Clay Travis' Starting 11: Movement After Saturday Showdowns

Michigan is the best team in college football through the first eight weeks of the season and there isn't a close second best.

Now I understand there's a ton of smoke surrounding the program for alleged sign stealing, but unless we uncover some insanely high tech level of sign stealing, every team is doing their best to steal the other team's signs.

And how good would the sign stealing operation have to be to not allow any team to score more than ten points on you all season? There are a ton of college football teams that couldn't stop an opponent even if you knew exactly what play the other team was running. Trust me, I've rooted for many of those teams over the years.

Michigan has won its Big Ten games so far this fall by 24, 38, 42, 45, and 49 points and the defense has only given up 7, 7, 10, 7 and zero points in Big Ten games so far this year. That kind of dominance isn't happening because of sign stealing, it's happening because they're way better than everyone else they've played.

Michigan has looked like the best team in college football. (Photo by Adam Ruff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images).

And in the lookahead lines, Michigan is now favored by over a touchdown against Ohio State for the end of the year game in Ann Arbor.

The Wolverines hit their bye week now and, crazily, get two weeks to get healthy for Purdue. Then comes at Penn State, at Maryland, and Ohio State.

I expect Michigan to finish the season 13-0 and win the Big Ten title.

Tennessee, essentially, played its best half of the year and its worst half of the year in the same game. Breaking down the stats, Tennessee finished with one more first down and the Vols had 404 total yards to Alabama's 358. The two teams were nearly identical at running the football, 38 carries for 133 yards for the Vols and 42 carries for 138 for the Tide. Alabama's defense scored on a fumble return and Tennessee went 0-3 on fourth down, which essentially was three turnovers, and helped to even up the Tide's two turnovers with Tennessee's one.

My biggest takeaway is that for the past two years, essentially, Tennessee has played even football with Alabama. That is, the first half in Tuscaloosa proved last year wasn't a fluke. The long time massive talent advantage that Nick Saban and Alabama have enjoyed over Tennessee, and other SEC teams, has, I think, receded to a great degree.

I also don't think this Alabama team is very good relative to past Tide standards. Yes, they may win the SEC West, heck, they may even win the SEC, but the days of other SEC teams being intimidated by Alabama's clear talent advantage are over. Does that mean the Tide dynasty is finished? Maybe not, but I do think it means Alabama has moved from great to merely good. And good teams can lose two or three games a year.

Back to this game, Tennessee had a chance to deliver a knockout blow, potentially, to the Tide in the first half. Joe Milton, who played his best game of the season, and Josh Heupel schemed up a nearly flawless first half on offense. Milton missed two throws he should have made for touchdowns. A really good college quarterback doesn't miss both those throws. That left eight points on the field in the first half, when Tennessee completely dominated, but settled for two short field goals instead of touchdowns.

Tennessee looked great against Alabama in the first half. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

There are many plays to point to in the second half, but the first three plays set the tone, Alabama hit a 29 yard opening run, followed it up with a 43 yard touchdown pass and then, inexplicably, one of Tennessee's return men, the one who didn't field the ball, evidently signaled a safe sign and the ball was blown dead. But the player who fielded the kick advanced the ball and the resulting penalty put the ball at the four yard line, effectively dooming that drive. Let me just pause here for a moment -- this is an awful rule. The player fielding the ball should be the only one who can fair catch and stop the play. Because he's the only player who is judging the kick and making a decision what to do with the ball. And he has no idea what the other player is doing because he's not watching the other player, he's watching the ball.

I understand not wanting a player to run after signaling a fair catch, but it should only apply to the player catching the ball. And worst case scenario here if you want to stop the play then the ball should go to the 25 like it would on a normal fair catch, not back to where the player who didn't get the ball signaled the fair catch. This is just an awful rule.

Now the game really turned though with the Vols leading 20-17 late in the third quarter, Josh Heupel went for it on fourth down and the Vols got stoned, resulting in a short field touchdown for the Tide that gave Bama a lead they never relinquished. That's probably a situation where a punt to pin Alabama deep should have happened. Or at least a more aggressive play call than a bunch formation handoff.

But, again, my biggest takeaway is Tennessee is now essentially even with Alabama. The teams have played two games, split by both teams, and produced nearly identical total yardage -- 971 for Tennessee to 927 for Alabama.

I expect Tennessee to win against Alabama next year in Neyland and I think if this year's game had been played at Neyland the Vols would have won this year too. I still even think Tennessee will beat Georgia in Neyland too. Why? The Vols have reached the point in their program where they are elite at home and average on the road. That equates to a team being good. The next question for Josh Heupel is whether he can take Tennessee to the next level where there's less of a drop off in performance on the road, whether he can turn the Vols from good to elite. That verdict is still out there.

As for Alabama, the Tide's good not great. Can Saban return the Tide to great? Potentially. Heck, is merely good good enough this year to win the SEC and make the playoff? I think it very well might be, especially since Michigan is the only team so far that looks capable of greatness. (Georgia is still a bit of an enigma to be honest.)

But I can't finish this write up without pointing out the officiating.

It was inexcusably bad.

Changing a first down ruling on the field on a Joe Milton diving scramble when the evidence was clearly not 100% that he was short, missing a clear first down in real time on the final drive of the half when Joe Milton's entire body crossed the first down line, not stopping the clock when a runner clearly went out of bounds under his own power, giving Alabama a first down because the linebacker clapped his hands, the wonky application of a fair catch rule -- as mentioned above, why isn't the ball dead at the 25 yard line if the play is dead instead of at the place where the non-ball receiver signals, how can any player know the signal has happened when he's focusing on catching the ball and making the play?, this is a really dumb rule, the fourth quarter defensive holding call to give the Tide a first down, which wasn't defensive holding on an airmailed pass twenty yards out of bounds. I mean, come on. Alabama, which entered the game as one of the most penalized teams in the SEC, had one penalty for five yards?

When a conference is making billions of dollars, this kind of thing can't happen. (Alabama fans, like my own 13 year old, will complain that the same thing happened last year in Neyland, except Tennessee benefited, but there's a difference between judgment calls and clear procedure penalties, false starts and jumping off sides. Most fans, myself included, have issues with judgment calls not clear procedural penalties. Not one judgment call went against Alabama all game yesterday. You're saying the Tide never held a Tennessee receiver, never held a Tennessee lineman? Come on.)

Here was my first half analysis, by the way. My own son, the Bama fan, wouldn't answer my call at halftime, I had to get the nine year old, who has the good sense to be a Tennessee fan, to get him on the phone. The Tide was shook.

https://twitter.com/Outkick/status/1715845296658243878?s=20

Both teams have very good defenses.

But I just don't think they have the offensive horses to run with Michigan, which may well have an even better defense than both Penn State and Ohio State.

I still don't understand how Penn State couldn't cover Marvin Harrison Jr. on a basic crossing route on third down, that essentially ended the game, but other than a couple of those plays the Ohio State offense lacks explosion and their quarterback play, in my opinion, is pedestrian. On the flip side, Penn State doesn't appear to have any explosive playmakers on offense and Drew Allar isn't athletic enough running the football to make you pay, it felt like the Buckeyes were baiting him into running.

I entered this game thinking at least one of these teams would give Michigan a run, now I don't.

I think Michigan will win at Penn State and beat Ohio State to finish 12-0.

Then they'll smoke a mediocre Big Ten West team in the Big Ten title game.

COLUMBUS, OH - OCTOBER 21: Wide receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith #1 of the Penn State Nittany Lions carries the ball while being tackled by safety Lathan Ransom #8 of the Ohio State Buckeyes during the game at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio on October 21, 2023. (Photo by Jason Mowry/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

But in the event Michigan were to lose to Penn State and then Michigan beat Ohio State so that all three Big Ten East teams finished 11-1, I don't know what the tiebreak scenarios would be, but I just presume Ohio State would win the tiebreak because Ohio State wins every tiebreak in the Big Ten rulebook, it's actually the first rule of the Big Ten rulebook: Ohio State wins all ties.

First, credit to Kyle Whittingham's Utah team, which pretty much just always finds a way to win. He's built an incredible program there and the win on the road at USC is just another huge sign of that program's progress.

But USC, given the fact that they have the reigning Heisman winner and entered the season with national title aspirations, is the story here. With Washington, Oregon and UCLA all still on the schedule, a 7-5 USC season is definitely possible.

If that happens, could Lincoln Riley look toward the NFL?

Some of you are going to think that's crazy of me to ask, but don't underestimate how much NIL and the transfer portal have made college football much more like the NFL. A college coach used to have unquestioned power over his roster and the status of the program. That's why guys like Nick Saban preferred coaching in college more than the pros, they wanted complete and total control of all aspects. But now college coaches are having to function as general managers effectively managing salary caps, player payments, and the neverending transfer portal.

Just coaching and recruiting players is a much smaller part of the game than it has ever been before.

Unlike in the NFL where you draft a guy and are guaranteed to have him for four years thanks to the CBA, you have to constantly negotiate new deals on a yearly basis with your top college players and you now have to manage what sort of NIL payments your players are getting to ensure everyone feels respected and taken care of. If you just want to coach football, the NFL is now the much more stable football league. It used to be that once you recruited a player in college football, you had that player for several years because transferring schools meant you had to sit out a year and most players didn't want to sit out a full year. While NIL has gotten a ton of attention, deservedly so, I actually think eliminating the requirement that players sit out a year if they transfer has been more transformative to the college game. And it's the combo of NIL and the no transfer restrictions rule that has fundamentally altered the way college coaches are forced to manage rosters.

It's been a bad two weeks for the USC Trojans. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images).

Plus, you don't get judged based on the knucklehead decisions your players make in the NFL. Heck, the New England Patriots employed a serial murderer at tight end and no one even uttered a word of criticism about Bill Belichick for giving Aaron Hernandez tens of millions. But if you have a college player get a DUI or get accused of sexual assault, you can lose your job in college football, the coach gets blamed for everything.

Again, I don't know who it will be, but I think college football is going to start losing some coaches because the job has changed, it's less about coaching and recruiting and more about managing payments and rosters.

And Lincoln Riley feels like a prime target here.

So does, by the way, Jim Harbaugh. You get the sense that given the NCAA smoke around him that if Harbaugh could win a national title he might ride off into the college sunset with that victory.

And it might not even take a national title.

If Harbaugh beat Ohio State for a third straight year and won the Big Ten again could he leave regardless?

I wouldn't be stunned.

The Huskies won 15-7 against Arizona State after most of you were in bed asleep.

Here's what the Pac 12 wants in their final season: they want Oregon and Washington both with one loss or fewer for the Pac 12 title game. Because if that happens, the 12-1 Pac 12 champ is virtually guaranteed a playoff spot. (And it doesn't have to be Oregon and Washington, by the way, Oregon State and Utah also have just one loss on the season.)

Washington won a snoozer with Arizona State . (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images).

So what are the odds that happens?

Washington still has at USC, Utah, at Oregon State and Washington State on the schedule. It feels unlikely to me that the Huskies will win all those games. Even losing two wouldn't be a huge surprise.

Okay, what about Oregon?

The Ducks are at Utah, USC, and have Oregon State left.

And Oregon State and Utah also have daunting schedules too.

My point? It's not crazy for Pac 12 fans to be worrying about a two loss champion again. Especially since this is the conference of unexepected upsets.

North Carolina was roughly a 24 point favorite in this game, has a presumptive top two draft pick at quarterback, was undefeated, and Virginia's only win on the season was William & Mary.

So what happens?

Naturally Virginia went on the road and completely stunned the Tar Heels.

It's not November yet, college football chaos is building, you just don't know what crazy underdog is going to win and completely change the trajectory of a season.

Some stats that I saw Chris Fallica from Big Noon Kickoff sharing: Clemson is now 3-5 in its last eight power five conference football games, 5-6 in its last 11, and presently ranked 8th in the ACC.

Can Dabo bring back Clemson to college football royalty?

Maybe.

But he's probably going to need another transcendent college quarterback to make it happen. And those guys don't come along very often. Dabo's dominant run came with Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence calling the shots for him. Those guys are two of the ten best quarterbacks to play the position in the past decade or so of college football.

But it's not just a decline in quarterback, I think you're also seeing Dabo struggle with his continuity at offensive and defensive coordinators ending.

To me it feels like Clemson is now returning to where it has spent most of its college football history, as a fringe top 25 program.

The Seminoles beat a good Duke team -- how often have we had to say that over the past few decades? -- and now don't have a top 25 team left on their schedule.

FSU finishes with at Wake Forest, at Pittsburgh, Miami, North Alabama and at Florida.

I know anything can happen in college football, but at Florida feels like the only game where the Seminoles could face a real danger.

TALLAHASSEE, FL - OCTOBER 21: Runningback Trey Benson #3 of the Florida State Seminoles runs with the ball during the game against the Duke Blue Devils at Doak Campbell Stadium on Bobby Bowden Field on October 21, 2023 in Tallahassee, Florida. (Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images)

I still have the Seminoles ranked second overall in the Outkick poll, but it feels like no one is talking about them at all. Of all the undefeated teams left in college football, no one has an easier path to an undefeated season than FSU, plus that win against LSU, which looked suspect for a while, suddenly looks good again.

https://twitter.com/BNKonFOX/status/1715744103239950362?s=20

We had an awesome time watching the games out on his farm and raising money for a tremendous cause, the Brett Boyer Foundation, which is saving the lives of kids born with congenital heart disease.

If you have the ability to donate, please do. (Brett Boyer Foundation link embed here: thebrettboyerfoundation.org

Here are the ten title favorites and their odds as of this morning.

Michigan +240
Georgia +250
Ohio State +700
Florida State +750
Oklahoma +1300
Washington +1300
Alabama +1500
Texas +1800
Oregon +3000
Penn State +6000

Basically Vegas is telling you there are eight legit title contenders for four spots. (Oregon and Penn State are big title underdogs at this point.) And the easiest way to break this down is it looks like four major conference champs are going to make the playoff. Could one conference get two teams? Sure, chaos happens. But we are trending towards a situation where all five major conferences are going to put forward a playoff worthy champion and four of those teams will be selected.

If we were projecting right now based on schedules and point spreads: Georgia would play Alabama in the SEC title game, Michigan would play someone bad from the Big Ten West, Florida State will play someone that FSU would be favored to beat pretty solidly in the ACC title game, Oklahoma would rematch with Texas, and Oregon and Washington would rematch too.

Basically, it does not appear right now that we are trending towards any two loss conference champions, which has traditionally eliminated those champions from being included in a four team playoff. So four conference champions, which has long been the goal of college football's leaders, looks like the most likely direction we are headed.

You want a scenario that will blow people's minds? The SEC could be the conference champ that gets left out of the playoff. What would that look like? Michigan, Florida State and Washington are undefeated champs and either Oklahoma goes undefeated or Texas comes back to beat Oklahoma for the Big 12 title and finishes 12-1. Even if Alabama beat Georgia to win the SEC at 12-1, the Tide wouldn't get in over 12-1 Texas, who beat Alabama at home, would they? There's still a ton of football to play, but the SEC champ isn't guaranteed a playoff spot this year, has that ever been the case before as we got to Halloween?

As for the Heisman, I'm not sure any odds market is crazier on a weekly basis.

After Michael Penix, Jr. was a monster favorite last week, JJ McCarthy is now the Heisman favorite and here are your top eight favorites:

JJ McCarthy +220
Michael Penix, Jr. +300
Jayden Daniels +350
Jordan Travis +800
Dillon Gabriel +1200
Bo Nix +1800
Marvin Harrison, Jr. +2500
Carson Beck +3000

Essentially what oddsmakers are telling you is wait until next week when everyone overreacts off one big performance and all these numbers change a ton again.

The Heisman is never won in September or October, it always takes a monster late November game to decide it.

11. SEC Power Rankings 1-14