Former Steelers GM Inaccurately Bashes ‘Analytics’

Kevin Colbert, the former general manager of the Pittsburgh Steelers absolutely roasted the analytical movement within the NFL during a recent podcast interview.

And while he may have had some good points about the reliance on numbers within professional sports, he also missed some other key points that undercut his argument. According to Steelers Depot, Colbert was asked during an appearance on The North Carolina Athletic Podcast whether or not he believes analytics are too prevalent in the modern NFL game.

"I do," Colbert said. "At the end of my career with the Steelers, obviously it came into play, and I used to encourage our younger scouts and say, ‘Keep me up to date. Tell me what I'm missing.' We had analytics people, and I used to challenge them. I said, ‘When you guys can measure the intangibles, let me know.’ Because that's the most important thing."

He applied those criticisms to in-game management as well, such as 4th down calls or which players to trust in key situations.

"You as the coach or you as that player has to be able to make critical decisions under pressure situations. And I don't think there's any analytic that can measure that," Colbert said. "I don't think there's an intangible that can measure it, it's just that feel that that coach may have to have at a certain point and trust in his player to make that play in a critical situation." 

Except we do have ways to measure player skill. And that, not intangibles, is the most important thing.

Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell. (Credit: USA Today Sports Network)

Analytics Is Just A Fancy Term For Numbers

Every team in the NFL uses "analytics" to make decisions. Because analytics is just another word for numbers.

The choice that teams make, and what separates good front offices from bad ones, is which numbers they choose to use in their evaluations and decision making. There are the simplistic stats that give a surface level overview of what's happened. The surface level stats the Colbert and people like him use, like touchdowns and interceptions.

But sports are a forward-looking enterprise. And what has happened previously may not have much to do with what will happen going forward. That disconnect is why "new" analytics were constructed; to help identify the underlying talent level of individual players, and strengths and weaknesses of the teams as a whole.

When it comes to making 4th down decisions, what "analytics" means is simply taking the probability of scoring more points if you pick up a 4th down compared to punting, while accounting for the possibility of a turnover on downs. It doesn't guarantee anything, or ensure that a coach is making the right choice. It provides data to incorporate into decision making. And any good coach will then incorporate that data with the intangibles that can't be measured.

Health, seasonal standings, crowd, whatever it may be. But relying solely on intangibles is nonsense, because as we've seen time and time again in sports, those supposed intangibles change over time. Players who were previously "clutch" strike out or commit a turnover in a key spot. Other players who "choked" come through in a big spot. Using numbers and feel is key. Ignoring numbers however, is backward and overly simplistic. Sorry Kevin.