If Florida Loses To Miss State, That Should Be It For Billy Napier, And Scott Stricklin Won't Make Next Hire

It might be one of the worst games of the day in college football on Saturday, but Florida versus Mississippi State might be the most intriguing game of the slate for only one reason, and that's Billy Napier. 

Let me be clear, there is no reason why Napier should be coaching the Gators on Sunday afternoon if they return home to Gainesville carrying a loss. A lackluster performance against Mississippi State would be the final nail in the coffin for the Gators head coach, at least from a supporters' standpoint. 

When we talk about Florida Gators football, it usually ends with a discussion about how far the football program has fallen over the last few years. It's hard to complain when you're appearing in ‘New Years Six’ bowl games, which would now qualify as the college football playoff. But the program is nowhere near those types of conversations any longer, which is where Dan Mullen had them before a bad season left him without a job. 

Now let's be honest, there was a lot more to the Dan Mullen firing than a win-loss record. So when we look at what Billy Napier has when it comes to personnel and finances spent on assistant coaches and staff members, folks who donate a lot of money to the school have started wondering where their return on investment is. You know, the one that was promised when Napier took over the Florida program and needed enough NIL money to compete at the highest level of the SEC. 

Obviously, there have been cracks in the NIL foundation. It's almost as if the Gators are taking $100 dollar bills and burning them onsite weekly. But there is no reason why Florida should leave Starkville on Saturday with a loss, and I'm just talking about the talent on both rosters. For Jeff Lebby, he will get things headed in the right direction at Mississippi State in my opinion. 

And it doesn't hurt when you announce an $8 million donation a few days after getting destroyed by Toledo. 

But on the opposite sideline, Billy Napier is hanging on by a thread, and some folks inside the athletic department should not be sleeping well at night given the current circumstances. Since being hired at Florida, Billy Napier is 6-11 against SEC opponents and 12-16 overall, which includes losses to Arkansas, Kentucky, Vanderbilt over the past two seasons. While Florida was trying to figure out how to turn its program around, Tennessee and Missouri have raced past them, waving on their way by. 

Now, Florida fans have to hope that their favorite team doesn't drop a game to a team that was beaten 41-17 by a MAC school at home last week. This is where the football program now sits, and the future doesn't look much better, especially with UCF and Tennessee on the schedule following a ‘bye-week’. 

Simply put, there should be a decision made on the way back home if they were to lose against the Bulldogs. There is no better time to make that call. In this age of college athletics, you can no longer wait until the end of the season. Would you like for UCF to bring 20,000 fans into the Swamp in two weeks because Florida supporters have now become so apathetic that they aren't willing to buy a ticket for an in-state game against Gus Malzahn? 

Should AD Scott Stricklin be the one to make another coaching hire?

Who Would Be Making The Decision On Gators' Coaching Situation? 

If the Florida administration and interim President Kent Fuchs want to make it look like Scott Stricklin is making this decision, and the next hire, then have at it. You can try to present a united front all you want, but this decision regarding the future of Florida football is going to be made by the folks who are getting constant phone-calls to donate money, according to sources with knowledge of the ongoing predicament in Gainesville. 

In what world should an athletic director get the opportunity to make three hires for the most powerful position at a university like Florida? This is the thinking of a number of people close to the unfolding situation inside the athletic department and on campus. Scott Stricklin fired Jim McElwain, then hired his buddy Dan Mullen from Mississippi State, who went 34-15 during his four seasons in Gainesville, which included three appearances in New Years Six bowl games. After firing Mullen, Stricklin decided that Billy Napier had the right pedigree to lead Florida into the future, after seeing the results he produced at Louisiana. 

GAINESVILLE - Head coach Billy Napier of the Florida Gators arrives before the start of a game against the Miami Hurricanes at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on August 31, 2024. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)

Now, heading into his 29th game as head coach, Billy Napier is very close to being shown the door.

In speaking with multiple sources over the past few days, the sentiment from those close to the ongoing situation is that if Florida wants those checks to continue coming in, then Scott Stricklin isn't getting a third chance at steering the program back in the ‘right direction’. 

As for Stricklin, staying on as athletic director and making the next hire are two different situations. 

Speaking with one Power-4 athletic director, they made it clear how everything has changed, and having the trust of the folks donating money and the fans is such an important piece of the puzzle right now, especially with where college athletics is going. 

"Some AD's only get one chance to get things right, especially if you add in problems with other athletic programs on the campus," one Power-4 AD mentioned to OutKick. "I know the boosters wouldn't allow me to make three hires for the head football coach, especially with the direction we are headed towards now in college athletics with revenue sharing, and the money needed to compete. We're not just talking about paying players. We've got stadiums to pay for, facility upgrades, staff payroll, and don't forget trying to make the fan-base happy." 

The University of Florida can do everything it can to make this look like its current AD is making all the tough decisions regarding the future stability of its football program. But if Billy Napier were to lose on Saturday against Mississippi State, you can bet the folks who have their names on the side of buildings or at the bottom of the wire-transfer to the NIL fund will be the ones making the call on the Gators' future. 

But sure, they can let anybody make the announcement.