The Houston Astros Have Erased The Seattle Mariners' 10-Game Division Lead - In A Month
It's an oft-repeated cliché that the Major League Baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint. But the 2024 Houston Astros might be proof that some clichés exist for a reason.
Entering play on June 19, the Astros were 10 games behind the first-place Seattle Mariners. Seattle was 44-31, with the Astros sitting in a second-place tie at 33-40. Seven games under .500, 10 games back, injuries ravaging their starting rotation…it was reasonable to believe then that Houston's chances of winning the American League West were virtually nonexistent.
Yet as of July 20, and the Astros after a 3-0 win over Luis Castillo and the Mariners, Houston now sits in first place in its division by percentage points. At 51-46, the Astros are now squarely in playoff position, ahead of the 52-47 Mariners.
In one month, 10 games were made up in the standings. How in the world did we get here?
HOUSTON - New York Yankees right fielder Juan Soto (22) is out as Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve throws to first to complete a double play in March at Minute Maid Park. Photo: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Houston Astros Take Off, While Mariners Struggle
Starting June 19, the Astros have the best record in the American League at 18-6, while the Mariners have collapsed, with an 8-16 record.
And the difference in record exemplifies how much luck plays a role in determining outcomes in baseball. Houston has thoroughly dominated the opposition since late June, scoring 141 runs while allowing just 91. The Astros have played like a team that should win 70 percent of its games, and they've won 75 percent of them.
The Mariners though, have scored 83 runs while allowing 89. That's an "expected" 47 percent winning percentage. Instead, they've won just 33 percent of their games. The pitching staff has remained one of the best in baseball, but the offense has completely evaporated.
Sure enough, that's led to a number of close losses; games the Mariners were winning through the first few months of the season.
At one point, just a few weeks ago, the Mariners had nearly 90 percent probability of winning the American League West. Entering Saturday, the Astros had completely flipped that, pulling ahead at 52.6 percent to 41.2 percent.
MLB Division Odds (Fangraphs)
So what happens now?
The Astros aren't this good, and the Mariners aren't this bad. Houston's offense has one of baseball's highest batting averages on balls in play since June 19, which generally isn't a repeatable skill. They've hit .300 with runners in scoring position, while the Mariners have hit just .179.
Those numbers won't last. But the Astros have shown that their season is and was far from over, giving the front office some important security with the trade deadline just 10 days away. Similarly, the Mariners know that even after playing their worst baseball of the season, they're in a tie for first place. It really is a marathon.