Clay Travis' Starting 11: Upsets Rain Down Edition

I told you last week that we should all expect some upsets down the stretch run of the college football season.

Well, they came fast and furious on Saturday, jumbling the playoff picture immensely, from the moment Ole Miss lost in the early kickoff game to Florida until Alabama and Texas A&M both went down in the night kickoffs to Oklahoma and Auburn, respectively.

But the SEC playoff contenders going up in flames wasn't all we saw either. BYU, which was undefeated until last week, sustained their second loss and are teetering on the fringes of the playoff race. Colorado, who was the toast of college football after a series of big wins, got whipped solidly by Kansas, Penn State survived late with gutsy play calling at Minnesota, and Boise State found a way to win at Wyoming.

The end result?

Those of us who are diehard college football fans had one of the most fun days of college football watching ever.

Personally, I barely left my couch for 12 straight hours.

AUBURN, ALABAMA - NOVEMBER 23: Running back Jarquez Hunter #27 of the Auburn Tigers looks to run the ball by linebacker Scooby Williams #0 of the Texas A&M Aggies during overtime at Jordan-Hare Stadium on November 23, 2024 in Auburn, Alabama. (Photo by Michael Chang/Getty Images)

Even now my heart is still beating a million miles a minute after the four overtime thriller Auburn just won over Texas A&M. That Aggie drop?! Man, it was brutal, but it will be completely forgotten if A&M comes back and beats Texas next weekend in Aggieland because A&M would advance to Atlanta to play Georgia in the SEC title game.

Meaning an 8-3 regular season Texas A&M team is still alive for not only the SEC title, but also a bye into the second round of the playoff!

So A&M will either be 9-3 and in Atlanta or 8-4 and preparing for the Music City Bowl.

Talk about rivalry stakes!

We will discuss that scenario below in a bit, but let's just put this out there: Far from making the regular season matter less, an expanded playoff made all of us pay much more attention to many more games than we ordinarily would have.

And as we enter the final week of the regular season, there are at least twenty teams that still believe they have a shot at making the playoff and winning a title.

As I've been arguing for my entire career, a big, expanded playoff is GREAT for college football.

With that in mind, let's dive into the Starting 11 and see where we are in every conference as the final week of the regular season arrives, and the playoff chaos hits a crescendo.

1. Credit to Oklahoma for the dominating win, but this was Alabama's worst performance since Louisiana-Monroe in 2007

The reason I picked Oklahoma to keep it close was I figured with two weeks to prepare and Brent Venables as their coach, Oklahoma would make Jalen Milroe beat them with his arm, not his legs.

But they did much more than that. The Sooners absolutely destroyed Alabama in the run game – putting up over 250 yards on the ground while holding Alabama to an average of around two yards per rush.

Yes, Milroe threw two bad interceptions, the second for a pick six, and Oklahoma opened up a 24-3 lead they would never relinquish on that pick six, but the Alabama rush defense was the bigger story to me. The Tide got mauled in the trenches.

NORMAN, OKLAHOMA - NOVEMBER 23:  Running back Xavier Robinson #21 of the Oklahoma Sooners dives for the end zone to score an 18-yard touchdown against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the second quarter at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on November 23, 2024 in Norman, Oklahoma.  (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)

And if I'm an LSU fan watching this dominant Oklahoma defensive performance, I'm even angrier than I was a few weeks ago about how my Tigers matched up with the Tide.

LSU let Alabama beat them at home, with two weeks to prepare, almost exclusively using Milroe's legs.

See if you can spot the outlier in SEC competition since Milroe dominated the first half with his legs against Georgia.

Here are the defensive performances from SEC teams against Jalen Milroe this year.  

• Vanderbilt 7 carries for 10 yards
• South Carolina 18 carries for 36 yards
• Tennessee 14 carries for 11 yards
• Missouri 11 carries for 50 yards
• LSU 12 carries for 185 yards
• Oklahoma 15 carries for 7 yards

Everyone but LSU made Milroe beat them with his arm and the Tide went 2-3 in the five games where Milroe didn't win the game with his legs.

How in the world did LSU let Milroe beat them with his legs? Are you telling me they don't have the same caliber of defensive talent of all the teams that shut him down? Please.

I'm not sure how much of this is Kalen DeBoer, and how much is just Bama not being that elite, at least compared to the Saban era, at wide receiver or running back, but losing to a 5-5 SEC team like this never happened to Nick Saban in his entire coaching career.

Losing to two mediocre SEC teams – Vanderbilt and Oklahoma – never happened either.

Maybe Kalen DeBoer can turn this around in year two, but I think there is reason for lots of nervousness in T-Town.

The Tide are 4-3 in the SEC with an Auburn team with nothing to lose rolling into town.

Look out.    

2. Ole Miss's loss to Florida probably ended the Rebels playoff chances too

It was a brutal, debilitating loss for Lane Kiffin's Ole Miss Rebels, who had fought their way back in the playoffs with a dominant win two weeks ago against Georgia.

But while Ole Miss's high could be quite high – dominating Georgia two weeks ago – the Rebel low – losing at home to Kentucky, who would otherwise go winless in the SEC – could be every bit as low.

GAINESVILLE, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 23: DJ Lagway #2 of the Florida Gators hands the ball off during the first half of a game against the Mississippi Rebels at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on November 23, 2024 in Gainesville, Florida. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)

Assuming Ole Miss is truly done – given that it's college football, anything can happen so maybe a 9-3 team ends back up in the playoff mix – then the Rebels will look back at the final two interceptions with great despair. But they'll also look at the entire game: Stopped twice deep in Florida territory on fourth down, three turnovers, including an awful fumbled punt. To outgain your opponent by 120 yards and lose is tough to see happen any year.

But to do it in the year when you put everything you could into this team to make the playoff, is even more brutal.  

As for Florida, Billy Napier's Gators team deserves tremendous credit for sticking together despite a crushing early schedule and rumors that Napier was finished as coach.

A few weeks ago, some of you thought I was crazy when I predicted Florida would win at least one of its insane closing SEC stretch – Georgia, at Texas, LSU and Ole Miss – well, the Gators ended up winning two of those games.

And now with Florida State left on the schedule, Florida has a great shot to get to 7-5 and win their final four games to close out the season.

Plus, now they have DJ Lagway, who can make every throw, returning as their starter next season. There's reason for a great deal of optimism in 2025.

While Ole Miss pushed all their chips into the center of the table betting everything on this playoff run and likely came up broke, the Gators are young and built for the future.

It's amazing how one team that's probably going to finish 9-3 can feel so awful and another team that's going to finish 7-5 can feel so great, but that's where we are in college football right now.

And no matter who you root for – yes, even Mississippi State fans – wasn't it hard not to feel awful for Jaxson Dart?

He threw two awful interceptions – and a third that was overturned – on the final two Ole Miss possessions.

The wheels just completely came off for him.

He'll be thinking about that last five minutes in Gainesville for the rest of his life.

As will long-suffering Rebel fans.

3. Ohio State smoked Indiana

Was it just me or did it feel like genuine bad blood between these two teams?

Here's Ohio State quarterback Will Howard pretending to extinguish a cigarette on the sideline to mock Indiana's coach Cignetti.

Also, the scoreboard put up a Google taunt as well.

Maybe it's just me, but this felt kind of personal.

Ohio State should roll Michigan next week, and if that happens the Buckeyes will either be hosting a home playoff game after losing the Big Ten title game to Oregon or getting a bye after winning it, but what about Indiana going forward?

When the loss happened early in the day, I thought Indiana would present a huge test for the playoff committee – does strength of schedule and quality of wins matter or not?

But then the SEC blew itself up, and now the Hoosiers seem pretty easily in the playoff so long as they beat Purdue next weekend.

So the beat down Ohio State delivered may not dent their chances much at all.

4. Auburn won in four overtimes and now Texas A&M is 8-3 – but still alive for the SEC title

So here is the updated SEC playoff picture as it stands right now.

Ole Miss, with its loss to Florida, is (almost certainly) out of the playoff mix.

Alabama, with its loss to Oklahoma, is (almost certainly) out of the playoff mix.

I say almost certainly because it's college football and anything can happen, as we just saw today.

That leaves Georgia, Tennessee, and Texas presently in the playoff. And Georgia has punched its ticket to Atlanta for the SEC title game.

Before the season, I said 10-2 in the SEC would get you in the playoff.

And I feel good about that prediction with one week to go and only three teams able to get to ten regular season wins.

AUBURN, ALABAMA - NOVEMBER 23: Wide receiver Jabre Barber #1 of the Texas A&M Aggies misses a pass during the first half of their game against the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium on November 23, 2024 in Auburn, Alabama. (Photo by Michael Chang/Getty Images)

But there are still major rivalry week landmines here, first Tennessee has to beat Vanderbilt, Georgia has to beat Georgia Tech, and Texas may have to win a game in Aggieland to keep its playoff spot. One of these teams losing one of these games wouldn't be a surprise at all.

The toughest scenario left? What if Texas A&M beats Texas and advances to play Georgia in the SEC title game? Then Texas A&M beats Georgia to finish 10-3 and get a bye. Georgia would still be in the playoff at 10-3, but what about 10-2 Tennessee and 10-2 Texas?

I think both would still be in the playoff, but it would get messy.

And I think 10-2 Tennessee would have to be above 10-2 Texas because the Longhorns wouldn't have a single top 25 win on the year.

The cleanest result would be Texas beats Texas A&M and advances to play Georgia and Tennessee beats Vanderbilt to get to 10-2.

Then the SEC would definitely get three teams.

But if Tennessee loses, the 9-3 SEC teams could find themselves back in the mix too.

Included in that 9-3 mix? South Carolina, if the Gamecocks beat Clemson next week.    

5. SMU is in the ACC title game, but Miami still needs to beat Syracuse to clinch its title game spot

If Miami loses to Syracuse then Clemson, which has already completed its ACC season, would play SMU in the ACC title game.

So we still have three ACC teams alive for the ACC title.

Indeed, if 11-1 SMU meets 11-1 Miami in the ACC title game, I think there's a good chance both ACC title game teams would make the playoff.

And, again, Clemson, especially if the Tigers beat South Carolina to finish 10-2, could find itself in the playoff mix too.

6. The Big 12 is a complete and total mess and will get one team in the playoff – the Big 12 title game winner

There is no possibility of an at large playoff bid at this point, it's win the title game or bust.

There are four teams with two conference losses that are alive for the title game: Arizona State, BYU, Colorado and Iowa State.

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - NOVEMBER 23: Head coach Deion Sanders of the Colorado Buffaloes walks the sideline in the second half against the Colorado Buffaloes at Arrowhead Stadium on November 23, 2024 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)

But there are also three-loss teams, potentially, still alive for the playoff too.

The end result?

The Big 12 is only getting one playoff team.

But if all these two loss teams win? It will be Arizona State vs. Iowa State winning the tiebreaks to play for the title.

7. After a win over undefeated Army, 10-1 Notre Dame will be in the playoff with a win over USC

But there's an argument that even with a loss to USC, 10-2 Notre Dame could still be in the mix because teams are dropping like flies right now.

Again, it depends on what the final resumes look like from top to bottom.  

But it's a certainty that with a win over USC, 11-1 Notre Dame would be in the playoff – and probably hosting a home playoff game too.  

8. Okay, simplify it for me, who controls their playoff spot?

That is, who wins this upcoming week and they are in the playoff for sure?

In the Big Ten: Oregon is already in no matter what happens next week, Ohio State is in with a win over Michigan – and probably in even with a loss to Michigan – and Penn State is in with a win over Maryland – and maybe in with a loss anyway.

Indiana's also in with a win over Purdue after all the SEC chaos.

So the Big Ten has four pretty solid playoff teams. Win, and they're all in next week.

BRONX, NY - NOVEMBER 23: Hayden Reed #8 of the Army Black Knights runs after the catch against Xavier Watts #0 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the game on November 23, 2024 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York.   (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

In the SEC: Georgia is in with a win over Georgia Tech, Tennessee is in with a win over Vanderbilt, and Texas is in with a win over Texas A&M – and may be in even with a loss in this game since the Longhorns would still be 10-2 with a loss to the Aggies.

And Texas A&M may be in with a win over Texas, but is definitely in, WITH A BYE, if it beats Texas and Georgia in back-to-back weeks to win the SEC title game.

Let me sum it up this way, A&M either beats its hated rival, Texas, for the first time in 13 years and gets to make its first ever trip to Atlanta to play for the SEC championship, or the Aggies go 8-4 and play in a month in the Music City Bowl.

Rivalry stakes!

So three SEC teams are in for sure with a win and A&M is still alive for the SEC title, a bye, and the national title even though the Aggies are only 8-3.  

Notre Dame is in with a win over USC and would still be in the playoff mix with a loss too, but a win punches their ticket.  

By my count this means eight teams can definitely punch their playoff tickets next week with a single win – and some of these teams, like Oregon, are already in no matter what happens in the final week.

The ACC, as discussed above, gets one spot for its champion, but if you get 11-1 SMU against 11-1 Miami, I think both teams are likely to get in so it's possible SMU and Miami can both punch their tickets next week too with a win.

The Big 12 gets one team and the non-power five conference gets one team. Presently, it would be Boise State.

That would be your 12 right now.

9. My playoff rankings are below at number ten, but here is what I think the playoff committee's Tuesday rankings will look like

Here's my best guess at what they will do on Tuesday.

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Georgia
7. Tennessee
8. Miami
9. Indiana
10. SMU
11. Boise State
12. Clemson

Again, that's my best guess as to what their rankings will look like.

10. My Outkick Top Ten

This is how the playoff committee should have the teams ranked in my always humble opinion.

What I've tried to do with my rankings is reward teams for good wins and punish losses less.

Could you argue with me about how teams three to five in the SEC should be ranked? Sure. But, again, I ranked teams based on what they've achieved at their highest level. So I have Georgia, having played the toughest schedule and posted the best number of top 25 wins, at the top of the SEC and Texas, which still doesn't have a top 25 win, at the bottom of my SEC list, even though their record is better than Georgia, a team they lost to at home, and Tennessee.

My Outkick Top Ten:

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Tennessee
5. Texas
6. Penn State
7. Miami
8. Notre Dame
9. SMU
10. Indiana

My Playoff 12

1. Oregon (Big Ten Champion)
2. Georgia (SEC Champion)
3. Miami (ACC Champion)
4. Arizona State (Big 12 Champion)
5. Ohio State
6. Tennessee
7. Texas
8. Penn State
9. Notre Dame
10. SMU
11. Indiana
12. Boise State

This means my first round on campus games would be Boise State at Ohio State, SMU at Georgia, Notre Dame at Tennessee, and Penn State at Texas.

If you're curious, by the way, on the national title odds, here they are as I write late on Saturday night:

• Ohio State +260
• Georgia +350
• Oregon +390
• Texas +440
• Notre Dame +1400
• Penn State +1600
• Tennessee +2100
• Miami +2600
• SMU +3500
• Alabama +4000
• Clemson +5000
• Indiana +5000
• Arizona State +8000
• Ole Miss 100 to 1
• Boise State 120 to 1
• South Carolina 150 to 1
• Texas A&M 170 to 1
• Colorado 200 to 1
• Tulane 200 to 1
• BYU 250 to 1
• Iowa State 250-1

11. SEC power rankings 1-16

1. Georgia
2. Tennessee
3. Texas
4. Alabama
5. Ole Miss
6. South Carolina
7. Texas A&M
8. Missouri
9. Florida
10. LSU
11. Vanderbilt
12. Oklahoma
13. Arkansas
14. Auburn
15. Kentucky
16. Mississippi State