Clay Travis' Starting 11: SEC Chaos Is Here Edition
Buckle up, chaos is here.
We now have four SEC teams tied with two conference losses each: Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama and Ole Miss, and with BYU's loss at home to Kansas, the Big 12 has joined the ACC in likely being a one-bid league.
I'm going to dive into the college football playoff scenarios below, but I'd just like to go on the record saying that much of this will clear itself up over the next two weeks.
That is, the chaos, I think, is likely to get less intense, and we're going to get some upsets that make the playoff picture less complicated.
I'll explain below.
But for now, the ACC and the Big 12 look like very likely one-bid leagues and that means there are seven playoff spots available for the Big Ten, the SEC, and Notre Dame.
ATHENS, GEORGIA - NOVEMBER 16: Carson Beck #15 and Dylan Fairchild #53 of the Georgia Bulldogs celebrate after a touchdown during the second quarter against the Tennessee Volunteers at Sanford Stadium on November 16, 2024 in Athens, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
I'm going to do my best to logically break down everything in the SEC below. This means my mentions are going to be a war zone.
So get ready, here we go.
1. Georgia beats Tennessee as Carson Beck looked like a first-round talent
Yes, the officiating was abysmal, and Tennessee fans have many calls to be upset about, but that didn't change the outcome of this game, Tennessee's unforced errors did. No official made Tennessee jump offsides many times, false start on the biggest offensive play of the game, or drop multiple easy catches that would have been big plays. Put simply, the Vols weren't disciplined enough to win on the road in a stadium where the Bulldogs haven't lost in multiple years.
In particular, Tennessee's vaunted defensive line was whipped by the much maligned Georgia offensive line, leaving Carson Beck untouched for much of the night in the pocket. Tennessee had zero sacks, meanwhile Nico was sacked five times by Georgia. That was the ball game.
But there was one play in particular that I thought swung the game's momentum in a massive way that almost no one is talking about.
With the clock set to run out and the first quarter poised to end, Tennessee, up 10-0 and dominating Georgia, had the Bulldogs facing a 3rd and 8 from the Georgia 27. Carson Beck hustled his Bulldog team to the line, intent, it seemed quite evidently to me, to try and draw Tennessee offsides. If the Vols had merely stayed disciplined and watched the football, the quarter would have ended, both sides would have caught their breath and Tennessee would have had a chance to get Georgia off the field on third and eight.
Beck had been bad to that point, the Georgia offense had been woeful, and all the momentum was on Tennessee's side.
ATHENS, GEORGIA - NOVEMBER 16: Carson Beck #15 of the Georgia Bulldogs celebrates after running the ball for a touchdown during the third quarter against the Tennessee Volunteers at Sanford Stadium on November 16, 2024 in Athens, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
The Vols just had to stay disciplined and wait out the half's end.
But Tennessee's best defensive player, James Pearce, leapt offsides and Beck, knowing he had a free play, slung the ball downfield into tight coverage, his receiver made a play, gaining 38 yards on the pass, and boom, Georgia had a first down at the Tennessee 35.
Four plays later Georgia hit a touchdown pass to Oscar Delp and the game was truly on.
Georgia's at that point quiet crowd was loud the rest of the evening.
Again, most aren't going to remember that play, but Beck got his team to the line and took advantage of a big mental error from Tennessee's best defensive player to change the entire trajectory of the game.
It was a life lesson on the field: I tell my kids to control what they can control in life.
Because ultimately, the only thing in life you can actually control, is your own effort and performance. Most people spend their life focused on what others do. The most successful people, I think, focus on what they do.
In that moment, Beck exploited Tennessee's lack of discipline, created an unforced Vol error, and from there got his own mind right, his confidence rolling, and Georgia came back from a double-digit deficit to notch a massive win that puts Georgia squarely back in the national title picture.
In fact, the win put Georgia back at number one in conference for me.
Really.
I'll explain below.
2. Texas beat Arkansas to lock down sole possession of first place in the SEC standings at 5-1 overall
Now I'm going to get everyone riled up below, but have any of you looked at Texas's schedule so far this year and compared it, let's say, with Georgia's schedule?
First, as we all know, Georgia whipped Texas badly at Texas.
This is the only loss Texas has so far this season, true, but have you looked at the nine victories?
Texas's best win, guys, is Vanderbilt.
Otherwise, the Longhorns haven't beaten an SEC team with a winning record this season.
In fact, Texas is only set to play two top 25 teams all year -- Georgia and Texas A&M.
FAYETTEVILLE, ARKANSAS - NOVEMBER 16: Jahdae Barron #7 of the Texas Longhorns celebrates after making a tackle in the first half during a game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium on November 16, 2024 in Fayetteville, Arkansas. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)
Much of the hype surrounding Texas actually derives from the Longhorn win over Michigan, which came when we thought Michigan was something more than a 6-6 team.
Which is why I think an honest accounting of best wins and best losses in the SEC this season would actually have Texas as the fifth-best team in the conference at this point in the year.
I know, all my invites to Longhorn Christmas parties just went up in smoke, but I'm going to break this down now.
In order to have Texas ranked above Georgia, you'd have to see something really impressive in the rest of Texas's resume. But why is no one pointing out that doesn't exist? Why should Georgia be penalized for playing an infinitely tougher schedule than the Longhorns when we saw Texas dominated AT HOME by Georgia just a few weeks ago?
3. Let me break down the SEC race and the SEC resumes in greater detail here
Okay, there are six SEC teams still alive for the playoffs and/or the SEC title game.
So what do their resumes look like at this point?
I'm going to count top 25 wins and then analyze losses for each team. (For purposes of counting top 25 wins, I'm counting top 25 teams RIGHT NOW, not at the time of the game. That means, for instance, Tennessee beating N.C. State doesn't count as a top 25 win. Nor does Texas beating Michigan. For purposes of these projections, I'm taking Missouri and LSU, both of whom lost yesterday, out of the top 25, as I believe is likely to occur in the playoff rankings on Tuesday. If I'm wrong about that -- and I could be wrong about Missouri barely hanging on, they were 23 last week -- I'll adjust next week.)
So here are the resumes.
9-1 Texas
Top 25 wins: None
Loss: Georgia at home by 15
8-2 Georgia
Top 25 wins: Clemson by 31 at neutral site, Texas by 15 on road, Tennessee by 14 at home
Losses: Alabama by 7 on road, Ole Miss by 18 on road
8-2 Tennessee
Top 25 wins: Alabama by 7 at home
Losses: Arkansas by 5 on road, Georgia by 14 on road
8-2 Alabama
Top 25 wins: Georgia by 7 at home, South Carolina by 2 at home
Losses: at Vanderbilt by 5, at Tennessee by 7
8-2 Ole Miss
Top 25 wins: Georgia by 18 at home, South Carolina on road by 24
Losses: Kentucky by 3 at home, LSU by 3 in OT
8-2 Texas A&M
Top 25 wins: None
Losses: Notre Dame by 10 at home, South Carolina on road by 24
Okay, these are the resumes of the six teams.
Go back up and look over them and try to do so rationally, and not as a rabid fan would.
What stands out?
Texas and Texas A&M are the only teams without a current top 25 win among the six teams.
And Georgia has the most top 25 wins and is the only team to only lose to top 25 teams.
That feels very significant to me.
So let me explain how I believe you should rank the teams as a result.
4. I'd have Texas as the fifth best team in the SEC right now
I know, I know.
BUT THEY HAVE THE BEST RECORD, Longhorn fans will wail.
In fact, Longhorn fans are going to be loading up their six shooters and heading to Nashville to tar and feather me.
But right now their schedule is all hat and no cattle.
Let me put it to you this way, where would Texas rank in the SEC, if the Longhorns beat Kentucky and then lose to Texas A&M in two weeks and Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, and Ole Miss all win out to finish 10-2? Texas would have to be sixth, right? The Longhorns would have no top 25 league wins and have lost to both the top 25 teams they played, one at home and one on the road. So are you really telling me Texas would deserve to go from first to sixth based entirely on one loss? That doesn't make sense. Texas is, if we rank them entirely logically, the fifth-best resume in the SEC right now.
Texas QB Quinn Ewers. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
Given that Texas A&M and Texas have played the weakest schedules and that neither team has won a game against a current top 25 opponent, right now I'd have them as the bottom two of the SEC. Since Texas has one fewer loss against a top 25 opponent than A&M, I'd slot them in at fifth and Texas A&M at sixth.
That means my top four are Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama and Ole Miss.
So how do you rank these four?
5. I'd have Georgia as my number one SEC team
Why?
Pretty simple, the Bulldogs have three top 25 wins, more than anyone else in the conference, and they have two road losses against top 25 teams. That is, Georgia has three good wins and two "good" losses. The Bulldogs have played the toughest schedule, and they have the best resume of any SEC team. They should be ranked highest in the conference.
Before we go any further, by the way, I KNOW GEORGIA LOST TO OLE MISS. But all four of these teams have beaten and lost to each other. It's impossible to entirely rank teams based on head to head. Someone has to be ranked below someone they beat.
That's why you have to consider the totality of the schedules.
Okay, what about the next three: Tennessee, Alabama, and Ole Miss.
Well, Alabama has two top 25 wins, over Georgia and South Carolina, Tennessee has one, over Alabama, and Ole Miss has one, over Georgia. So these are roughly a wash with Alabama a bit higher because of the two wins.
ATHENS, GEORGIA - NOVEMBER 16: Dylan Sampson #6 of the Tennessee Volunteers avoids a tackle by Malaki Starks #24 of the Georgia Bulldogs to run for a touchdown during a game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Georgia Bulldogs at Sanford Stadium on November 16, 2024 in Athens, Georgia. (Photo by Steve Limentani/ISI Photos/Getty Images)
But each team's losses aren't the same. Tennessee lost at Georgia and at Arkansas, Alabama lost at Tennessee and at Vanderbilt, and Ole Miss lost at LSU and at home against Kentucky.
Well, Ole Miss's home loss to Kentucky, a Wildcat team that is likely to finish 1-7 in conference, is much worse than any of Tennessee or Alabama's losses and Ole Miss also lost at LSU, which is imploding, meaning Ole Miss has two losses to non top 25 teams, more than anyone else in our top four.
I would, as a result, put Ole Miss at fourth in the SEC.
That leaves us with Tennessee and Alabama for the second and third spots in the SEC.
And the question you are left with is this, do Alabama's top 25 wins over Georgia and South Carolina cancel out the Tide's loss to Tennessee head-to-head?
To me, no.
That is, the resumes are so similar that I do think head-to-head should matter in deciding between these two teams.
So I would have Tennessee, which beat Alabama, above Alabama as my second-best SEC team.
Now you can certainly argue to flip these rankings, but I'd have Tennessee as second in the SEC and Alabama as third in the SEC.
This means my SEC top six is:
1. Georgia
2. Tennessee
3. Alabama
4. Ole Miss
5. Texas
6. Texas A&M
Now this is just based off resume analysis AT THIS PRESENT POINT IN THE SEASON, when each team has played ten full games.
If you asked me which team is playing the best RIGHT NOW, I might well tell you the answer is Ole Miss.
But I'm trying to objectively analyze all these teams based on top wins and losses.
I also readily acknowledge I may be the only person on the planet with my top six SEC teams ranked this way, but I think it's a completely logical ranking when you break it down and just look at resumes.
Which is, you know, what the playoff committee is supposed to actually do.
6. So where do we go from here?
Look, we could end up with six SEC teams all tied at 6-2 in conference.
If that happens, pray for SEC commissioner Greg Sankey because the entire South may fall completely apart in internecine college football argument warfare.
How would that happen?
Auburn would need to beat Texas A&M this weekend and then Texas would need to lose to Texas A&M in two weeks.
Every other team would need to win out.
In that scenario, you'd have six SEC teams all tied at 6-2 in conference.
I have no idea what the tiebreaks would be in this scenario, but I presume Alabama wins the tiebreak because the number one rule in all SEC tiebreak rules is, as we all know, Alabama wins all SEC tiebreaks.
But that's assuming Tennessee, Alabama and Ole Miss win out.
ATHENS, GEORGIA - NOVEMBER 16: Nico Iamaleava #8 of the Tennessee Volunteers looks to throw the ball during the third quarter against the Georgia Bulldogs at Sanford Stadium on November 16, 2024 in Athens, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Yet all three still have dangerous road games: Tennessee plays at Vanderbilt, Alabama plays at Oklahoma and Ole Miss plays at newly revitalized Florida. (Some of you thought I was crazy for predicting Florida would win one of their final four games, well, LSU gave up the ghost and now the Gators feel like they can take down the Rebels too.)
But I would bet on one of these three teams losing one of these three road games and knocking themselves out of the playoff race. (Alabama still has Auburn and Ole Miss still has Mississippi State as well, and we all know crazy things can happen in rivalry games.)
In other words, I'd bet on SEC chaos clearing itself up based on game results.
Remember, it was only three weeks ago that LSU was 6-1 and looked like one of the best teams in the country.
Three losses later and Brian Kelly is on the ropes to even keep his job.
7. Okay, leave the SEC behind, how does the Big Ten look?
There are four playoff contenders in the Big Ten.
The big game coming up this week is 10-0 Ohio State hosting Indiana. (Did anyone think this would be the biggest home game on the Buckeye schedule this year?) The winner is in the playoff, but I'm not convinced that the loser is.
Really.
11-1 Indiana with a loss to Ohio State would not have a single win over a top 25 opponent. Heck, they may not have a single win over a team WITH A WINNING RECORD!
Are you really telling me that 11-1 Indiana has a better resume than these 10-2 potential SEC teams laid out above? I don't think so.
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - NOVEMBER 16: TreVeyon Henderson #32 of the Ohio State Buckeyes runs with the ball against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at Wrigley Field on November 16, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
As for Ohio State, the Buckeyes have one good win all year, Penn State.
But if they lost to Indiana, would 10-2 Ohio State have a better resume than the 10-2 SEC teams laid out above? Not to me. I think that's more of a discussion than most realize.
That is, 10-2 Ohio State and 11-1 Indiana are not guaranteed playoff spots in my mind.
11-0 Oregon's in, we know this.
But Penn State is a bit like Texas to me, a paper resume tiger.
Penn State doesn't have a single top 25 win right now. (Illinois will probably be ranked this week to give them one, but right now they don't.). So, if Penn State lost to Minnesota this weekend, would the 10-2 Nittany Lions be better than the 10-2 SEC teams when it comes to resumes?
I'm not seeing that.
Remember each playoff committee ranking is supposed to be completely independent, that is not impacted by the prior week's rankings.
If they make rational decisions, we could still see a ton of shifting and lots of highly ranked teams could drop a ton.
Heck, Georgia was 12th last week in their insane rankings.
8. BYU lost at home to Kansas, likely meaning the Big 12 will only get one playoff bid.
In fact, I think BYU will lose at Arizona State this coming weekend and go from 9-0 to out of the playoff race in a few days time.
The BIg 12 title game might well end up being Arizona State against Colorado. (The Sun Devils are having a whale of a season and most haven't noticed yet.)
Based on the present rankings, your Big 12 playoff game would be Colorado against BYU, but the entire Big 12 is such a mess that you could even end up with some three loss teams in the Big 12 title game mix.
The biggest takeaway for fans is the Big 12 is almost certainly a one-bid league.
9. What about the ACC and Notre Dame?
It looks like the ACC will also be a one-bid league, the winner of SMU vs. Miami will be in the playoff, the loser will be out.
Yes, fans of the team that loses can jump around and claim that's unfair, but 11-2 SMU or 11-2 Miami isn't going to stack up well against the at large contenders in the SEC and the Big Ten. The losing team is likely to have, at most, one top 25 win.
And may have none.
Okay, what about Notre Dame.
The Notre Dame offense takes the field during a game earlier this season. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Let's do their resume like we did the SEC teams above.
Top 25 wins: Texas A&M by 10 on the road
Losses: Northern Illinois at home by 2
Yes, Army is on the schedule this week and may finish in the top 25, but it's possible Notre Dame is going to finish its season with one top 25 road win and one truly awful loss to Northern Illinois.
The Irish still have to beat Army and USC, but if we look at quality of schedule as opposed to just records, can you honestly tell me 11-1 Notre Dame would have a better resume than, say, 10-2 Alabama or Georgia?
I just don't see it.
But rest assured that everyone in the country who is a fan of a contending playoff team is rooting hard for Army and USC in these next two weeks.
Because I think 10-2 Notre Dame would almost certainly be on the outside of the playoff looking in.
And 11-1 Notre Dame shouldn't be a shoo in either when you look at schedules and resumes.
10. My Outkick Top 10 and Playoff 12
- Oregon
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- Alabama
- Ole Miss
- Texas
- Penn State
- Indiana
- Notre Dame
My Playoff 12
- Oregon (Big Ten Champion)
- Georgia (SEC Champion)
- Miami (ACC Champion)
- Colorado (Big 12 Champion)
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- Alabama
- Ole Miss
- Texas
- Penn State
- Indiana
- Boise State
11. SEC Power Rankings 1-16
I am going to rock everyone's world with this, but now that we have four teams all with two losses and Texas has just one loss, has anyone actually spent time looking at Texas's resume compared to the rest of the two loss teams?
As I said above, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, and Ole Miss all have better wins than Texas does.
By far.
Shouldn't that matter?
In my rankings it does.
- Georgia
- Tennessee
- Alabama
- Ole Miss
- Texas
- Texas A&M
- South Carolina
- Missouri
- Vanderbilt
- LSU
- Arkansas
- Florida
- Oklahoma
- Auburn
- Kentucky
- Mississippi State