Clay Travis' Starting 11: CFP Might Not Have Any Undefeated Teams Because Regular Season Has Been So Great
As Ohio State's quarterback, Will Howard, inexplicably slid down to end the game against Oregon and Duck fans came pouring onto the field, it felt like a signature moment for Oregon head coach Dan Lanning.
For college football realignment too.
Whatever your thoughts are on the implosion of the Pac 12, regular season games like this one between powers from different parts of the country are good for college football. Audiences vote with their eyes, and they overwhelmingly want to watch big regular season match ups like this -- and many others played all day on a spectacular Saturday for college football.
This was one of those fantastic Saturdays where the games are so good I actually somewhat regretted going to watch a game.
Because I'd rather be able to just kick my feet up and watch games all day.
As it so happens, I did watch all the early kickoff games, but then headed over to Florida-Tennessee as all the evening games were kicking.
EUGENE, OREGON - OCTOBER 12: Head coach Dan Lanning of the Oregon Ducks reacts after the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Autzen Stadium on October 12, 2024 in Eugene, Oregon. The Oregon Ducks won 32-31. (Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images)
I suspect the audience for Ohio State-Oregon, Ole Miss-LSU, and even the late game of Kansas State-Colorado will be massive and if that's true it will continue the trend of ratings records college football has been setting this year.
The sport, even among the chaos of NIL and transfer portal insanity, has never been more popular with fans.
As a result of NIL and the transfer portal , whether we like it or not, college football has become more like the NFL, where parity means anything can happen on any given weekend. That's going to be a big change for many college football fans who have gotten used to the idea that the best teams never lose.
No longer.
In fact, it's not crazy to project every team in the college football playoff this year could have one or more losses.
We'll discuss that more in a moment, but in the meantime, let's dive into the Starting 11.
1. Oregon's big win likely puts the Ducks into the playoff -- and maybe the Big Ten title game.
That may sound overly reactive, but the Duck schedule is very manageable from this point forward.
Here's the remaining six games: at Purdue, Illinois, at Michigan, Maryland, at Wisconsin, Washington.
Oregon figures to be touchdown plus favorites over all these teams and while I said above it wasn't crazy to think there would be no undefeated teams in the playoff, the Ducks look poised for 12-0 in the regular season.
Or 11-1 at worst.
Essentially, this win stamped their ticket, in many ways, for the playoff.
As for Ohio State, the Buckeyes toughest remaining game is at Penn State.
Win that one and a playoff berth is almost assured, but one bit of nervousness for Buckeye fans, if Ohio State loses to Penn State too, misses the Big Ten title game, and finishes 10-2, what would they have done that's impressive in the regular season? A 10-2 Ohio State team might be a 10 or 11 seed, headed on the road against a really strong opponent.
I still think 10-2 gets you in so unless the Buckeyes drop one to Nebraska, Indiana or Michigan, they'd probably still be okay with a 10-2 mark for the playoff, but giving up nearly 500 yards of total offense at Autzen should have Buckeye faithful a bit concerned.
Toss in Ryan Day's continued issues in the biggest games on the schedule and there's reason for concern but not panic.
2. Texas is the only team in the SEC that hasn't played poorly at some point in the season so far.
The Longhorns, not coincidentally, are also the only undefeated team left in the SEC.
It was close for a short period of time before Texas just ran away with the rivalry game against Oklahoma.
Now the Longhorns get Georgia in Austin next weekend with a chance to go a long way towards putting themselves into the SEC title game. Beat Georgia, and make no mistake, that will be no easy task, and Texas would be a playoff team. Because while there are some landmines left on the schedule -- at Vandy?, at Arkansas and at Texas A&M -- it's hard to see how the Longhorns wouldn't be 10=2 at wros and in the playoff.
DALLAS, TEXAS - OCTOBER 12: Quinn Ewers #3 of the Texas Longhorns celebrates after throwing a pass for a touchdown during the second quarter against the Oklahoma Sooners at Cotton Bowl Stadium on October 12, 2024 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images)
But beating Georgia just feels too clean to me in what has been a really messy SEC schedule already.
Yes, Texas is a three point favorite and Georgia gave up 31 points to Mississippi State yesterday, but the Bulldogs will be ready, I think, come Saturday.
And those road games at Arkansas and at Texas A&M don't look as easy as they did in September. To say nothing of Vanderbilt, which has way back-to-back SEC games as double digit underdogs.
As for Georgia, the Bulldogs still have at Texas, at Ole Miss, Tennessee and Georgia Tech on the schedule.
And that's not even counting the Cocktail Party against Florida.
3. Penn State's overtime win against USC was huge for the Nittany Lions.
First, because it makes Penn State highly likely to make the playoff, second because it gives the Nittany Lions a chance to punch a ticket to the Big Ten title game, probably, with a win over Ohio State on November 2nd in Happy Valley.
James Franklin's squad has struggled against the Buckeyes -- who hasn't? -- during his tenure at Penn State, but that November 2nd game against Ohio State has the potential to be the biggest of his tenure at Penn State.
The comeback win was sweet, especially given Drew Allar's ability to bounce back from three turnovers and now you get a chance to knock Ohio State out of the Big Ten title game in three weeks.
That game just can't get any bigger.
As for USC, Lincoln Riley is now 5-8 in his last 13 games and the Trojans have fallen to 3-3 on the season.
Boy, things sure have have deteriorated in a hurry since that opening week victory over LSU.
With six games to go, the Trojans are staring down the barrel of 7-5 and if that happens what changes will Riley make this offseason?
It's fair to say he's been a huge disappointment so far with USC and what sign is there that things are moving forward in a positive way in year three?
4. Ole Miss couldn't put LSU away and as a result, the Rebels have to win out going forward to have a playoff shot.
Yes, winning at LSU at night is difficult, but this loss actually makes the Kentucky loss at home in Oxford sting even more. Especially since Kentucky just lost to Vanderbilt at home. The Wildcats only win in the SEC now is at Ole Miss. That was a really bad loss for Ole Miss and it looks even worse two weeks later.
If Ole Miss had beaten Kentucky, Rebel fans could legitimately tell themselves they were still in decent shape for their first ever potential trip to Atlanta for the SEC title game. Now Atlanta feels highly unlikely and the Rebs will have to win out, including a road win at Arkansas and Georgia in Oxford -- to get to 10-2 and make their case for the playoff.
And it was so achingly close to a win.
BATON ROUGE, LOUISIANA - OCTOBER 12: Bradyn Swinson #4 and Whit Weeks #40 of the LSU Tigers sack Jackson Dart #2 of the Ole Miss Rebels during the first half against the Ole Miss Rebels at Tiger Stadium on October 12, 2024 in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. (Photo by Gus Stark/LSU/University Images via Getty Images}
Credit to LSU for finding a way to get the OT win, but after defending their home field the Tigers now have games at Arkansas and at Texas A&M -- I think they will lose at least one of these games -- before Alabama comes to Baton Rouge on November 9th.
But go 2-1 in those three games and the Bayou Bengals have a decent shot to finish 7-1 in the SEC, which could potentially punch a ticket to Atlanta for them.
It's worth mentioning, USC left Las Vegas on cloud nine after their early season win and the Tigers were crushed with LSU fans furious with Brian Kelly, now their situations are completely flipped.
5. Alabama has played one good half of SEC football all year.
Granted it was a beat down against Georgia in the first half in Bryant-Denny, but if Vanderbilt were a true all systems meltdown failure, that is, just a really bad performance by a very good team, I would have expected the Tide to crush South Carolina yesterday back home in Tuscaloosa.
Instead South Carolina played Alabama even throughout and you can even make the argument that Bama was fortunate to win this game.
South Carolina had more total yards, more first downs, and ran and passed for more yards too.
Heck, the Gamecocks almost won on the road despite having four turnovers.
The Tide don't look like a playoff team -- or SEC title contender -- right now and with road games still to come at Tennessee, LSU, and at Oklahoma -- does this look like a team that's going to be 10-2 or better to put itself in the playoff mix?
Honestly, I think both Tennessee and Alabama fans are nervous about what might happen next weekend.
Both teams are 5-1, but both are a very wobbly 5-1.
Jalen Milroe, in particular, looks gimpy on his leg -- late in the game he appeared to be running nowhere near full speed -- and the Gamecocks did a great job taking wide receiver Ryan Williams out of the Tide game plan. As a result, Alabama had to lean on Milroe's legs even more than usual.
If you have the defensive talent to match up with Williams and mirror Milroe, Alabama's offense isn't particularly dynamic.
As for the defense, they're downright bad at times.
Kalen DeBoer avoided disaster by narrowly beating South Carolina after losing to Vanderbilt, but unfortunately the Tide proved the Vandy loss wasn't a fluke, this just isn't a very good football team right now.
6. Nico is playing like a freshman for Tennessee and the Vols offense has disappeared.
If you'd told me Tennessee would go scoreless for back to back first halves of SEC games against Arkansas and Florida after the road win at Oklahoma that made the Vols 4-0, I would have called you crazy. (Or maybe thought Nico would be knocked out with injury).
But after having watched the Florida-Tennessee game in person last night, I really don't think it's complicated, Nico just missed a ton of open throws for a second straight week. The receivers are there, often running open, and he either doesn't see them or makes an inaccurate throw as a result. The same thing happened against Arkansas too. Now he hasn't been helped by his offensive line either, but teams have seen that Dylan Sampson is a real threat running the football and they are trying to take him away and dare Nico to beat them throwing the football.
So far he hasn't done it.
KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE - OCTOBER 12: Nico Iamaleava #8 of the Tennessee Volunteers plays against the Florida Gators during their game at Neyland Stadium on October 12, 2024 in Knoxville, Tennessee. (Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)
Josh Heupel's offense requires speed and precision, one good play often leads to three or four more in rapid succession. But if you don't have success, it can get bogged down in a hurry. And right now the offense is completely bogged down.
Earlier in the year, I used Cam Newton in 2010 as a potential Nico comparison, but unlike Cam in 2010, Nico has regressed the past two weeks in conference play. I thought that potentially playing back at home might help quite a bit, but a fumble on the first drive -- the second best drive, honestly that Tennessee had all day -- seemed to throw Nico off and he threw a bad interception, missed at least two wide open deep balls, and just generally muddled his way through the entire game.
As for the Gators, I have no idea why Billy Napier didn't go for two and the win after the big touchdown pass on third and long with under thirty seconds to play.
They lined up to try and trick Tennessee -- and force the use of a timeout -- but with a freshman quarterback who has mostly not made plays all day, a road environment, and a team that had struggled for the most part on offense for most of the second half, how do you not go for the win?
The Gators were more competitive than most expected and gave themselves a chance to win, but I thought they missed their best chance for a win by taking it to overtime instead of going for two.
In fact, I'm still shocked he didn't go for it.
Especially since the way they ran that final drive it was like they were trying to run the clock out.
7. Vanderbilt won as a two touchdown underdog at Kentucky, suggesting the Commodores are more than just a one week story.
Diego Pavia idolizes Johnny Manziel and plays a bit like him too.
This Commodore team is fun to watch.
Vandy should beat Ball State to run their record to 5-2 and then they get Texas in Nashville coming off the Georgia battle.
LEXINGTON, KENTUCKY - OCTOBER 12: Diego Pavia #2 of the Vanderbilt Commodores throws a touchdown pass against the Kentucky Wildcats at Kroger Field on October 12, 2024 in Lexington, Kentucky. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
It's probably too early to put Texas on upset alert, but Vanderbilt is going to be a bowl team and they aren't a guaranteed win on the schedule like they have been in the past.
Can you imagine if Vanderbilt gave another number one team a run in Nashville?
Look out Texas, Vandy is waiting for you!
8. The Big 12 title race is going to be a wild one.
There are three 3-0 in-conference teams -- Iowa State, BYU, and Texas Tech -- and then five more teams tied at 2-1. The tiebreak scenarios in these title games could end up getting pretty wild given that many teams don't play each other head-to-head now.
For now I have BYU as my projected Big 12 champ, but you could predict five or more teams here and it wouldn't be outrageous.
9. Army and Navy are both undefeated at 6-0 and ranked in the same AP poll for the first time since 1960.
Good for them, this is awesome to see.
But, and this is kind of fascinating, could Army and Navy be benefiting from the transfer portal and NIL since they don't get many transfers? As a result is it easier to build stability there than anywhere else in college football?
It's worth discussing.
PHILADELPHIA, PA - DECEMBER 08: Army prepares to snap the ball against Navy during the Army-Navy game on December 8, 2018, at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia,PA.(Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Regardless, you want a crazy scenario?
Army and Navy could play in the American Athletic Conference title game on December 7th, the week before they play in the Army-Navy game on December 14th.
So they'd play in back-to-back weeks while both teams could be in the mix for a playoff berth.
Can you imagine that chaos?
10. My Outkick National Top Ten
The bottom of this top ten is a mess.
After a week's reflection, I think I over ranked teams last week that were undefeated and under ranked teams with good wins. So I'm trying to balance that out more this week.
Right now I have Notre Dame just outside my top ten at 11.
I think I was too generous last week in ranking the Fighting Irish in my top ten despite a home loss to Northern Illinois. The reason I put them there was the win over A&M, but with LSU's big win over Ole Miss, I'm dropping Notre Dame back.
Yes, this means Notre Dame is ranked below a team they beat, but their loss is truly the worst of the season by any team so I think it more than cancels out the road win in Aggieland. At least for purposes of putting the Irish in my top ten, again I have them at 11, not too far back.
I also may be too bullish on Alabama at this point, but the Georgia win makes them hard not to rank highly.
1. Texas
2. Oregon
3. Ohio State
4. Georgia
5. Penn State
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. Clemson
9. Texas A&M
10. LSU
My Outkick Playoff 12
Remember that the top four spots have to go to conference champions. So the top four teams here are my projections for who will win.
1. Texas (SEC Champion)
2. Oregon (Big Ten Champion)
3. Clemson (ACC Champion)
4. BYU (Big 12 Champion)
5. Ohio State
6. Georgia
7. Penn State
8. Miami
9. Alabama
10. Texas A&M
11. LSU
12. Boise State
11. SEC power rankings 1-16
Texas is the only undefeated team, there are six teams with one loss, and already nine teams have lost two or more games.
As a result, I feel a bit more comfortable with this week's rankings than last week's. Things are sorting themselves out quite a bit.
1. Texas
2. Georgia
3. Alabama
4. Texas A&M
5. LSU
6. Tennessee
7. Missouri
8. Vanderbilt
9. Ole Miss
10. Arkansas
11. Oklahoma
12. South Carolina
13. Kentucky
14. Auburn
15. Florida
16. Mississippi State