Clay Travis' Starting 11: Narrowing Down The Contenders
November is essentially here -- even if it was still 80 degrees in much of the South yesterday -- and it feels to me like we are down to 12 playoff contenders across the five major conferences.
How do I make that calculation? By simply eliminating every team in the power five with at least two losses. I know, I know, two loss teams like LSU, North Carolina and even USC and Tennessee can sketch out fanciful pathways to the playoff predicated on winning out their schedules, but the playoff data reflects that two loss teams aren't going to climb their way into the final four. (There will be, however, many two loss and probably even three loss teams that make the 12 team playoff in the years ahead, which is why I think the playoff expansion will actually strengthen the overall college football brand. In fact, there are probably 35 teams that would still be alive for the playoff if we had a 12 team playoff this year.)
So which one loss teams are alive for the playoff as we enter November?
Here are the 12:
SEC: Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss
Big 12: Oklahoma and Texas
Pac 12: Oregon and Washington
ACC: Florida State and Louisville
Big Ten: Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State
Now there are some of these one loss teams that I think, candidly, have a very small chance of making the playoff -- would, for instance, 12-1 ACC champion Louisville get in the playoff? I don't think so.
But this is your field of 12 to consider as we enter November.
Before the season my playoff four was: Georgia, Florida State, Michigan and USC.
The only team I'd jettison at this point is USC, I still feel like my top three make it.
And we could even end up with four undefeated conference champions, making the playoff selection the easiest job possible. But if I had to predict the playoff right now as we enter November I'd go with this: Georgia, Michigan, Florida State and Oregon.
I think the Ducks are playing the best in the Pac 12 right now and I feel like chaos -- and a two loss champion -- beckons in the Big 12.
But let's get rolling with the Starting 11.
1. Oklahoma loses to Kansas and the Big 12 title race is completely wide open.
First, congrats to Kansas, that's the first win over Oklahoma since 1997, the first win over a top ten team in Lawrence since 1984, and Lance Leipold has officially turned the Jayhawk football program around.
But let's talk about the situation right now in the Big 12 because we've now got 7-1 Texas and 7-1 Oklahoma out there and it feels to me like the Big 12 may be on the ropes in terms of putting a team in the playoff.
Oklahoma has to go to Oklahoma State next week, which will be an absolute slobberknocker, and then still gets West Virginia, at BYU and TCU to finish the season. The way the Sooners are playing right now -- a close victory over UCF and a close loss to Kansas -- it doesn't feel to me like OU runs the table and is 11-1 in the Big 12 title game. In fact, I think Oklahoma State beats them next week to essentially knock the Sooners from the playoff contenders.
And how about Texas? Yes, the Longhorns got the win over BYU without Quinn Ewers, but Texas still has Kansas State, at TCU, at Iowa State, and Texas Tech to finish 11-1. If Quinn Ewers was healthy, I'd feel different, but this feels like a tough road to win out too.
So if I had to bet right now, I think the Big 12 plays itself out of playoff contention over the next couple of weeks.
2. Georgia dominated Florida.
Georgia stiff armed the Gators in the Jacksonville. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)
This is what I get for finally buying in on Florida to cover as a big underdog, the Gators got totally destroyed in the Cocktail Party.
The win gets Georgia to 8-0 and sets up this final four for the Bulldogs: Missouri, Ole Miss, at Tennessee, and at Georgia Tech. I'm genuinely fascinated to see what happens for Georgia against Missouri in Athens this weekend. Yes, the Tigers are 7-1, but the schedule hasn't been that tough. Does Mizzou get exposed at Georgia like Kentucky did a few weeks ago or can the Tigers give the Bulldogs a run? Vegas is expecting a blowout, Georgia is -17.5 against Mizzou for Saturday.
And don't sleep on Ole Miss. No one is paying attention to Lane Kiffin's team, but the Rebels are quietly 7-1. If they can beat Texas A&M this coming weekend in Oxford, Ole Miss would head to Georgia as a top ten team with a good shot at a ten or eleven win season. My point? Georgia is likely to play three top 15 caliber teams in three straight weeks, with the final game in Knoxville on November 18th. The Vols, who won a tough game at Kentucky, will be riding a 14 game home win streak by that points.
Win all four and no matter what happens in Atlanta, I think it would be tough to leave out a 12-1 two time defending national title team from the final four.
Yes, even if Alabama ran the table and finished 12-1 to beat Georgia and win the SEC championship.
Some of y'all may disagree with me on this, but I think the SEC, depending on what happens in the rest of college football, would have a good shot at getting two playoff teams in this scenario, I really do.
Because Alabama would be in the playoff -- absent Michigan, Florida State and Washington finishing undefeated and 12-1 Texas winning the Big 12 -- and while you're only supposed to judge a team based on this year's record, are you really telling me that Georgia going for a third straight title wouldn't factor into the committee's minds?
Now I don't think Alabama's going to run the table and finish 12-1, and I'm on the record as actually thinking Georgia will lose at Tennessee on November 18th, even though some of you believe I'm crazy for that, but I do think it's worth contemplating that we may end up with two 12-1 teams in the SEC and that Georgia might not win the SEC title. (Georgia could also lose to 11-2 LSU if LSU ran the table, by the way, but I don't think 11-2 LSU would get in over 12-1 Georgia.)
And heck, what if Ole Miss ran the table and finished 11-1? The Rebs could be 11-1 and not make the SEC title game. And what if Tennessee ran the table and finished 10-2 and won the SEC East? (Georgia would lose the tiebreak to Tennessee in this scenario.) And what if LSU ran the table and won the SEC West? Would 11-2 SEC champ Tennessee or 11-2 SEC champ LSU get in the playoff or could the SEC get totally left out?
Heck, as I laid out above, a 12-1 SEC champ Alabama could even get left out.
I'm just saying, there are still some wacky scenarios out there in the SEC that could put two teams in the mix for the playoff or none at all.
3. Oregon posted one of the most impressive wins of the season by crushing a very good Utah team.
The Ducks still have a schedule gauntlet to run, but as I said above I would bet on them finishing with wins vs. California, a collapsing USC team, at Arizona State and with a victory over Oregon State in Autzen.
That would put Oregon in the Pac 12 title game at 11-1 and put the Pac 12, if Washington could get there with one loss or less, in a position to guarantee itself a playoff spot.
With the win at Stanford last night, Washington has to go to USC, gets Utah, then goes to Oregon State and finishes with Washington State.
But Washington isn't playing that well right now. Which means the chances of the Huskies being 12-0 are diminishing. The Pac 12 has to, I think, hold out hope the Huskies can go 3-1 in that final four and get to the title game at 11-1 because that would essentially guarantee the conference a playoff spot.
4. Everyone is talking about the Michigan play stealing allegations and what might happen as a result.
Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh is in the middle of a controversy that has no signs of a resolution. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Here's why I don't think anything is going to happen during the regular season: I just don't buy that anyone in a position of power, not Michigan, not the Big Ten and not the NCAA, is going to take action against Michigan during the season.
Let me break down each of these actors and explain why I don't think they will do anything.
First, Michigan. Can you imagine being in charge of the University of Michigan and pulling yourself out of Big Ten and national title contention when you are a dominant 8-0 and pursuing your first national title since 1997? There is just no way in hell that anyone at Michigan is risking their job and putting thousands of irate donors in their email inboxes threatening to pull all their money over a decision like this. It's just not happening.
Rest assured of this.
Remember what Auburn did with Cam Newton back in 2011, in what is probably the best modern example of a situation where a national title contending team was skating on the fine line of NCAA rules violations. They just buckled down and dared the NCAA and the SEC to prove anything. And even though I think just about everyone believes Cam Newton was paid, it was never proven to a concrete degree and so Auburn is still the 2011 champs. While the situations are not exactly analogous, that's the playbook I'm following if I'm in charge of Michigan.
Second, the Big Ten has a brand new commissioner with limited power. Heck, I bet most of you can't even name the Big Ten commissioner. He's Tony Petitti. Do you think he wants to risk his brand new job by weighing in and punishing one of the two biggest programs in the Big Ten? No way, no how. He's going to leave this to the NCAA and avoid making any drastic decision himself.
Okay, so what about the NCAA, do they have the power or the authority to do anything here? Maybe. Do they have the ability to act with alacrity and do something before the season is over? I don't think so. And even if they did something, what precedent is there to kick a major program out of national title contention in the middle of a season? I can't recall this ever happening. And even if they tried, guess what, my guess is Michigan would file lawsuits, in the state of Michigan no less, and every state of Michigan politician, yes, both Democrat and Republican, would line up to support the Wolverines because it's great politics to fight the NCAA. And how would the team not be able to get an injunction against any punishment to allow them to complete the season? Because how could you not prove this would be a permanent injury if they were later found to be innocent of wrongdoing?
I just don't see any way there's any resolution to this issue until years from now, probably after Jim Harbaugh is already in the NFL coaching games there.
Maybe the ultimate analogy, honestly, is the Fab Five, just like the Final Four banners were eventually taken down, in the event Michigan were to win a title maybe, possibly they could try and force the title to be vacated. But that would be years and years from now before any final resolution occurred. Sure, the Fab Five didn't actually win a title, but I just think the chances of a vacated title are slim.
Remember, I'm not even litigating whether this is a rules violation worthy of severe censure. I'm just analyzing, in a totally rational way, I think, the calculus of what's likely to happen here. Not what I think should happen, mind you. I'm not analyzing the allegations at all, just the political realities of how I believe the actors here are likely to behave.
One final thought, the NCAA and maybe even the Big Ten itself, certainly wouldn't mind if Michigan lost and didn't make it to the title game or the playoff. That would make their decision way easier because it would take a title out of play and make any punishment much less impactful. But it's possible this all galvanizes the Michigan team, much as seemed to occur with Auburn in 2011. Which is why I come back to Auburn 2011 as the best college football analogy I can think of for what Michigan is dealing with right now.
Then, as now, there were constant feverish updates from national and regional college football writers. Everyone was obsessively checking Twitter, which was then in its infancy, for the absolute latest news. Many different teams, all rivals of Auburn's, were leaking stories about the Cam Newton allegations. But Auburn just lawyered up and said find the smoking gun and the NCAA and the SEC never did.
I suspect that's what will happen here too with Michigan.
My point, if you want Michigan to not be the 2023 champ, someone is going to have to beat them on the field.
5. Let's talk Penn State and Ohio State's wins.
Michigan didn't even play, and the Wolverines are the biggest story in college football this week.
But Penn State and Ohio State did play and both notched victories. But the Nittany Lions performance against Indiana, on the heels of the woeful offensive performance at Ohio State, has pretty much convinced me that Penn State isn't a national title contender this year. They're a solid team, top 10ish, even, but not a bona fide playoff contender.
Now my analysis could completely change in a couple of weeks if the Nittany Lions beat Michigan in Happy Valley. And maybe this was just a prolonged hangover after the loss at Ohio State. But the past two weeks have convinced me that Penn State isn't on the same level as Michigan or Ohio State.
It would certainly add to the drama if I'm wrong, but I expect Michigan to be undefeated when Ohio State rolls into Ann Arbor.
Speaking of Ohio State, they got the road win at Wisconsin. And it was essentially the same kind of performance we've seen all year from Ohio State, plodding, defensive dominated, and without much flash. This is why I think Ohio State will lose for a third straight year to Michigan.
Already you're hearing some discussion about whether 11-1 Ohio State, with a loss at Michigan, would be a playoff contender, much like we saw happen last year.
I think the answer is yes, especially if Notre Dame keeps winning. (You know things have changed in a hurry when we've gone in a couple of years from beating Clemson is a program defining win for Notre Dame to if Notre Dame loses at Clemson it's a super disappointing loss. Clemson is presently, by the way, in 10th place in the ACC, 2-4 in the conference so far.)
As I discussed above, there's still a ton of potential chaos out there, but if you're an Ohio State fan nervous about the Michigan game, you need to be rooting for a bunch of upsets in the Big 12 and the Pac 12 to keep yourself in the mix even with a loss.
But at this point, I think the chances of a non conference winner in the playoff are low.
6. Florida State just keeps winning.
WINSTON-SALEM, NORTH CAROLINA - OCTOBER 28: Jordan Travis #13 of the Florida State Seminoles reacts after runing for a touchdown against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons during the first half of their game at Truist Field on October 28, 2023 in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
I'm dropping the Seminoles to number three in my Outkick top ten, but it's a function of Georgia rising more than it is FSU falling.
Given that both Miami and Florida didn't look great this weekend, FSU finishes with at Pittsburgh, Miami, North Alabama, at Florida and the ACC title game. I expect the Gators will rise up and give FSU a good game in Gainesville, but you have to make the Seminoles a favorite to be 12-0 in the ACC title game.
The challenge at that point for the Seminoles, if they finish 12-0, is the ACC title game will only exist to cost FSU a playoff spot. Because 12-0 FSU will have clearly been the best team in the ACC and would already be in the playoff. So they're playing a "title" game with all the risk and limited reward.
Anyway, just don't sleep on the Seminoles, they continue to roll.
7. Tennessee got a road win at Kentucky.
It won't get a ton of attention, but this was a big win for Josh Heupel's Volunteers.
After a poor second half on the road at Alabama, Heupel's Vols held on at Kentucky -- where has this version of Devin Leary for Kentucky been? -- and there's still a (somewhat remote) path to winning the SEC East for Tennessee. (Georgia would need to lose to Missouri or Ole Miss and Tennessee would have to win at Missouri for that game to be for the SEC East division title.)
But Heupel has, I think, answered the question of whether he's building a solid program at Tennessee and whether last year was just a flash in the pan. The Vols are now likely to follow up an 11 win season with a nine or ten win season, something that hasn't happened in Knoxville since Phil Fulmer's heyday.
And Joe Milton, who has been much criticized for his entire college career, was very good on the road at Kentucky. He finished 18 for 21 passing for 228 yards and even his three misses weren't bad. And for all the attention Heupel's offense gets, Tennessee ran the ball for 253 yards against Kentucky's 72. That's physical dominance at the line of scrimmage.
The Tennessee at Mizzou game is going to be a war -- it will probably take 40+ to win -- but I'm still sticking with my prediction that Tennessee beats Georgia in Neyland on November 18th.
As for Kentucky, it's more of the same for the Wildcats, a hot 5-0 start that has the Bluegrass faithful fired up, followed by a limp to the finish line. It's even possible Kentucky could lose seven straight to finish the year.
Kentucky had to win this game to make the season a success and yet again they lost.
8. I took my 15 year old out driving in the street for the first time yesterday.
I'm convinced it took ten years off my life.
I don't remember the last time I was this nervous in a car.
We had a typical Saturday in the Travis household up until the driving instruction: early morning 7th grade basketball tryouts for the 13 year old, a flag football and a soccer game for the nine year old, college football games on every TV in the house, chick fil a for lunch, just a fun Saturday in the South.
And then, boom, I suddenly decided it was the perfect day for street driving with my 15 year old.
My 15 year old has his learner's permit and can get his driver's license this spring, but I somehow convinced myself that this was going to be super easy and low stress and it was definitely not that at all. We almost hit about twenty parked cars and one guy out watering his lawn has no idea how much mortal peril he was in. I don't know how I'm going to do this with two more kids.
I'm thinking I need to start the younger boys driving golf carts now just to alleviate the stress in the years ahead.
But this is the most stressful part of parenting so far. And I'm not sure what a close second is. Pray for me.
9. I broke down the major conference races and the title contenders as we enter November. Here are what the Vegas national title odds look like as I write this on Sunday morning:
Vegas is basically telling you there are eight real title contenders. Because there's a big odds jump after Texas. And Penn State qualifies as a true longshot right now, which means if you're a Nittany Lions diehard who still believes in this team, you can make a bundle.
Georgia +250
Michigan +250
Florida State +550
Ohio State +700
Oregon +1400
Alabama +1600
Washington +1700
Texas +1700
LSU +3500
Oklahoma +3500
Penn State +8000
10. My Outkick Top Ten
I think this basically has to be everyone's top ten. Now you can argue about the order -- I have Oklahoma too high, probably, but feel like they should be above Texas based on the win head-to-head -- and you can argue Penn State over Ole Miss, but based on the way Penn State played against Indiana, I don't see how you can have them any higher than tenth. And I have Washington above Oregon based on head-to-head, but I would pick Oregon to win the Pac 12 title game over Washington if that game were next week.
1. Michigan
2. Georgia
3. Florida State
4. Ohio State
5. Washington
6. Oregon
7. Oklahoma
8. Texas
9. Alabama
10. Ole Miss
11. SEC power rankings 1-14
I think we have a pretty solid grip on the SEC power rankings as we enter November. The top six teams are pretty much universal, you could quibble with the order of seven to nine, but not the teams I have there. And then ten to 14 is pretty much set as well. Upsets can and will happen, so we'll see how much these change down the stretch run of the season. So far, what's interesting about the SEC season is the lack of upsets in conference play. The favorites have won pretty much every game so far.
1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Ole Miss
4. LSU
5. Missouri
6. Tennessee
7. Texas A&M
8. Kentucky
9. Florida
10. Auburn
11. Mississippi State
12. South Carolina
13. Arkansas
14. Vanderbilt