Clay Travis' Starting 11: Upsets Take Over The College Football Weekend
We're in a new era of college football, one that, frankly, we're still learning about.
Just a few years ago, players were being suspended for selling their autographs and you had to sit out a full year if you transferred. Now many players are making seven figures to play the game and a player can go from suiting up for your favorite team to your most hated rival in the space of one offseason.
Gone are the days of recruiting classes being slowly integrated into bigger rosters and those recruiting class rankings being fairly reliable predictors of the best teams -- now entire rosters are remade on the fly every year.
For a few years now we've been debating what the impact of all these changes would be, but on Saturday I think we all saw it come into stark relief as upsets rained down across the country. Leading to this thesis: There are no great teams in college football any longer and the distance between the top of the college football mountain and the bottom of the college football mountain has never been less significant.
NIL and unlimited transfers with no sit-outs has turned college football much more NFL-like.
How else to explain one of the biggest shocks we've seen in college football in a very long time: Vanderbilt! tearing down the goalposts after beating Alabama and parading those goalposts three miles through the heart of Nashville to deposit them in the Cumberland River.
Oct 5, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores fans take down the goal post after an upset victory over the Alabama Crimson Tide at FirstBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Butch Dill-Imagn Images
Yet, crazily, from an oddsmaker perspective, Vanderbilt beating Alabama wasn't even the biggest upset of the season so far: Northern Illinois beating Notre Dame as a 28.5 point underdog was.
It's long been a cliche that on any given Sunday anything can happen in the NFL, I think we're going to have to add any given Saturday to the cliche as well, college football chaos is going to become much more ordinary than it has in years past.
Because we're barely into October and there is only one undefeated SEC team left, Texas, and the Longhorns have Oklahoma and Georgia in the next two weeks. Would it shock anyone if Texas loses one, or both, of these games?
Let's dive into the Starting 11.
1. Nick Saban wouldn't have lost this game to Vanderbilt
What evidence do we have of that?
Basically, his entire coaching career at Alabama.
I know that some out there will try and compare this Kalen DeBoer loss to Saban's 2007 loss to Louisiana-Monroe, but that Alabama team was nowhere near as talented as the one DeBoer inherited from Saban. Losses like Vanderbilt just didn't happen in the Saban dynasty.
Alabama is still be a good football team, but the dynasty days are over.
Former Alabama head coach Nick Saban. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Heck, you can argue Saban saw all of this coming and that's why he stepped away from college football. That is, you can argue that even if Saban were still coaching the Tide, his dynasty had diminished substantially, and he may have started to have losses like this one, but he left before it happened.
I do think Saban was aware the paradigm had changed and what had worked for him for so long -- recruiting the best players by far and developing them into elite NFL talent -- was going to be way harder in an NIL era when everyone is spending money on top talent.
But back to the game.
This wasn't some crazy, flukish outcome. Vanderbilt had 26 first downs to Alabama's 17, outgained the Tide 418 to 394 and this is shocking, at least to me, rushed for 166 yards to Alabama's 84. Sometimes you go into box scores and wild results happen that aren't reflected in yardage totals. This wasn't that. Vanderbilt deserved to win this game based on the box score. Vanderbilt was the better team on Saturday.
But back to my opening sentence: Every Alabama fan reading this right now, including my 14-year-old son, knows that Nick Saban wouldn't have lost this game.
So what's changed so far in the DeBoer era?
The Tide defense has some big holes. Lost amid the excitement of the huge win over Georgia was the fact that Alabama gave up 27 points in the second half to the Bulldogs. Combine that with this game and in the past six quarters of SEC play Alabama has given up 67 points.
Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer. CREDIT: Erick W. Rasco (Photo by Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated via Getty Images) (Set Number: X164619)
That's damning.
So too is the 12 of 18 on third down that Vandy tallied yesterday.
That's especially the case since Alabama has three pretty tough road games still ahead: at Tennessee, at LSU and at Oklahoma.
This performance against Vandy would (probably) lose in all three away venues, especially since the Tide wasn't really playing in an away venue at Vanderbilt, there were more Alabama fans at the game than Vandy fans.
For Kalen DeBoer, in particular, he's about to learn the scrutiny that comes with big time SEC football, you can't hide from this performance and it now feels like instead of an epic 6-0 vs. 6-0 game in Neyland Stadium in two weeks against Tennessee that would have been seen as a playoff preview, that's now an elimination game in the SEC title race.
2. This is the biggest win in the history of Vanderbilt athletics
I know the Commodores have won two college world series titles under Tim Corbin -- and that's an incredible accomplishment -- but big time college football is just orders of magnitude greater than anything accomplished in college baseball.
Vanderbilt was 0-60 all time against AP top five teams coming into yesterday's game. They hadn't beaten Alabama in forty years, losing 23 straight in the process. As someone who is a double graduate degree alum of Vanderbilt and has followed Commodore athletics for his entire life, I can tell you that no team has regularly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory more than Vanderbilt. So for the Commodores to pull this win off is downright legendary.
Vanderbilt Commodores running back Sedrick Alexander (28) and quarterback Diego Pavia (2)celebrate a touchdown in the end zone against the Alabama Crimson Tide during their game at Vanderbilt Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024.
It's staggering in its impact, not just in the present day, but for the years to come.
Clark Lea's entire coaching career is made at this point, he's gone from the hot seat to lifetime tenure status in one game.
As I watched this game end, I was happy for the long-suffering Vandy fans I've known my entire life. It's hard to be a fan of a team that almost never wins. Most can't do it. For decades -- with the brief interlude of the James Franklin era -- Vandy has been the proverbial Charlie Brown getting the ball snatched away by Lucy at the last possible moment every week.
Heck, it just happened two weeks ago at Missouri when Vandy lost in double overtime.
So this win is a Vandy fan redemption, a deep dip in a reservoir of football salvation, a cathartic toss of goal posts into the Cumberland River after a long march down Broadway, it felt like much more than one win for Vandy fans, it felt like just rewards for a life of football masochism.
And I know we talk about athletics as the front porch of university life, but can you imagine a better advertisement for Vanderbilt University than everything that ensued yesterday?
If you're a super smart kid anywhere in America and you're interested in going to a super elite university, living in one of the most fun cities in the country, and getting major college athletics through the SEC, how can you do better than Vanderbilt?
The most fun three years of my life were spent at Vanderbilt Law School -- this fall is my twentieth! law school reunion -- and I still think going to Vandy for law school was the best decision I've ever made. I met my wife there, now have three boys because of it, and I really do love this university.
Yes, I'm a Tennessee fan because my grandfather played for General Neyland and I started going to Tennessee games at five years old -- I picked my favorite football team long before I even knew what a lawyer was -- go read "Dixieland Delight" and "On Rocky Top," if you are interested in SEC fandom -- but I really do love Vanderbilt University.
And I loved what happened yesterday for the school and its long-suffering fans.
3. Tennessee looked awful at Arkansas
First, credit to the Razorbacks for the win, particularly for coming back from a 14-3 second half deficit. Arkansas was the better team on Saturday night.
But I don't think Arkansas fans had much in the way of expectations this year so this win is probably the difference between 7-5 and 8-4 for them. It's lots of fun, but it doesn't change their season expectations much. If anything, it just means Sam Pittman isn't going anywhere at the end of the year.
But for Tennessee, which had playoff dreams entering this season and this game, this was a really bad, awful loss.
There's no sugarcoating it, Tennessee had no business losing this game off a bye week against this Arkansas team. Even after the disaster of a first half, the Vols had a 14-3 lead with about twenty minutes to play. You can't lose this game.
FAYETTEVILLE, AR - OCTOBER 05: Tennessee Volunteers defensive lineman James Pearce Jr. (27) attempts to rush past Arkansas Razorbacks offensive lineman Keyshawn Blackstock (54) during the college football game between the Tennessee Volunteers and Arkansas Razorbacks on October 5, 2024, at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Arkansas. (Photo by Andy Altenburger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
But Tennessee did.
And in so doing it raised the biggest issue of the Josh Heupel era, his teams no show on the road every year against sub-par opponents.
It happened in 2022 at South Carolina, in 2023 at Florida, and now against Arkansas too in 2024.
That's three straight years of losing to touchdown+ underdogs on the road.
Look, winning on the road is hard, you're probably not going to beat top teams on the road consistently, but you have to beat mediocre teams on the road, especially teams you are favored to beat by double digits. It's the difference between being a playoff team and playing in the Music City Bowl.
After the N.C. State and Oklahoma wins, I expected Tennessee to be 6-0 with Alabama coming to town.
But after this loss, the entire season is filled with landmines. Who knows what will happen? Would it shock me if Florida came into Neyland and won? Of course not. Tennessee manages to lose to Florida almost all the time.
But I will say this, Nico has to use his legs more. (And not by running out of bounds on the final play of the game. The fact that both Joe Milton and Nico have ended games doing this is alarming because I can't remember seeing any other quarterback ever do it. You have to throw the ball! That's middle school level football 101. That's super alarming when it comes to processing ability. You can have a rocket for an arm, but if you don't know where to throw the football, it doesn't matter.)
FAYETTEVILLE, AR - OCTOBER 05: Tennessee Volunteers linebacker Keenan Pili (11) attempts to tackle Arkansas Razorbacks running back Ja'Quinden Jackson (22) during the college football game between the Tennessee Volunteers and Arkansas Razorbacks on October 5, 2024, at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Arkansas. (Photo by Andy Altenburger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
But back to running.
It feels like Tennessee has been trying to protect Nico from taking too many hits and has limited the running plays called for him as a result.
The running game hasn't been great at Oklahoma and at Arkansas the past two games. We need more read option with Nico and he has be more decisive in the run game too. If the play isn't there, take off.
Teams aren't going to let Tennessee beat them deep as often -- but Nico missed a game clincher wide open touchdown late in the fourth quarter -- so you have to be able to run at the quarterback position.
Does that put risk on the quarterback?
Sure.
But so does standing in the pocket and holding the ball too long.
After the win over Oklahoma, Tennessee just had to beat the teams it should beat and even if the Vols lost to Alabama and Georgia, a 10-2 season would probably have been good enough for the playoff. After this Arkansas loss, there is no more margin for error -- and you have to beat one of Alabama or Georgia to post that 10-2 record. All without losing to anyone else.
After this performance last night, it's hard to believe that's likely.
Also, many of you believe this loss is karma because I posted this with my son right after Alabama lost to Vanderbilt.
Also, sometimes people think I'm not as relatable as I was twenty years ago when I started writing about sports online, but I want you to know I still have life challenges too.
For instance, I wasn't able to watch the end of the Tennessee-Arkansas game because the wifi on the private jet wasn't working well enough to stream video.
We took off right as Tennessee took possession on the final drive.
So I didn't get to see the ending live.
Which probably kept me from having a heart attack when Nico ran out of bounds on the final play of the game.
4. Texas A&M smoked Missouri
I think it's fair to say Missouri isn't a legit playoff contender after this performance combined with the double overtime win over Vanderbilt.
But, and this may come as a bit of a surprise, the Aggies might be.
Really.
Texas A&M is now 5-1 at the halfway point of the season.
The Aggies get a week off and then go to Mississippi State, where they figure to be a decent favorite. Then comes LSU in College Station, at South Carolina, New Mexico State, at Auburn, and Texas to finish the season.
Other than Texas, A&M figures to be a favorite in the rest of the schedule.
COLLEGE STATION, TX - OCTOBER 05: Texas A&M Aggies quarterback Conner Weigman (15) looks to pass as he rolls to his left during first half action during the football game between the Missouri Tigers and Texas A&M Aggies on October 5, 2024, at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas. (Photo by Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Now I think the Aggies probably drop at least one of these games, but a 9-2 or 10-1 A&M hosting Texas on the final weekend of the season doesn't feel crazy at all.
As for Missouri, the schedule is easy by SEC standards, but this team feels like a paper Tiger.
Having said that, other than at Alabama, a game scheduled the week after the Tide play the Vols in Neyland, what road game scares you? At South Carolina, at Mississippi State?
Mizzou may still be able to get to 10-2.
But would a 10-2 Mizzou with losses to the only top 25 teams on its schedule be a playoff team?
Who knows? Especially since it's already hard to come up with 12 teams that deserve to be in the playoff.
5. Minnesota (probably) ended USC's playoff hopes and Washington (probably) ended Michigan's playoff hopes too
And something still feels off about the Lincoln Riley era at USC.
Doesn't it?
It just doesn't feel like a program that's on the right track.
USC is probably headed for an 8-4 style season, a second straight mediocre result and here's a crazy stat for you, Lincoln Riley has already lost more conference games at USC than he did in five years at Oklahoma. Crazier stat? Lincoln Riley and Billy Napier have the same record over their past 12 games -- both teams are 5-7.
Penn State is traveling to USC this coming weekend, it's a huge game for both programs. If Penn State can win this game, given the rest of the schedule isn't brutal, the Nittany Lions will end USC's dwindling playoff hopes and come close to punching a ticket to the playoff themselves.
As for the Wolverines, it's been clear since the Texas game that Michigan didn't have the quarterback play to contend for a Big Ten title.
Yes, they got the win over USC, but both Michigan and USC look like 8-4 teams.
And that USC win over LSU to start the season feels like a very long, long time ago.
6. Miami came storming back to beat California after most of us were in bed asleep
This makes two straight weeks Miami has survived against inferior opponents.
But this win was even more impressive because it required a 35-10 second half comeback which broke the hearts of Cal Bear fans.
BERKELEY, CA - OCTOBER 05: Miami Hurricanes running back Mark Fletcher Jr. (4) celebrates after a touchdown during the college football game between the California Golden Bears and the Miami Hurricanes on October 5, 2024, at California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, CA. (Photo by Samuel Stringer/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Miami is 6-0 and if the Canes can go 5-1 to close they likely will be in the playoff no matter what happens in the ACC title game. But can they pull this off? I have my doubts. Which is why I've moved Clemson to my projected ACC champion.
I just think Clemson, even with a loss, is playing better than Miami right now.
Which brings us to...
7. Clemson, quietly, is right back in the mix for the college football playoff and so is Notre Dame
Let's start with Notre Dame, which has the worst loss of the season in college football based on the oddsmakers -- Northern Illinois beat them as a 28.5 point road underdog -- but there's so much chaos around them that the Fighting Irish are very much alive for the playoff.
How so?
That Texas A&M road win now looks better than it even did back in the first week of the season and the rest of the Irish schedule keeps getting less daunting. The Irish have Stanford, at Georgia Tech, at Navy, Florida State, Virginia, Army, and at USC.
Now Army and Navy are a combined 10-0, which is badass, so maybe one of those teams upsets the Irish or maybe USC or Georgia Tech pull off road upsets, but Notre Dame getting to 10-2 feels doable.
Given all the chaos around them is a 10-2 Notre Dame getting left out of the playoff even with an awful home loss to Northern Illinois?
I'm not so sure given how much TV executives salivate over Notre Dame ratings.
Meanwhile, don't overlook Clemson.
Left for dead after Georgia smoked them in week one, Clemson doesn't have a ton left on its schedule.
Road games at Pitt and at Virginia Tech may be challenges, but I think you have to put Clemson as a favorite to be in the ACC title game.
And to win it if they get there.
Speaking of teams in the mix, this is why a 12 team playoff is great for college football, there are going to be at least 30 teams this year that believe they have a playoff chance entering November.
For decades we've viewed losses as death knells in college football, now it's much more like the NFL, anything can happen in the playoff race and perfect records are becoming a thing of the past.
8. Penn State keeps stacking wins in Happy Valley
I feel like the Nittany Lions are completely under the radar so far.
Now that will change this weekend with a game in LA against USC, but it's possible Penn State will only play one ranked team for the rest of the season -- Ohio State on November 2nd.
Win at USC and Penn State would have to become a prohibitive favorite to make the playoff.
In fact, there's a scenario where Oregon beats Ohio State and then Ohio State beats Penn State and we end up with a three way tie for first place in the Big Ten.
9. 6-0 Indiana has a shot to be 9-0 when Michigan comes to town in mid-November and 5-0 Iowa State is quietly setting up a Big 12 title run
While we often focus on the big name schools, there are several teams outside the national purview notching impressive resumes.
The playoff mix may be more challenging than we realize because some teams play far more daunting schedules than others in power conferences.
I mentioned Mizzou's path above, but what about Indiana?
The Hoosiers may only play one top 25 opponent all year -- Ohio State.
What happens if they finish 11-1 without a single top 25 win with their sole loss to Ohio State?
How do they stack up in the playoff mix?
And how about Iowa State, the schedule is backloaded but if the Cyclones can win at West Virginia in their next game, they are set up to make a run to the Big 12 title game too.
How do you rank and assess these teams? Especially since, again, the schedules are way different in difficulty than the top teams play? That's going to be a potentially pretty substantial challenge going forward.
10. My Outkick Top Ten and my playoff 12
Confession: it's hard to come up with ten teams that deserve to be in the top ten and even harder to come up with 12 teams that deserve to be in the playoff.
- Texas
- Ohio State
- Penn State
- Oregon
- Miami
- Georgia
- Alabama
- Clemson
- Iowa State
- Indiana
My playoff 12
I'm going to be honest, guys, there aren't 12 teams right now that deserve to be in a playoff.
Reminder, the top four seeds all have to be conference champions so these four teams are my projections of who will win the conferences based on what we've seen so far this season.
- Texas (SEC Champion)
- Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
- Clemson (ACC champion)
- BYU (Big 12 champion)
- Penn State
- Miami
- Oregon
- Georgia
- Alabama
- Notre Dame
- Texas A&M
- Boise State
11. SEC power rankings 1-16
This may be the most difficult SEC power rankings I've ever done.
Let me attempt to explain my rationale here and then all of you can scream at me, and each other, on social media about why my rankings are wrong.
Texas is the only undefeated team in the SEC so they are a clear number one. Then we have a bevy of one loss teams, a bunch of two loss teams and basically Mississippi State and Auburn at the bottom of this list.
So I think most of you will agree with my number one team and my bottom two.
Otherwise, it's all a jumble.
What I tried to do is rank the quality of the loss here. So, for instance, Georgia, even though they lost to Alabama, is a fairly high quality loss, right? It's hard to win at Alabama. Then I tried to balance that out with the quality of the best win, that is, Georgia whipped Clemson, who looks fairly solid, so I have Georgia ranked above Alabama even though Alabama beat Georgia. My logic? The quality of Georgia's resume is better than the quality of Alabama's resume.
It's only the first week of October, but just ranking teams based on head-to-head outcomes is impossible. For instance, how do you rank Alabama which beat Georgia, but lost to Vanderbilt? It's impossible.
So this is my best guess at the SEC power rankings right now:
- Texas
- Georgia
- Alabama
- Texas A&M
- Tennessee
- Ole Miss
- Oklahoma
- LSU
- Missouri
- Arkansas
- Vanderbilt
- Kentucky
- South Carolina
- Florida
- Auburn
- Mississippi State