Have The Philadelphia Phillies Figured Out A Formula For MLB Postseason Success?
After another impressive offensive showing on Tuesday, the Philadelphia Phillies are just two wins away from a second consecutive World Series appearance.
While the Arizona Diamondbacks are far from eliminated, the Phillies seem to be in the driver's seat in yet another postseason series, after sending the Atlanta Braves home in the NLDS. For an organization that won just 87 games in 2022 and 90 games in 2023, it seems like Philadelphia's over-performed in the playoffs relative to their regular season level.
So how are they doing it? Well, it's a relentless offensive attack.
And it's fair to wonder if other teams may take notice going forward.
The Phillies have hit 17 home runs in the past five games, the most of any team over that stretch in MLB postseason history.
That's not an accident either; the front office and team ownership have prioritized one key factor in building the roster: players whose best position is in the batters box.
Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Alec Bohm and Bryce Harper are generally not known for their defensive prowess, but have made key offensive contributions in October. The question then becomes, should teams prioritize that kind of roster construction moving forward?
PHILADELPHIA, PA - OCTOBER 11: Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies looks at Orlando Arcia #11 of the Atlanta Braves after he hits a three run home run during the third inning of Game 3 of the NLDS against the Atlanta Braves on October 11, 2023 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Small Sample Sizes Help Phillies Offense
Teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers or Tampa Bay Rays over the past several seasons have put together sustainable, consistent regular season excellence.
The Rays have won 285 regular season games over the past three seasons. They've gone 1-7 in their postseason appearances.
The Dodgers were even better, winning 317 regular season games from 2021-2023. After a 6-6 2021 playoff run, they've gone 1-6 in October in 2022 and 2023 making them just 7-12 overall. There could be any number of potential explanations for that type of disappointment; struggles from key players like Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, bullpen meltdowns, or injuries weakening the starting rotation.
But another potential explanation could be different roster construction philosophies.
The Dodgers and Rays approach players similarly, looking to maximize value at key positions. Utility and versatility are prized, leading to players like Chris Taylor, Yandy Diaz, David Peralta, Kiké Hernández and other similar players playing significant roles.
And in the regular season, it works. By maximizing depth, platooning and securing players whose value comes from being slightly above average at numerous positions, they, especially the Dodgers, have excelled in difficult divisions.
Then October happens. Higher velocity, stronger arms, more aggressive bullpen management - whatever the case may be, both teams have struggled the past few seasons post-2020. The Phillies though, have made the NLCS in two consecutive seasons and look poised to return to the World Series. Far from intricate, meticulous roster building, they've approached team construction with brute force. Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos...all major free agent signings with, outside of Turner, marginal positional value.
But they sure do hit a lot.
Postseason Randomness
Outside of a few hardcore, old school baseball announcers, most within the game now acknowledge that the MLB playoffs are exceptionally random. Sample sizes after a 162-game regular season compress to a few game series.
The gap between teams that win 55% of their games and 60%, while large over a six-month period, are functionally irrelevant in a best-of-three or best-of-five. But if there is a way for teams to give themselves a marginal boost in postseason probability, say just 5-10% of winning a series, maybe it's building a team of players with a history of offensive excellence.
If you feel confident about the offensive skill level of say, five players out of nine in the lineup, maybe two out of the five have a good series. Or three. And that could be enough to carry a team in a small sample size series.
Maybe it's just random that the Phillies have overachieved relative to their regular seasons. Or maybe there's a slight, 5% advantage they get from having a lineup where the majority of players have years of offensive success to point to. The Braves, in theory, would also seem to have the same advantages. But they've dealt with the dreaded NLDS layoff for two consecutive years. On top of benefitting from some fluky, career best performances from players without the track record to match.
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The Phillies could still, quite easily, lose this series, or advance to the World Series only to fall again to another team from Texas. But with teams like the Dodgers sitting home, holding "what went wrong" press conferences, maybe there's something to learn from their postseason success. Especially with Shohei Ohtani set to reach free agency in two weeks.