Definitive NFL Tier List: Five Elite Teams, Three Great Teams & Mostly Everyone Else Is Just Bad
The NFL regular season is nearly complete. Sad face. I wait all year for this season and it goes by so quickly. However, the good news is that we have almost all of the information we need to make our predictions for the rest of the year.
Personally, I've seen enough to make my official declarations. I believe there are eight-ish teams competing for the Lombardi Trophy this year. Five of those teams have a better shot than the other three. But, after those eight, we could rank the rest of the NFL in practically any order.
However, that wouldn't be as fun. So, let's break the entire league into the definitive tiered rankings.
Elite NFL Teams
San Francisco 49ers
There's no team in the NFL better than the 49ers. That's objectively true. Their offense is on a near-historic pace. The unit has produced nearly 210 expected points according to Pro Football reference. That's over 60 points higher than the next-closest team (Dallas Cowboys, 147).
Oh, and their defense is Top 7 in the league as well. No team boasts the balance that the 49ers do on both sides of the ball. They are the favorite to win the Super Bowl, and they should be.
Buffalo Bills
Yeah, I get it. Everyone is suddenly jumping on board with Buffalo now that they're trendy again. But, if you follow my writing, you know that I never got off the train. In fact, I had some intense arguments with people that Buffalo had a horrible string of bad luck and Josh Allen remained the second-best QB in the NFL.
They laughed then, but who's laughing now?? The Buffalo Bills are, in my opinion, the second-best team in the league. Josh Allen is playing great -- no surprise there -- and his turnover issues are way overblown. The Bills play the Chargers and Patriots over the next two weeks, games they should win easily, and then a Week 18 showdown with the Miami Dolphins. Speaking of...
Miami Dolphins
As a closet lifelong Miami Dolphins fan, I really try to stay objective around the team. My job is to (mostly) write about the NFL. Showing bias towards one team skews everything else. Sometimes, though, I am OVERLY negative about the Dolphins to prove that I'm not biased. Which, then, just makes me biased.
But, it's time to admit that Miami is among the elite teams in the NFL. The return of Jalen Ramsey provided a huge boost to a defense that played without three starters in the secondary. Thankfully for the Dolphins, they faced the Jets anemic offense. They need to get healthy on the backend and obviously Tyreek Hill needs to get healthy as well.
Mike McDaniel, who comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, took important lessons from his mentor. The biggest one, of course, being how to win with a limited quarterback. Tua Tagovailoa is much more Brock Purdy than he is Josh Allen, but that can be enough for Miami to hoist the trophy.
Dallas Cowboys
"How can you call the Dallas Cowboys elite after they got boat-raced by Buffalo!?" Everyone reading this right now, I assume.
Simple: they got smoked by a slightly better team thanks to a few big-time early breaks. As someone who bet Buffalo in that contest, I watched very closely. There were a few penalties in the first quarter that drastically changed the dynamic of the game.
That's not to say Buffalo didn't deserve to win because they did. However, I don't think it was nearly as bad as the final scored indicated. There are definitely questions about the ability for the Cowboys when it comes to playing outdoors in the winter. That's an issue. However, there's only one NFC contender where that issue comes into play: Philadelphia.
Dallas really needs to win the NFC East, which takes the only potential cold-weather outdoor playoff game off the table. Still, the stats tell the story: Dallas is elite. They have a Top 5 offense and defense in EPA/play.
Baltimore Ravens
When Kansas City isn't an elite team in the AFC, you know the conference is stacked. But, right now, they are the fourth-best team. And, it's not all that close. Baltimore, like Dallas, is great on both sides of the ball. Their offense falls just outside the Top 5, but their defense is #2.
I have questions about the long-term viability of Lamar Jackson, but there's no question he's a game-changer when healthy. Though he struggles at times throwing the football, that run threat is a real problem for almost every NFL defense.
A healthy and willing-to-run Lamar Jackson coupled with an elite defense makes the Baltimore Ravens one of the best teams in the NFL. (Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Losing Mark Andrews hurt them quite a bit, but their ability to run the ball and play elite defense makes them a tough team to beat. As long as Jackson doesn't get hurt again. That's always a very real possibility.
Great NFL Teams
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs aren't necessarily great, but they have Patrick Mahomes. As long as he's playing quarterback, Kansas City can win the Super Bowl. That's what a difference-maker he is on the football field. In fact -- and I know people won't love this take -- he deserves NFL MVP this year.
If Mahomes weren't the Chiefs quarterback, I'm not sure they'd have five wins. He's that important. If San Francisco lost Brock Purdy, they'd be worse but would they be that much worse? I just can't count out Mahomes doing some crazy stuff come January and willing the Chiefs to a few playoff victories. Plus, their defense is pretty good.
Philadelphia Eagles
I tried to tell everyone weeks ago that the Eagles' record wasn't indicative of who they were as a team. I felt the same way about Buffalo, except in the opposite direction. Here's the piece that I think a lot of NFL analysts miss: wins and losses aren't a great predictive stat.
There's this common refrain that you hear among NFL people: "You are what your record says you are." Cris Collinsworth repeated that during Sunday Night Football between the Ravens and Jaguars. That phrase is both true and false. It's true because we use win-loss record to determine a team's standing and playoff position.
It's false, though, because not all wins and losses are created equally. Football is a tough game to predict because the ball bounces in weird ways and refereeing is VERY subjective. Calls and turnovers frequently change games. However, those aren't things that teams can count on in the long-run.
Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles are still great, but they're not an elite NFL team this season. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
The Eagles are still a great team, but Jalen Hurts isn't playing as well as he did last season. That's not a surprise. He played incredible last year and that will probably be the best year in his NFL career. This season is more like what an average Hurts season probably looks like.
That's why many of us tried to pump the brakes when certain outlets crowned Hurts among the game's elite quarterbacks. He's good. Not elite.
Detroit Lions
I was hesitant to put the Lions here, but I think there's a scenario where they can win the Super Bowl. They aren't as likely as any of the six teams ahead of them, but I do believe they are much more likely than any team behind them. They're kind of in a purgatory realm where they don't really fit in this tier or the one below it.
Average NFL Teams
This is a group of teams that aren't good and aren't bad. They just ... are.
Los Angeles Rams
I have the Rams as the best team in this group. I don't think they have quite enough to win the Super Bowl, but they're the "best of the rest" if you will. They can get frisky in the playoffs and win a game, but they're just not quite at the level of the 49ers, Cowboys and Eagles. They might be around where the Lions are, which is funny since the two teams swapped quarterbacks. Actually, a Lions-Rams Wild Card matchup would be a fun watch.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags were fun for a bit, but they're just not deep enough to compete with the league's elite. They had some tough luck against the Ravens, and I think that game was closer than the final score, but I also never felt like they were going to win. However, they might be able to sneak in a playoff win depending on how the AFC seeding falls.
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence were fun for awhile, but they're just not at the level of the top teams in the AFC. (Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Cleveland Browns
Joe Flacco is a fun story and the Browns defense is the best in the NFL. But, that's just not enough to win in today's game. They're probably going to make the playoffs and networks will fight over not wanting that game. It's going to be a tough watch no matter who they play.
Cincinnati Bengals
It really sucks that Joe Burrow got hurt. This Cincinnati team was poised for another late-season push, but they just can't win anything meaningful without him. In fact, the play of Jake Browning is a double-edged sword for Bengals fans. He's not bad enough to tank the team to get them into a high draft slot, but not good enough to win anything meaningful.
Minnesota Vikings
It really sucks that Kirk Cousins got hurt. This Minnesota team was poised for a late-season push, but they just can't win anything meaningful without him. Yeah, I just wrote that about Cincinnati. It applies perfectly to both teams and I'm lazy.
Houston Texans
The Texans are going to be very good very soon. But, they're not quite there yet. With a healthy C.J. Stroud, they'll make for a very fun playoff game if they get in. I just can't see a world where they make a deep run. Next year, though? Look out.
Mediocre NFL Teams
These teams are also not really good or bad, but they are closer to bad than they are to good.
Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love has his moments, but he's not consistent enough for this team to make a playoff run. Plus, their defense isn't very good. They're not quite a bad NFL team, but they're just not good either.
Seattle Seahawks
I could repeat myself again here, since Seattle and Green Bay are virtually the same team. Poor defense, quarterback who has moments but can't consistently put drives together over the long-term.
Denver Broncos
Denver is the poster child for the "you are what your record says you are" being an outdated and mostly incorrect platitude. I'll give them mediocre over bad because Russell Wilson looks OK. But, they are wildly overrated and have had the best turnover luck of any team in the NFL this season.
Sean Payton is an overrated NFL head coach. (Photo by RJ Sangosti/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images)
They get to finish the season with three bad teams: The Patriots, Chargers and Raiders. Honestly, I hope they make the playoffs so they can get absolutely blown out of the building and everyone can see what I've been trying to say about this team all year: they aren't very good and Sean Payton is overrated.
Indianapolis Colts
I toggled back-and-forth on whether or not to include the Colts here but ultimately decided that they earned a spot in the mediocre tier. Congratulations, Colts! Shane Steichen has actually done a phenomenal job while starting Gardner Minshew with a roster bereft of much talent thanks to terrible GM decisions.
The NFC South, minus the Carolina Panthers (who are bad)
Someone has to win this division, but let's be honest: none of these teams is above mediocre. They're battling it out to see which team will host the NFC East loser in the Wild Card round and then get curb stomped in their own building. For what it's worth, I think the Buccaneers are slightly better than the other two and, quite honestly, the Falcons are bad. But, I'm lazy and it's easier to group them all together.
Bad NFL Teams
Everyone else
If you don't see a team listed above, it's because I think that team is bad and I'm not going to waste time in December writing about bad football teams. I give Mike Tomlin a lot of credit for managing the Steelers to a 7-7 record because their roster STINKS.
Everyone is just bad. And, if you're counting at home, I've got 11 of the 32 NFL teams as BAD football teams. That's not ideal for the league. Usually, there are 3-4 teams that are way worse than everyone else. And, sure, we could parse out some of the teams that are slightly worse. But, honestly, there are far too many bad teams with far too many bad quarterbacks in the league right now.
I know we all hate the rules that overly protect quarterbacks, but do you really want to sit through another season of Tommy DeVito, Zach Wilson, Easton Stick, Jake Browning, Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens, Mitch Trubisky, Gardner Minshew, Davis Mills, Joe Flacco, P.J. Walker, and Aidan O'Connell?
I sure as hell don't.