important players expected back from injury this season, namely Jacob deGrom, Josh Jung and Max Scherzer. Though Scherzer suffered a setback recently with a nerve issue that makes his return even more uncertain.

Still, much of the Rangers team from 2023 remains intact. Adolis Garcia, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe, Evan Carter and Jonah Heim. Jon Gray, Nate Eovaldi, Dane Dunning, Jose Leclerc and Andrew Heaney are all key pitchers that stayed in Arlington. And of course, the Rangers started the year with Wyatt Langford, viewed as one of the top two or three prospects in the sport.

Yet they're 22-21, in second place, and underdogs to make the playoffs. 

Much of the blame for underperformance can be levied at the players; Seager has followed up a monster 2023 with a disastrous 2024, hitting just .235/.314/.333. After a batting line nearly 70% better than league average last season, Seager's been 16% worse than league average this season. 

Evan Carter has failed to progress, with a 103 wRC+, just 3% better than league average. Adolis Garcia similarly has been just 6% better. 

Bochy's vaunted bullpen management has also disappeared; Texas' reliever ERA is 5.35, literally last in Major League Baseball.

Not all of these issues can be blamed on Bochy, and maybe even none of them can. But that's the point; if it's not his fault the Rangers are struggling due to player underperformance, poor relief pitching, and notable injuries, how can he receive the praise when those same players succeeded the year before? 

Maybe, just maybe, what happens on the field isn't dictated as much by managers as most old school sports media commentators would like to believe. 

DENVER, COLORADO - MAY 12: Manager Bruce Bochy #15 of the Texas Rangers walks out to the mound against the Colorado Rockies in the seventh inning at Coors Field on May 12, 2024 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

Craig Counsell And The Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs made waves this offseason by poaching manager Craig Counsell from the Milwaukee Brewers for a staggering $8 million per year. Not only did that make him the highest paid manager in baseball, it made him the highest paid player on the Oakland A's. And he doesn't actually play.

READ: New Cubs Manager Craig Counsell Would Have Been The Highest Paid Player On The Oakland A’s

The Cubs also brought in Shota Imanaga, former top prospect Michael Busch, re-signed Cody Bellinger, and retained much of the core from their 2023 team. With a new, highly paid manager poached from Milwaukee, they should be running away from the Brewers, right?

Not exactly.

The Cubs are in second place, though just a half game back, behind…you guessed it, the Milwaukee Brewers. It's early, and the Cubs can expect better results from Ian Happ and Justin Steele. But Cody Bellinger has regressed so far in his second season in Wrigley, and the Brewers have shrugged off losing Corbin Burnes and Counsell to jump out to a 24-17 record. 

Counsell, another manager highly regarded for his bullpen management, has guided the Cubs relievers to a 4.61 ERA, good for 13th out of 15 NL teams. There's reason to expect positive regression from the bullpen, but again, why pay $8 million per year for a manager if the poor results aren't his fault? How can you credit him with positive results while ignoring negative ones?

The Brewers meanwhile, hired Pat Murphy, whose one partial year of managerial experience resulted in a 42-54 record with the 2015 San Diego Padres. They're in first place. 

MILWAUKEE - OCTOBER 04: Milwaukee Brewers manager Craig Counsell is seen prior to Game Two of the Wild Card Series against the Arizona Diamondbacks at American Family Field on October 04, 2023 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)

Bob Melvin And The San Francisco Giants 

Bob Melvin was widely praised after guiding the 2022 San Diego Padres to the NLCS. Affectionately nicknamed "BoMel" by Padres fans, he was viewed as a stabilizing voice in a clubhouse full of stars and egos.

One year later, the Padres were stumbling to an 82-80 record with Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Blake Snell, Josh Hader and Yu Darvish. And reports from the clubhouse made it seem like internal team relations were a disaster. 

READ: The Padres Clubhouse Culture Sounds Like An Absolute Disaster

Melvin bolted for San Francisco, with the Giants giving him another big deal based on his track record. How's it going so far? 

The Giants are 19-24, sitting in fourth place in the NL West, effectively eliminated from the division race thanks to being nine games behind the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers. Despite investments in Jung Hoo Lee, Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler and Michael Conforto, the Giants have just a 21% chance of making the playoffs.

They've also dealt with an inordinate number of injuries, likely influencing their results. But that proves the point again, doesn't it? If injuries to key players are what really matters to on-field success, why pay a fortune for an experienced manager? They can't prevent injuries or make players heal faster. So why waste the money?

SCOTTSDALE, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 22: Manager Bob Melvin #6 of the San Francisco Giants watches a bullpen session during the San Francisco Giants Spring Training workout at Scottsdale Stadium on February 22, 2024 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by Andy Kuno/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images)

Managers Aren't Irrelevant, But They Are Overrated

None of this is to say that managers don't matter. Player relationships are key, building a good clubhouse is important, and knowing when and how to make decisions on substations and relievers is valuable.

But it's clear that the impact they make on the game is limited, at best. The Rangers won the World Series thanks in part to a magical Corey Seager home run in game 1. Bochy had nothing to do with that, Seager did. Managers don't get to call the "hit one of the most impactful home runs in World Series history" play, because if they did, every manager would be doing it on every postseason at bat.

Counsell, Melvin and Bochy are all probably "better" than the average manager out there. They may be able to synthesize new analytics with old methodology better than other managers. But we learn, year after year, that those skills aren't quantifiable. Maybe it's worth one win to a team throughout the year. Maybe less.

One thing's for certain though; it isn't worth spending money on managers that could have been invested in players.