Clay Travis's Starting 11: Northern Illinois Delivers An Upset For The Ages

​In the final minutes of the game in South Bend you could sense American football fans of all persuasions coming together in unison, as we all switched from the game we were watching to ensure we didn't miss history in the making -- a nearly thirty point underdog who most college football fans couldn't name a single player or coach on -- Northern Illinois -- had the Fighting Irish on the ropes, driving late down a single point 14-13.

It's at times like these that all the controversies fade for college football fans, all the questions about NIL or the transfer portal or power conferences or automatic playoff bids, all of them fade away into fan nirvana, nothing else matters but the waning seconds on the clock, the play calls, a referee's spot, the multitude of gridiron chaos that distills itself to a single question: will the favorite manage to escape, to wrangle off the hook at the last instant, or will we all witness an historic upset?

Yes, Northern Illinois got an awful spot and had a clear first down on their final drive, yes, they should have changed it on the review, yes, somehow, Notre Dame avoided having to take its final timeout in the maelstrom of the final minute's chaos, but ultimately none of it mattered. Because for one glorious Saturday afternoon, Northern Illinois bombed through a 35 yard field goal and then withstood a final Fighting Irish rally to post one of the biggest upsets in college football history.

And in the end there was a coach most of us couldn't name beforehand -- Thomas Hammock -- was there crying on the screen talking about what the win meant to him and the program and I would venture to say, there were a few of your home viewing rooms where it suddenly got really dusty too.  

If you haven't already seen it, watch it above, this is it, this is why so many of us love college football more than any other sport -- because almost every weekend across this tumultuous land of college football obsessives something truly unbelievable and unpredictable really does happen.

With that in mind, let's dive into the Starting 11.

1. Texas completely obliterated Michigan

The Longhorns may not be the best team in college football right now, but they now have the best win.

And they didn't just beat Michigan, they dominated every aspect of the game from start to finish and left no doubt that the Wolverines are a shell of the team they were last year. Many are going to make Conor Stalions jokes, but I think this is about a massive decline in overall talent from last year's team to this year's more than it is about any coaching or scouting issue.

The quarterback position in particular, is a monster talent decline. Davis Warren just doesn't look like a quarterback capable of taking this team to the playoffs or contending at a high level in the Big Ten.

ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN - SEPTEMBER 07: Quinn Ewers #3 of the Texas Longhorns rushes during the first quarter against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium on September 07, 2024 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Meanwhile Texas is clearly a team that should be favored to make the playoff going forward. But where does Michigan go from here? The Wolverine schedule is actually not that tough, relatively speaking, the game at Ohio State looks like a loss, to be sure, but Michigan otherwise could beat anyone on their schedule.

The problem is, they've been exposed as playoff pretenders and I think they finish somewhere around 8-4.

As for Texas, Quinn Ewers was incredible -- he moved phenomenally well in the pocket and had complete command of the Longhorn offense -- and I think you'd have to make him the Heisman favorite right now.

With the next three games at home in Austin against UTSA, UL-Monroe, and Mississippi State, the Longhorns figure to be 5-0 when the Oklahoma game on October 12th happens. Then the next week Georgia comes to town on October 19th on what figures to be an absolute blockbuster game. Then the SEC schedule is kind -- Vandy, Florida, Arkansas, Kentucky -- before a finish on the road at Texas A&M.

Again, I think you have to make the Longhorns a big favorite to make the playoff and a trip to Atlanta for the SEC title game is certainly in the mix too.

For now, as you'll see below, I have Texas as my number one team in the country.    

2. Notre Dame's upset loss really does scramble the playoff picture early in the college football season

Last week some idiot wrote this about Notre Dame's big win over Texas A&M:

"I know, I know, it's week one.

And no one ever knows anything after week one in college football, but, seriously, Notre Dame is probably going to make the playoff.

Look at this remaining schedule for the Fighting Irish: Northern Illinois, at Purdue, Miami of Ohio, Louisville, Stanford, at Georgia Tech, at Navy, Florida State, Virginia, Army, at USC.

It's probable that Notre Dame will be favored in all these games, save, maybe, USC on the road.

Is it possible Notre Dame could lose one of these games, sure. In fact, that may even be likely.

SOUTH BEND, IN - SEPTEMBER 07: Northern Illinois Huskies defensive end Pierce Oppong (99) and his teammates react to the upset victory against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on September 7, 2024, at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana. (Photo by Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

But is it very likely that Notre Dame is going to lose two or more games? I don't think so. And given we now have a 12 team playoff, an 11-1 Notre Dame is definitely in the playoff. And a 10-2 Notre Dame might well be in the playoff too."

So much for that brilliant take from me.

Just one week later it now appears unlikely that Notre Dame will make the playoff. Because the Fighting Irish didn't just lose to a nearly thirty point underdog, they made us question everything about their win in College Station in week one.

Notre Dame didn't just lose, this didn't even look that much like an upset, Northern Illinois just looked like the better team. This wasn't that fluky of an outcome. The Fighting Irish were outgained by over a hundred yards by Northern Illinois, they were outrushed, and Northern Illinois led for much of the game. That's a credit to Northern Illinois, but it means the actual results of this game didn't look like a traditional huge underdog upset. As a result, I think you have to presume Notre Dame isn't likely to run the table the rest of the way and I think even a 10-2 Notre Dame team, depending on the rest of the playoff resumes out there, may well struggle to impress voters enough to keep them highly ranked.

That's partially because the Notre Dame schedule just isn't that strong.

In the space of a single week Notre Dame has fallen victim to the awful college football curse, penthouse to outhouse, national title contender to are you sure we have the right coach in the space of seven days.

I love this sport.  

3. Colorado is nowhere near a top 25 program, but Nebraska may be on their way to being one again

Deion Sanders has brought a ton of attention to the Colorado football program. But what hasn't happened is very many wins. On Saturday night in Lincoln Nebraska, Deion's team fell behind 28-0 and that lead was so insurmountable that even Nebraska fans didn't have to worry about it very much.

The domination happened on the lines of scrimmage where Colorado ran the ball 16 times for just 22 yards.

Put simply, the offensive and defensive lines of Colorado are really weak. And nothing is changing that this season.

Colorado feels to me like a team with a flat tire that is still trying to drive full speed on the interstate. Eventually something bad will happen. In fact, as Trey Wallace showed, it may have already happened with Shedeur Sanders bailing with two minutes left in the game and heading to the locker room.

Two years into his coaching tenure at Colorado Deion is 5-9, with only one conference win. His son, Shedeur, and his two way phenom star, Travis Hunter, are both leaving after this season, which will see the Buffaloes struggle to get bowl eligible even with two first round talents.

What then?

Will Deion stay? Will most Colorado fans want him to stay? I just don't see anything Colorado is building that will have any lasting value at all. Deion has mostly ignored recruiting in favor of the transfer portal, but that doesn't seem to be paying off at all. Ultimately you need the horses on your offensive and defensive lines and Colorado doesn't have either.

This isn't a young program, but they are still posting young program results.  

4. Nebraska, on the other hand, looks like it is building a top 25 program again

It's an interesting comparison -- Deion Sanders vs. Matt Rhule.

Both men took over programs in the 1990's that won national championships and have failed to reclaim that past glory. (Nebraska is clearly the much more storied program, but both have fallen on troubled times over the past generation or so.)

Unlike Deion, Matt Rhule, who is also a famous head coach, has received minimal attention as he's undertaken his rebuild.

We've gotten two interesting tests -- last year Rhule's Nebraska team lost to Colorado en route to a 5-7 record. But Rhule's first year quietly featured three Big Ten wins, and, as befits the Cornhuskers for a generation, some agonizingly close losses too. Most people haven't paid much attention to Rhule, he's probably gotten 1/1000th the media attention as Deion -- yet Rhule's team seems to be much closer to a top 25 return. Rhule has a five star young quarterback, he's got Northern Iowa and Illinois both in Lincoln for his next two games, meaning there's a decent shot for a 4-0 start.

BOULDER, CO - SEPTEMBER 09: Colorado cornerback Carter Stoutmire (23) tackles Nebraska wide receiver Billy Kemp IV (1) during the home opener game between the Colorado Buffaloes and the the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Saturday, September 9, 2023 at Folsom Field in Boulder, CO.  (Photo by Nick Tre. Smith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Then the rest of the schedule only has Ohio State and USC currently ranked in the top 25.

This means that unlike Colorado, Nebraska actually looks likely to make a bowl this season.

And if you had to pick a coach to buy stock in, Matt Rhule or Deion, it's no contest, Nebraska is ascending, Colorado is, at best, staying in neutral.

Nebraska with a fraction of the attention is doing what most of the national media has tried to tell you Colorado is doing -- climbing back into national contention.  

5. Tennessee is back as a legitimate title contender and top ten caliber program

Two years ago Josh Heupel's Volunteers came out of nowhere to finish 11-2 behind Hendon Hooker's leadership. The 11 win season was symbolized by a 52-49 win over Alabama that still gives Tennessee fans goosebumps every time we think about it.

But that win came with a senior quarterback and much of the glee of the season was diminished when Hooker tore his ACL and the Vol defense fell apart in a South Carolina beatdown in late November.

11-2 was a great season given expectations, but the tantalizing potential of an 8-0 start made it bittersweet.

Last season Joe Milton was an inconsistent playmaker and the team lost to all three big rivals -- Florida, Alabama and Georgia -- en route to a 9-4 season.

So while Tennessee was clearly better under Heupel, the question of whether the Vols were going to be able to sustain the 2022 rise, that saw Tennessee emerge as a legit title contender, was still out there.

No longer.

Nico is going to get a ton of attention -- deservedly so, he's the best freshman quarterback at Tennessee since Peyton Manning -- but the defense is what many are overlooking, in particular the defensive front.

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA - SEPTEMBER 07: Nico Iamaleava #8 of the Tennessee Volunteers rushes for a touchdown during the third quarter of the Duke's Mayo Classic against the NC State Wolfpack at Bank of America Stadium on September 07, 2024 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

Tennessee scored 51 points in a neutral site game against N.C. State and didn't even play that well on offense.

But I want to talk about the defense here, they were dominant. N.C. State only had 143 yards of total offense, 104 passing and just 39 rushing yards on 28 carries. That is, Tennessee just swallowed up the N.C. State rush attack and that let them come after Grayson McCall with reckless abandon in the pass rush game, where Tennessee features maybe the best pass rusher in college football, James Pearce.

Crazy stat for you, N.C. State started three for three on third downs, all on their first drive. They went 0-12 for the rest of the game, plus two fourth down fails. So after the first drive the Tennessee defense posted a shutout on third or fourth down conversion opportunities.

That's incredible.

This Tennessee defense, I believe, is the best the Vols have had in nearly 20 years.

Now about Nico, he was just okay.

Yes, he had two touchdown passes and a rushing touchdown, but he threw two interceptions too. (On one of those he was too aggressive, on the second, he got hit as he passed and just had bad luck. He also had one, are you kidding me, deep touchdown pass called back because of a lineman down field penalty.)

You also got a sneak peak late at his ability to change the game with his running ability -- he converted a fourth down with his legs and also had a 31 yard TD scamper that looked so easy it felt like a scout team drill.

I suspect Tennessee is trying to limit Nico's runs to try and keep him 100% healthy for the top teams they play.

Well, Vegas had N.C. State pegged as the fourth most difficult game on the Vol schedule and Tennessee won by 41.

The other three toughest games per Vegas? At Oklahoma, Alabama, and at Georgia. If Tennessee can go 1-2 or better in those three, and Nico stays healthy and keeps getting better, Tennessee has a real shot at making the playoff. And Atlanta for the SEC title game isn't out of the question either.

Yes, Nico is going to get the hype, but the defense, to me, is the real story so far. They look like the late 1990's, early 2000's era Vol defenses.

And if that eventually gets paired with a stellar Nico?

Look out, the ceiling is national title contender high.    

Okay, I can't resist, you want the absolutely most bullish orange colored sky Nico take out there? There's a scene in the Matrix when Neo, who is being trained by Morpheus, suddenly learns kung fu. And everyone is running around like crazy because they realize what his true talent potential is. Nico could be college football Neo -- yes, this would make Josh Heupel Morpheus in my analogy -- and each week he's learning a new application and with each new addition making him even more unbeatable because his teammates see it and believe in him too, which elevates all of their play.

Again, it's the most bullish scenario possible.

But we've seen it before with a young quarterback in his first year as a starter and an offensive coach ahead of the game.

When?

With Cam Newton and Gus Malzahn on Auburn's national title run in 2010.

It's still early, but if you want a college football parallel and are a Nico believer, it's that, Nico's Cam.

Only with a better defense.  

6. Oregon looks wobbly.

The Ducks entered 2024 as a trendy pick to win the Big Ten -- I know, it's tough to get used to saying that, isn't it? -- and contend for the national title but so far they haven't looked like a top 25 team, much less a title contender.

EUGENE, OR - SEPTEMBER 07: Oregon Ducks wide receiver Traeshon Holden (1) runs after the catch for what would be a 59-yard touchdown during a college football game between the Oregon Ducks and Boise State Broncos on September 7, 2024, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. (Photo by Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Oregon survived against Idaho and was lucky to get past Boise State last night. (I actually fell asleep after midnight watching this game so had to wake up early this morning and catch up on what happened).

It's still early in the Big Ten season, but the only team that has looked the part of a true national title contender so far is Ohio State.

And the Buckeyes still haven't played anyone of note yet.

Indeed, when's the first truly big game for Ohio State? At Oregon on October 12th, which is shaping up to be an incredible day for college football, but also the true test for Oregon and where they fit in this season.

So far Vegas likes them much more than what their performance has justified.

7. South Carolina smoked Kentucky in the first SEC game of 2024 and Auburn looked awful against California

I know most of you didn't watch either of these games, but I try to watch everything on Saturday's.

Leaving aside the NIU win over Notre Dame, I'm not sure anything surprised me more than South Carolina's destruction of Kentucky every time the Wildcats tried to pass the ball. Someone needs to put a cut together of this, I've never seen worse pass blocking in an SEC game. I texted one of my Kentucky fan buddies from law school that we blocked better in law school intramural flag football than the Wildcats did yesterday.

Kentucky went 6-17 passing for 44 yards.

I'm not even sure how you can attempt 17 passes and end up with just 44 yards.

Big win for the Gamecocks here as a double digit road underdog, but as for the Wildcat future in the SEC with this pass blocking? Gulp.  

As for Auburn, big win for ACC stalwart -- really, that happened -- California down on the Plains. Hugh Freeze's team turned the ball over five times and fell apart in what should have been a winnable game. The Tigers have a ton of work to do with at Georgia, at Missouri and at Alabama on the schedule.

It looks like 8-4 at the absolute best for Auburn and that might be optimistic. 

8. Alabama and Penn State both survived very mediocre performances as over 30 point favorites

I've made this analogy before, but we've essentially entered the NCAA tournament era of college football -- just survive and advance.

Your team, especially with the transfer portal and perpetual college free agency, is probably going to toss out a couple of clunkers in a season. And teams you don't expect, flush with new talent, will rise up and challenge in ways you didn't expect.

STATE COLLEGE, PA - SEPTEMBER 07: Tyler Warren #44 of the Penn State Nittany Lions carries the ball against the Bowling Green Falcons during the second half at Beaver Stadium on September 7, 2024 in State College, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

We are in the era of the upset.  

The goal, especially if you are trying to make the playoff, is just to find a way to avoid awful losses.

Every game is not going to be a masterpiece. But if you can fight your way to 10-2 in a power four conference, you're going to be in the playoff mix every year.

That's what Alabama and Penn State found a way to do on Saturday and it's what Notre Dame couldn't manage.    

9. How does Vegas see the top ten national title contenders after two weeks?

These are Sunday morning's odds from Fan Duel.

1. Georgia +270
2. Ohio State +350
3. Texas +550
4. Alabama +1100
5. Oregon +1100
6. Ole Miss +1500
7. Penn State +1800
8. Miami +2000
9. Tennessee +2200
10. Missouri +4000
11. USC +4000
12. Utah +4000

Several of these teams, clearly, haven't been tested yet, and as I mentioned above, Oregon has looked wobbly to me.

But Georgia, Texas, Miami, USC and Tennessee, to me, have all provided solid playoff resume wins so far and Vegas seems to believe in each of these teams as well.

10. My Outkick National Top Ten:

Reminder, I only rank teams based on their performance on the field. In doing so, I give preference to wins over power four conference opponents, particularly in road or neutral match ups.

So far this season the five most impressive wins I've seen are by Texas over Michigan, Georgia over Clemson, Miami over Florida, USC over LSU, and Tennessee over N.C. State. Not coincidentally that's also my top five.

Crazy, I know.

Notre Dame had what we thought was a really good win over Texas A&M, but then the Fighting Irish lost to Northern Illinois so we've bumped NIU into the top ten rankings and Notre Dame is gone. That's the biggest swing for week two.  

1. Texas
2. Georgia
3. Miami
4. USC
5. Tennessee
6. Northern Illinois
7. Iowa State
8. Vanderbilt
9. Nebraska
10. Illinois

11. SEC power rankings 1-16

Reminder part two: I only rank teams based on the results we've seen on the field so far, not based on what I expect those results to be.

This means, yes, that I have Vanderbilt as the fourth best team in the SEC right now. How could I possibly make this decision? Simple, because Vandy has the fourth best win in the SEC so far this season.

It's also worth noting, we are only in week two -- and just one conference game has been played -- and already almost half of the SEC has lost.  

Each week we will readjust as the season continues.

1. Texas
2. Georgia
3. Tennessee
4. Vanderbilt
5. Ole Miss
6. Missouri
7. Alabama
8. South Carolina
9. Oklahoma
10. LSU
11. Texas A&M
12. Arkansas
13. Florida
14. Mississippi State
15. Auburn
16. Kentucky