Clay Travis' Starting 11: Playoff Scenarios After An Epic Saturday In The Best Sport In America
At long last, it felt like we might have a big college football upset of a team chasing a title.
It was 4th and goal from the 31. Auburn was clinging to a 24-20 lead, having somehow outlasted Alabama in a colossal series of plays that left everyone watching thinking, "I can't believe what just happened!" over and over again.
The Tigers took a timeout to ensure they had the right defense called.
And then elected to drop almost everyone to the end zone and play prevent defense, rushing only three men and allowing Jalen Milroe to stand in the pocket with zero pressure. (To be fair, no matter what happened on this play, everyone would question the defense if Alabama scored. If you brought pressure and Alabama hit a touchdown on a one on one mismatch, everyone would ask why you didn't drop everyone. And if you did what Auburn did and dropped everyone then everyone would scream why didn't you bring pressure?)
And then, as so often seems to happen in this rivalry, lightning struck.
Jalen Milroe lasered a perfect throw to the back left corner of Jordan-Hare Stadium, Isaiah Bond snagged the ball and Auburn's fan base went silent, beginning the largest collection of fans caught on camera actually crying that I can recall seeing.
AUBURN, ALABAMA - NOVEMBER 25: Jalen Milroe #4 of the Alabama Crimson Tide celebrates their 27-24 win over the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium on November 25, 2023 in Auburn, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
For those in the state of Alabama, it was yet another classic game they will never forget.
Still, in drafts, is the Tweet I was poised to hit send on in the event Auburn didn't give up a touchdown. It will never be Tweeted, but here for posterity, and added salt in the wounds for Auburn fans, is that Tweet: "Auburn! Pure insanity. Lose by 21 to New Mexico State and then come back the next week to beat Alabama. What a completely bonkers game. Hugh Freeze with the signature win in year one and his third career victory over Nick Saban."
Again, sorry Auburn fans.
Instead of sending this Tweet, my 13 year old Alabama fan ran around the living room celebrating and taunting his two brothers, who were both rooting for Auburn.
And that game was ending close to the same time that Oklahoma State beat BYU in double overtime and Washington kicked a winning field goal on the final play of the game.
As I've said for years, college football is the best sport in America. Nothing else is as much fun. And I think the 12-team playoff is going to introduce a huge new collection of fans. Put it this way, around ten million people will watch the Iron Bowl and the Ohio State-Michigan games, but forty million watched the Cowboys-Commanders. This means there were thirty million football fans this weekend willing to watch a Cowboys blowout who didn't watch either of these college football games.
ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN - NOVEMBER 25: J.J. McCarthy #9 of the Michigan Wolverines celebrates with fans on the field after defeating the Ohio State Buckeyes in the game at Michigan Stadium on November 25, 2023 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
What are these football fans doing with their lives?
I think the playoff, much like the NCAA tournament, will bring more fans to the game.
But in the meantime, for those of us trying to make sense of a season where none of the top teams will lose, it set up a conference title game weekend with a great deal of uncertainty.
After all of the regular season is complete, we are down to seven teams with a chance to make the final four team playoff: Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Michigan, Florida State, Washington and Oregon.
So how do we break the playoff picture down? Let's dive in to the Starting 11.
1. I'm going to start with the absolute easiest scenario for the playoff committee and then move to more difficult decisions.
The absolute easiest decision for the committee would be if all four undefeated teams win.
If that happens, the playoff final four would be: Georgia, Michigan, Washington, Florida State.
In this scenario Texas would be the fifth team left out, but I just don't think the committee would take a one loss team over an undefeated FSU even with the quarterback issues for FSU.
I think this scenario is the only one where a 12-1 Big 12 champion Texas gets left out of the playoff.
If all four undefeated teams win, the playoff committee's job is relatively easy.
But how often does college football make everything easy?
2. If any undefeated team loses, they're probably out of the playoff.
Yes, even Michigan.
And even Georgia.
Barring a situation where Texas and Florida State, for instance, both lose, which would open up an additional spot for a losing title team, the math just doesn't work out for a conference title game loser to get in.
I think this is particularly tough for Georgia, which has now won 29 straight games, is the two time defending national champion, and will be the number one team in the playoff rankings that come out this week.
ATLANTA, GA - NOVEMBER 25: Georgia Bulldogs running back Kendall Milton (2) forges through the line during the Saturday evening college football game between the #1 ranked Georgia Bulldogs and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on November 25, 2023 at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
I think Georgia is clearly and indisputably one of the four best teams in the country. But there are so many good teams with sterling records this year that the Bulldogs are in a tough spot. Interestingly, if Alabama doesn't complete the miracle fourth and goal conversion against Auburn, I think the Bulldogs would have been in no matter what happened in the SEC title game. (An 11-2 Alabama team even with a win over Georgia would have been seen as inferior to a 12-1 Georgia team, I think.)
But with the Tide's win, Georgia has to win now.
And so does Michigan.
I think if Iowa pulled off the upset and then all the other top teams won, Michigan would be the odd team out. (Partly this would be because you know that deep down several on the committee want Michigan out of the playoff.)
So all four undefeated teams, barring multiple upsets, need to win to make the playoff.
3. Okay, let's start with the difficult choices.
What happens if Michigan, Washington, Florida State and Texas win, but Alabama beats Georgia?
Michigan, Washington and Florida State are in and then you would have to decide between Alabama and Texas.
I think Alabama would be out of the playoff. The committee would be forced to determine a final playoff bid between 12-1 Texas and 12-1 Alabama and I don't see how you can elevate Alabama after Texas won by double digits at Alabama. Yes, that's true even if it was the second week of the season. That's also true, I think, even if Alabama tries to argue they are playing better than Texas right now. No one who watched Auburn, who could barely throw the ball, gauge the Alabama defense on play after play can argue the Tide looked good in the Iron Bowl yesterday.
AUSTIN, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 24: Keilan Robinson #7 of the Texas Longhorns breaks a tackle by Maurion Horn #22 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders and scores a touchdown in the third quarter at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on November 24, 2023 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
So I think the only possible scenario where the SEC misses out on the final playoff is the above situation.
This means the SEC title game winner is probably in, but not certainly in.
(One caveat here, the FSU quarterback situation. Tate Rodemaker went 12 of 25 for 134 yards in the Seminole win over Florida and got a crushing late targeting hit that brought in a true freshman third stringer for a couple of snaps. I don't think the committee would use Jordan Travis's injury as justification to knock a 13-0 FSU out of the playoff, but they could. After all, the committee is just a group of voters. They can do whatever they want in the end.)
4. Is the Pac 12 winner 100% in?
Yes, if it's Washington, no, if it's Oregon.
How so?
Let's say Georgia, Michigan, and Florida State all win. Those three teams would all be in the playoff. (Again, barring the committee going rogue and leaving out FSU over the quarterback injury). Then you have Texas and Oklahoma both win their conference titles at 12-1. I think, think, the committee would pick Oregon in this situation, but I'm not 100% certain.
It could get more complicated though, what if Alabama upsets Georgia and only Michigan and Florida State win. Then you'd have two spots for 12-1 conference champs. Which two get picked then? I'll discuss this scenario below.
5. What's the most difficult situation for the playoff committee?
Probably this one: Alabama beats Georgia, Oregon beats Washington, Texas beats Oklahoma State, Florida State beats Louisville, and Michigan beats Iowa.
In this scenario you'd only have two undefeated teams: Michigan and Florida State would be both in the playoff.
GAINESVILLE, FL - NOVEMBER 25: Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Vandrevius Jacobs (19) reacts after the game between the Florida Gators and the Florida State Seminoles on November 25, 2023 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium at Florida Field in Gainesville, Fl. (Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
So which three 12-1 teams get the final two spots? My guess is Texas gets in by virtue of the head-to-head win over Alabama. so that makes the Longhorns the three seed. But then you have to pick between Oregon and Alabama.
Which team is the pick?
I'd lean Alabama by virtue of what would be a win over the number one team, Georgia.
But Oregon would have just wiped away its only loss of the season and the Ducks are rolling.
Good luck to the committee making this decision.
(In this scenario I actually think Michigan losing would make things easier, as I'll discuss below.)
6. What if every undefeated team loses?
College football fans love chaos scenarios and this would be the ultimate chaos scenario.
In this situation, you'd have conference champions like 11-2 Louisville, 11-2 Iowa, and 10-3 Oklahoma State.
But with none of these upset conference champion teams in the mix for the playoff, I actually think the committee's decision wouldn't be very hard at all.
You'd get a playoff four of: Oregon, Alabama, Michigan and Georgia, which would be the four best one loss teams.
7. Okay, let's do away with scenarios and pretend the committee just had to pick the four best teams right now, who do you think they are?
If all that mattered was picking the best four, and it never is, remember that the committee is simultaneously weighing best and most deserving teams and that doesn't always result in the same four teams, I think the four best teams are: Georgia, Michigan, Oregon, and Texas in that order. I would have Alabama at fifth and Ohio State at sixth.
But, again, the committee isn't just going to pick the four best.
The committee will be weighing a combination of best and most deserving.
8. Iowa, Oklahoma State, Louisville, and Ohio State have no chance to make the playoff.
I want to eliminate this from discussion right now.
The math doesn't add up, stop with the Tweets and emails.
Your teams aren't making the playoff this year no matter what happens.
MANHATTAN, KS - NOVEMBER 25: Iowa State Cyclones players celebrate with fans after a Big 12 football game between the Iowa State Cyclones and Kansas State Wildcats on Nov 25, 2023 at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, KS. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
9. How does Vegas see the title odds?
First, here are the gambling odds for the title games in order of the biggest favorites:
Michigan -22.5 vs. Iowa
Texas -11.5. vs. Oklahoma State
Oregon -8.5 vs. Washington
Georgia -5.5 vs. Alabama
FSU -4.5 vs. Louisville
And if you're wondering what the chances are that all five favorites win, that moneyline parlay would pay out this morning at +283 when I just plugged it in. So that's not likely to happen based on those odds.
Okay, what about the title odds themselves:
Michigan +185
Georgia +200
Oregon +500
Alabama +900
Texas +900
Washington +2000
Florida State +2800
Ohio State is there at 65-1 and Iowa is there at 1000 to 1. I'm guessing those bets are for if Michigan was deemed ineligible, otherwise there is no scenario where either team makes the playoff.
10. My Outkick national top ten
Remember, as always, I rank entirely based on what happens on the field, not what I think would happen.
This is the easiest, and least controversial, year of SEC power rankings I can remember. The better team almost always won. In fact, I think the biggest conference game upset of the year in the SEC ended up being Florida beating Tennessee back in September. And even that wasn't that big of an upset. The Gators won as an eight point underdog. Otherwise the favorites almost always won every game.