Colin Cowherd Is The Biggest Winner in Pat McAfee-ESPN Partnership

Fox Sports overhauled its cable network in 2015, replacing the goofy, over-the-top Fox Sports 1 with the more personality, debate-focused FS1.

FS1 tasked Jamie Horowitz, the architect of Skip Bayless and Stephen A. Smith's success at ESPN, to build a sports-talk vertical to compete with ESPN.

Sort of.

No one realistically anticipated FS1 would challenge ESPN for industry superiority. ESPN had a head start of almost 40 years. ESPN is the default -- the Coca-Cola of sports commentary, if you will.

Most importantly, ESPN broadcasts live sports -- the NFL, NBA, college football, etc -- which increases its reach by tens of millions. FS1 does not air marquee live sporting events, impeding the ability to ever reach more than a few hundred thousand viewers.

Horowitz understood that. His goal was more modest, to provide sports fans with an edgier alternative with the hope of weakening -- not overtaking -- ESPN's dominance in sports talk.

He first poached Colin Cowherd and Skip Bayless from ESPN to assist in that mission. He then hired Jason Whitlock.

FS1 has continued to honor Horowitz's vision, even after his surprise ousting in 2017, adding former ESPN hosts like Keyshawn Johnson, Rachel Nichols, and Michael Irvin.

Since 2015, most shows on FS1 have averaged between 100,000 to 150,000 viewers, compared to about 300,000 to 350,000 on ESPN. (Some ESPN shows, like PTI, draw audiences substantially higher.)

All factors considered, neither network was losing sleep over that 3-1 ratio. The numbers were what they were.

Then came last fall.

ESPN signed Pat McAfee to a multi-platform contract worth $17 million a year in September. The network simulcasts his daily podcast from 12-2 pm ET as part of the deal, opposite Colin Cowherd on FS1.

And while McAfee edges Cowherd in overall viewership, the gap between ESPN and FS1 during the hours in which they compete is the smallest since the start of the rivalry nearly a decade ago.

Cowherd has experienced record ratings on FS1 since McAfee's debut on ESPN.

December was The Herd's most-watched month since its debut in 2015. Monday was the show's most-watched telecast, at 318,000.

The Herd's ratings increased by 19 percent in 2023; McAfee shows declined 12 percent from SportsCenter in the same window.

Translation: a larger-than-expected number of former SportsCenter viewers have converted into viewers of Cowherd.

There are likely several factors for that.

The Herd is made for television. The Pat McAfee Show is made for YouTube.

The Herd is formatted with graphics plastered across the screen. McAfee's show feels like a bunch of guys hanging out in a man cave with cameras surrounding them.

Cowherd's segments are quick and produced. McAfee's segments are long and unscripted.

That's not to say Cowherd's show is better than McAfee's. That is to say, it's a better television presentation.

Consequently, Cowherd's bump has elevated the programs that follow him in the FS1 lineup. That's how television, usually, works. Viewership trickles up.

You can read the official data below:

We can confidently attribute the recent success of First Things First and Speak to the Cowherd Bump. The shows that lead in the Cowherd are going in the other direction, ESPN is widening its gap over FS1 in the ours prior to Cowherd vs. McAfee.

Get Up and First Take each recorded their most watched years on record in 2023, while their respected FS1 counterparts, the Carton Show and Undisputed, were non-competitive.

Picking a random day, McAfee led The Herd 293,000 to 208,000 last Thursday. Now, let's compare their lead-ins: First Take topped Undisputed to 494,000 to 116,000.

That's a 79 percent increase from Undisputed to Cowherd and a 41 percent decrease from First Take to McAfee, percentages consistent with the trends of the past four months.

And that ought to have executives concerned. An FS1 program has never wrested away a lead from ESPN, head to head.

The Herd dares to be the first this winter.

Football season is about to end. McAfee hosts a football-heavy broadcast even during the offseason. Cowherd doesn't. He transitions to more of an NBA-focused program between the Super Bowl and the NFL Draft, and then again between the Draft and the football season.

McAfee's main attraction, Aaron Rodgers, is also not scheduled to appear again on the show until the next football season.

Thus, the odds are that the gap between Cowherd and McAfee will continue to shrink in the months ahead.

Now, does that mean McAfee was a poor investment for ESPN? No. Not necessarily. Though his addition is certainly a win for Cowherd and FS1.

By television metrics, McAfee is underperforming and failing to justify his $17 million-a-year salary. That's obvious.

However, liner television is not the only metric by which ESPN judges him. McAfee's show also simulcasts live on YouTube, with a daily view count of over 400,000.

That does not mean McAfee averages 700,000 viewers across both platforms, as ESPN tried to say in a press release. Television and YouTube viewers are measured differently. We explained that here.

Nonetheless, McAfee does reach a lot of different people per day.

Does that justify the declines he's responsible for on television, the elevation of FS1, and the perpetual headaches he causes management?

Answers to that question vary, particularly inside ESPN.

Executive Norby Williamson, the "rat" of whom McAfee speaks, would say no. The social media team at ESPN would say yes, unequivocally.

In the end, only the opinions of ESPN CEO Jimmy Pitao and Disney CEO Bob Iger matter. They will decide how long McAfee remains at ESPN.

Colin Cowherd and FS1 hope the answer is long-term.