Houston, We've Got A Problem: The Astros Are In Serious Trouble
The Houston Astros in 2023 needed all 162 games and the benefit of a tiebreaker to win the American League West over the eventual World Series champion Texas Rangers.
After officially clinching their sixth division title in seven seasons, Astros star third baseman Alex Bregman gave what became an infamous locker room speech. "Everyone was wondering what would happen if the 'Stros didn't win the division. I guess we'll never know," Bregman said before spraying champagne.
Rangers shortstop and World Series MVP Corey Seager even referenced those comments during his team's parade after the season.
READ: Corey Seager Takes Perfectly Subtle Dig At Astros During Rangers World Series Parade
Well we're now almost halfway through the 2024 season and, someone tell Alex Bregman, it sure looks like we're about to find out what happens when the ‘Stros don't win the division. And in an even more surprising turn of events, potentially don't even make the postseason at all.
Washington D.C. - Houston Astros third base Alex Bregman stands on the dugout steps prior to batting against the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Nationals Park in April. Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Houston Astros Struggling Halfway Through 2024
As of Wednesday afternoon, the Astros are just 34-40, nine games behind the first-place Seattle Mariners. Per Fangraphs, they have just a 13 percent chance of winning the division. But even that undersells just how dire their situation is.
Even with the addition of a third wild card spot several years ago, Houston's also six and a half games out of a playoff spot. And it's not just the deficit; they're behind the Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays and tied with the Rangers and Detroit Tigers in the wild card chase. That's a lot of teams to pass, just to get into position to challenge the Kansas City Royals.
It's a long season and the Astros have the talent to recover, but Fangraphs gives them a 68 percent chance of missing postseason baseball entirely. So how did it get this bad?
Over the past six or seven seasons of Astros dominance, they've relied heavily on developing quality starting pitching and supplanting it with deep bullpens. But in 2024, much of their pitching depth has either dramatically underperformed, regressed substantially, or dealt with injuries. And then on Tuesday, they lost 41-year-old Justin Verlander to the injured list with neck discomfort, further eroding their rotation.
Outside of Ronel Blanco and Framber Valdez, the Astros staff has ranged from mediocre to well below average. Hunter Brown has a 4.72 ERA, Spencer Arrighetti has a 6.37 in 12 starts. Even Verlander has shown signs of age; he's walking more hitters and his strikeout rate is the lowest it's been since 2015. Christian Javier had Tommy John surgery, and J.P. France has been atrocious in five starts as a replacement.
Even the bullpen, despite the addition of Josh Hader, has been disappointing. Bryan Abreu has been worth zero wins above replacement and Rafael Montero has actually cost his team nearly a full win. Ryan Pressly's battled bad luck, but still has a 4.85 ERA.
And then there's the offense.
Alex Bregman is having the worst season of his career, Jeremy Pena's offense has been below average, and the big three of Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez haven't been enough to carry the lack of depth elsewhere. Poor defensive and baserunning metrics have hurt the Astros around the margins as well.
With just over a month to go before the trade deadline, could we see the Astros, for the first time in years, become sellers? The relative mediocrity of the American League field could push them to buy and make another run. But Bregman is a free agent after the season, and the Rangers can reasonably expect to improve with Jacob DeGrom and Max Scherzer getting closer to returning.
Year after year, the Astros have found a way to be at the top of their division, despite injuries or departures or underperformance. But in 2024, the magic may have run out. In a few short months, we likely won't have to wonder what happens if the ‘Stros don’t win the division.