The Cubs Hired The Highest Paid Manager In MLB And Got Worse

The 2024 season has made it abundantly clear that, despite how much credit they get when things go right, managers don't matter much in Major League Baseball.

Perhaps the best example comes from the Chicago Cubs and new manager Craig Counsell. Counsell had been widely regarded as one of the best managers in the sport, thanks to a successful tenure with the Milwaukee Brewers. Every year, the Brewers seemed to over-perform expectations, with much of the credit given to Counsell's leadership and in-game management.

When his contract with Milwaukee expired in November 2023, the Cubs made him an offer he couldn't refuse: become the highest paid manager in the sport. Unsurprisingly, he took it.

READ: New Cubs Manager Craig Counsell Would Have Been The Highest Paid Player On The Oakland A’s

From the Cubs perspective, the logic was clear: hire Counsell, improve in the standings thanks to the same leadership and management he brought to Milwaukee. In fact, they were so certain that Counsell would help the Cubs get better they were willing to fire an existing manager, David Ross, in order to hire him.

We're now halfway through the 2024 season and it's been an abject failure, to put it mildly.

Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell. Photo: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Chicago Cubs Wildly Under-Performing Preseason Expectations

To be fair to Counsell and Cubs management, there is still half a season to go before comprehensive conclusions can be reached. But after Monday night's disastrous loss to the San Francisco Giants, the Cubs now sit in last place in the NL Central, nine games behind the first place…Milwaukee Brewers.

Chicago's now 37-42, a half game behind the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Cubs have been outscored by 21 runs on the season, are 15-24 on the road and 13-20 against teams with a winning record. 

The bullpen, where managerial decision-making is most evident, has been a trainwreck. The 4.47 ERA ranks 23rd in MLB, and per Fangraphs, the collective bullpen has had a negative wins above replacement. The vast majority of the blame should be placed on the players themselves, of course, but Counsell's choices haven't exactly been popular.

During Monday night's loss, Cubs fans took to X to complain after a series of bullpen decisions backfired in rapid succession. 

The 2023 Cubs finished 83-79, one game out of a playoff spot, then reinvested by bringing back Cody Bellinger, signing Shota Imanaga, and acquiring Michael Busch from the Dodgers. Combined with hiring Counsell, you'd expect the Cubs to take a step forward.

Instead, they're on a 76-win pace, a six-game decline from 2023. 

Managers Just Don't Matter

So how much of the blame should be placed on Counsell? 

Almost none of it. That's just how baseball works. The players on the field determine the outcome, not the managers. 

Sure, they make substitutions and lineup decisions, but over the course of a season, it's hard to quantify how much impact that actually has. It's not as if Counsell's forgotten how to manage over the winter, and he was "talented" enough to lead his teams to a .542 winning percentage since 2018.

But it's extremely hard to separate his performance from that of his players, or the contributions of the front office who constructed the roster. Maybe this 2024 Cubs team is playing as well as it could, given player limitations. Or maybe Counsell's cost them a win or two with poor bullpen management. 

Or maybe he's actually still given Chicago an extra win or two, but the team's performance has been that bad. That's the point though. It's impossible to tell. Because managers simply don't matter very much.