Will Wisconsin's Basketball Coach Be Fired? The Answer Is Likely Simple

Will Wisconsin fire Greg Gard at the end of the basketball season?

It's a question millions of Wisconsin Badgers fans have ahead of the team starting postseason play. This year has been nothing short of an absolute disaster.

A year that appeared to be filled with so much hope and optimism turned into a nightmare once February started. The Badgers are 19-12 going into the B1G tourney, 11-9 in conference play and 3-8 in the team's last 11 games.

It feels like a different lifetime when the Badgers were ranked sixth in America and competing for a number one seed. So, will Greg Gard be replaced?

Let's unpack some different scenarios ranked by worst to best for Gard's job status.

Will the Wisconsin Badgers fire Greg Gard? (Credit: Kayla Wolf-USA TODAY Sports)

Scenario one: Wisconsin loses opening round of the B1G Tournament and 1st round of the NCAA Tournament.

This is the only scenario where Gard will be sweating bullets over his future in Madison. I'd give Gard getting fired a 50% chance of happening if the Badgers lose to the winner of Maryland/Rutgers and immediately follow that up with a first round exit in the NCAA tournament.

That would have the Badgers finishing 19-14 on the season after not making the tournament at all last season. Fans will have pitchforks in the streets marching on the AD's office demanding a change if this happens.

Wisconsin fans don't expect to compete for national titles season after season. No fan is that delusional, but multiple disappointing seasons over the span of just a few years isn't acceptable.

A first round exit in the B1G Tournament and NCAA Tournament will have Greg Gard looking over his shoulder, and he probably should be fired if this scenario plays out.

Status: Coin flip.

Scenario two: Wisconsin makes B1G Tournament run but loses first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

This scenario will buy Gard some immediate breathing room, BUT also guarantee his seat is scorching hot when the 2024-25 season gets here.

If Wisconsin makes it to this weekend in the B1G Tournament, then Gard isn't losing his job, no matter what happens in the NCAA Tournament.

However, a loss during the opening two rounds will make sure he's on the hot seat going into next season.

Status: Safe, but on the shortest leash imaginable.

What does Greg Gard need to do to keep his job? (Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports)

Scenario three: Wisconsin doesn't make a B1G Tournament run but makes the Sweet 16.

This is a fun scenario to break down because fans will be outraged going into the NCAA Tournament and then will immediately calm down as soon as Wisconsin makes the Sweet 16.

The program last made the Sweet 16 in 2017. It shouldn't feel like an accomplishment, but after the disaster that the postseason has been for Wisconsin since then, fans will take it with open arms.

Greg Gard is soundly safe if this scenario plays out.

Status: Safe and some breathing room going into next season.

Scenario four: Wisconsin makes a B1G Tournament run and makes the Sweet 16.

This scenario will have fans, once again, singing Gard's praises. If Wisconsin makes the B1G title game AND makes the Sweet 16, then Gard will probably end up with a raise.

Do I think this scenario is likely given the past six weeks and the changes in Wisconsin basketball? No, but it's one that absolutely guarantees Greg Gard doesn't go anywhere.

His job is 100% safe if Wisconsin makes it to Sunday in the Big Ten Tournament and wins two NCAA Tournament games.

Status: Rock solidly safe.

Can Wisconsin make a tournament run? (Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports)

Scenario five: Wisconsin wins the B1G Tournament and makes the Elite Eight or better.

While we're cooking up scenarios, we might as well throw out an absolute dream. Wisconsin shocking the Big Ten by winning the conference tournament and then winning three straight NCAA Tournament games would ensure Greg Gard isn't going anywhere for at least a couple more years.

The last Elite Eight appearance was in 2015 when the Badgers lost in the title game to Duke. If Greg Gard gets to the Elite Eight or better after winning the Big Ten, then he'll be comically safe.

The odds of this scenario are comically low, and thus, I wouldn't get your hopes up.

Status: Safe with a healthy contract extension.

What do you agree with or disagree with? Let me know at David.Hookstead@outkick.com, and I speak for all Wisconsin fans when I say let's hope like hell scenario one or two isn't how this ends up unfolding.