Clay Travis' Starting 11: Alabama's On The Decline Edition
Ten years ago, after Alabama lost to Ole Miss in a six turnover game at home, I pronounced the Alabama dynasty over.
My son, the Alabama fan, found this video several years ago, now posted into an Alabama fan video collage of media haters, and he occasionally pulls it up to play to make fun of how dumb I am.
Ah, the joys of fatherhood.
(All three of my boys also have my high school yearbook photo, the one with what they have described as my "pyramid haircut" as the screensaver on their iPads too. So if you wondered who was the least respected and most mocked member of the Travis household, it's me, by a large measure.)
Here, by the way, was my eight year old quizzing me on college football games yesterday.
So I open today's Starting 11 with that background in place, I've been wrong before about Alabama's dynasty ending and my own kids have ridiculed me for being wrong about that prediction.
But it definitely feels like things have changed in Tuscaloosa.
Sports dynasty's don't typically end with one grand defeat -- an epic collapse on a grand stage -- they usually just gradually decline, a block is missed, a would-be touchdown is overthrown, the defense isn't all on the same page, the myriad travails that occur on a football field on every gameday. Over time, put simply, the dynastic team simply stops making as many good and great plays as it did before. And the fewer good and great plays, the lower the ceiling of the team, and, eventually, the more teams can compete with the elite.
In retrospect we like to go back and point to one game as the moment we all know, but generally that's not occuring in real time, in real time the decline can be slight and hard to measure.
We saw this last year. Yes, Alabama lost two games, at Tennessee and at LSU, but less discussed was the fact that the Tide could and maybe should, have lost to Texas and Texas A&M too. Alabama actually went 2-2 in games decided on the final plays. I don't remember the last time a Nick Saban coached team had four end of game plays that could have led to losses. Yes, Alabama could have won all four of these games, but they could have easily lost them too.
A team's downfall usually is evident by how many close games it plays against a variety of other teams. Excellence, especially in college football, is destructive. Opponents are vanquished with ease, margin of victory is a testament to this. Slowly, over time, Alabama's margins have been getting squeezed.
I've felt that for the past two years Bryce Young, who I think we will all come to see was, even as heralded as he was, woefully underrated as a college quarterback, papered over a lot of offensive deficiencies for the Tide last year. Last year in Tennessee, Young was simply otherworldly to keep Alabama in that game. A normal college quarterback would have lost that game by 20+. Bryce Young nearly won it for the Tide. And this is also how dynasties die, we've seen it with Clemson of late, sometimes in college football you have such an elite quarterback, Deshaun Watson, Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young, that the slippage in other areas isn't as noticeable as it otherwise would have been. One transcendent player at the quarterback position can help to erase a lot of mistakes.
I know, I know, Texas Longhorn fans are screaming why am I not writing about them and, trust me, that's coming in a moment. But for me last night was about Alabama's return, at least for now, to the ranks to the merely good, not great as much as it was about the Longhorn win. The Tide are 8-3 in their past 11 games. Yes, Alabama may benefit from the fact that the LSU's, Auburn's and Texas A&M's, their usual rivals in the SEC West, may not be that great as well, but when I watched Alabama last night, for the first time in nearly two decades, the Tide didn't have the look of a national title contender.
Maybe I will be wrong, like I was a decade ago, and the Tide will come roaring back and win every game the rest of the season and be sitting at 12-1 in the playoff and my 12 year old will taunt me about it every week along the way.
Did Texas Longhorns just end the Alabama Crimson Tide dynasty? (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images).
But you know who else agrees with me for the first time, maybe, in the entire Nick Saban era?
Las Vegas oddsmakers, this morning Alabama is 33-1 to win the national title, the worst number for the Tide in September, that I can recall, since the second year of the Nick Saban era. That's ninth in the country.
At a minimum, I think the nation's longest streak of dominance, maybe in all of sports, is likely ending. For my money, this may be the most remarkable stat of sports in my life. During the 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 seasons Alabama was ranked number one at some point in the season. That's 15 straight years. I don't believe anyone reading this column will ever see a run of dominance like that in any sport for the rest of our lives.
Is the dynasty over in Tuscaloosa?
Yes, it certainly feels like it is this morning.
But, ask my Bama fan son, he already told me I was an idiot for writing this opening today. So at least he doesn't believe it.
1. Okay, let's talk about the Longhorns.
Leaving aside the six turnover win Ole Miss posted in Tuscaloosa with Bo Wallace as quarterback, if you're going into Bryant-Denny and emerging with a win during the past 15 year reign of dominance, you have to have a Heisman trophy caliber quarterback.
Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel, Joe Burrow, these were dudes who all won at Alabama and went on to win the Heisman trophy. Two of the three went on to win national titles too.
That's the level of talent it has required over the past 15 or so years to win at Bama.
I was fortunate enough to see the Cam and Burrow wins in Bryant-Denny, those were otherworldly performances that befitted Heismans and national titles. The Johnny win at Bama won him the Heisman and made him a legend.
Now, to be fair, all of these wins were later in the year, those Auburn, LSU and Texas A&M teams had already been very tested. This year's Texas team is just getting started. But Quinn Ewers was pretty phenomenal last night -- 24 completions, 349 yards and three big touchdown passes. It remains to be seen whether he can elevate his play all season like Cam, Burrow and Manziel did. (Remember if that A&M team had been able to make the playoff, by the way, they might have won it. No one was playing better at the end of the year than the Aggies were.)
For my money, the biggest moment in the game came right after Jalen Milroe dropped a 49 yard touchdown pass. Suddenly, after trailing all game Alabama took the lead to end the third quarter. This is where we'd seen the Tide strangle so many top opponents, by exerting their excellence during the game's crucible moments. But Texas answered with an immediate one minute touchdown drive, an absolute clinic. Then a turnover, another TD to put Texas up double digits, and then a final TD with 8:23 left, a beautiful 39 yard drime and it was truly over.
Texas was back!
I think.
Here's the deal, Texas only has two top 25 teams remaining on its schedule: Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout and Kansas State in Austin. None of the road games look particularly tough. The Longhorns, should, and I stress should, be favored to make the playoff at this point.
And Vegas nearly agrees with me, the Longhorns are tied for fourth most likely to win the title right now.
2. Okay, back to Alabama.
I know I said the dynasty feels dead to me, but with LSU and Tennessee both coming to Tuscaloosa -- and neither looking, in my opinion, good enough to win on the road at Bryant-Denny -- who looks that tough on this Tide schedule? Bama plays at Mississippi State, at Kentucky, and at Auburn. None of these teams look stellar, even if all are currently undefeated. The toughest road game by far on Alabama's schedule appears likely to be at Texas A&M.
And the Aggies just got absolutely smoked at Miami.
Jimbo Fisher is back on the hot seat after barely leaving it at all.
My point is, the Tide looks to be favored, still, in every game remaining. And while Alabama may be down from their historical standards, which I think it's fair to say they are, there's nothing particularly daunting about this particular SEC schedule.
That means Bama could still play itself back into the playoff mix, especially if Texas keeps winning.
The Tide have a new, young quarterback in Milroe, would it really stun anyone if he's a totally different player in November than he is now?
Having said that, put me down for 9-3 for the Tide this year.
3. Here's the current top ten Vegas title odds:
What strikes me here is how spread out the odds are after Georgia and Michigan. I don't remember seeing numbers this wide open in a long time. That means, buckle up, I think we're in for a wild ride this season.
1. Georgia +230
2. Michigan +460
3. Ohio State 10-1
4. FSU 11-1
4. Texas 11-1
6. USC 16-1
7. Penn State 16-1
8. Notre Dame 22-1
9. Alabama 33-1
10. Oregon 40-1
10. Washington 40-1
10. Tennessee 40-1
4. What's up with the SEC?
Y'all know I love SEC football.
In fact, SEC football is probably my favorite thing on the planet outside of my family.
If you told me I only had one day left to live, I'd probably want to spend it on an SEC campus with my family at a monster game.
But I'm also honest, and the honest truth is this, the SEC looks awful so far this year.
Texas A&M lost to Miami in yet another example of the SEC conferencing being down this fall. (Photo by Samuel Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images).
Half the conference has already lost a game and we just finished with week two. And it's not just the losses, it's that the SEC has lost, arguably, the five biggest non-conference games played so far this year. That never happens.
Texas beat Alabama, Florida State beat LSU, Miami beat Texas A&M, Utah beat Florida, and North Carolina beat South Carolina in power five match ups. Sure, Mississippi State beat Arizona, Auburn beat California, Tennessee beat Virginia and Ole Miss beat Tulane, but the significance of the losses far exceed the quality of the wins right now.
And that hasn't happened in like twenty years.
Generally speaking the SEC racks up major out of conference wins early in the season and then these wins are used as major bonus points when it comes to doling out college football playoff berths at the end of the year, especially for one loss teams. Now you've got a ton of SEC teams that will knock each other out of playoff contention before September is even over.
So what's going on here?
I think the SEC is weaker at the top than it might have been in twenty years. The results speak for themselves. If these games had been decided on last second field goals, I might feel differently, but Texas, Florida State, Miami, Utah and North Carolina didn't all just beat five SEC schools, they beat all five schools by double digits.
Now it's certainly possible that Tennessee and maybe one of the SEC West schools could be better than expected and cycling up. The Tennessee game at Florida, where the Vols have opened -8.5 is a good early test of this as I'll discuss below, but I think what's more likely is the rest of college football, maybe partly thanks to NIL, is starting to bring in better quality talent than they have in the past.
Hell, you can maybe even argue that paying players has become so above board, that the SEC doesn't have the same advantage it did in the past when, ahem, it might have been the case that occasionally a young scholar athlete might have gotten a bit of cash for his gridiron talents.
5. Explain Texas A&M, Clay.
Honestly, I can't.
I just can't.
Giving up 48 points at Miami wasn't anywhere in my expected outcome list. Sure, the three turnovers didn't help, but after building the Aggies up to top five in the nation back in 2020, A&M has just collapsed. And they've done it while recruiting at an absolutely elite level. The quality of player A&M has brought up, honestly, shouldn't be capable of this level of performance.
In the covid year Jimbo got A&M to 9-1 and, I think, what should have been a playoff berth. Everything seemed poised for take off right then and there.
And then the Aggies...just didn't take off. Worse than that, the plane caught on fire and everyone bailed before the plane could even take off.
A&M went 8-4 in 2021 and then 5-7 in 2022, 6-10 in the SEC after 8-1 in the SEC in the covid year.
And now it isn't just that Jimbo is floundering, it's that the Longhorns are entering the SEC and they may well be doing so at the absolute peak of Longhorn excellence.
Which puts even more pressure on Jimbo.
Because everyone in college football knows that it's not just how you are doing, it's how are you doing relative to your hated rivals? Jimbo has to beat Auburn and Arkansas and be 4-1 with Alabama coming to Aggieland on October 7th. Bama feels like Jimbo's circle the wagons game, he almost has to win this one. Lose and the Aggies are, at best, 4-2 with at Tennessee, at Ole Miss and at LSU still on the schedule. 2-1, honestly, feels like the absolute ceiling on those three and 0-3 isn't out of the question.
Right now the Aggies feel a bit like a dam that's sprung a leak, just when you think you've plugged one hole, another one emerges.
That's not good, especially not when you're coming off your $9 million a year head coach going 5-7 in year five of his tenure. That's not supposed to happen, especially not with these last several recruiting classes coming of age now.
I'd bet on Texas A&M going 8-4 this year and that doesn't feel like good enough to put Jimbo in a good spot after six years at the helm in Aggieland.
6. It looks like Texas and Florida State are back, is Miami back too?
Let's not understate it, this was a huge win for the Hurricanes and Mario Cristobal.
Not only for this win, but for how it sets up going forward. You get Bethune -- did Bethune-Cookman fire Cookman, is this a new school? I have no idea --, Temple, and then Georgia Tech. That means the Canes should be 5-0. You follow that up with at North Carolina, which will be a major battle, then Clemson and Virginia come to Miami. The Canes could very well enter November at 7-1 or 8-0. That's not crazy at all. If they do, they head to N.C. State and FSU on back-to-back trips with a chance at the ACC title game.
And it's even possible we could get an epic, 1990's style, Miami vs. Florida State undefeated in Tallahassee game.
Holy hell, that would be incredible.
Florida State seems like a legit ACC title contender. (Photo by John Korduner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
7. I know we don't usually write about lawsuits in the Starting 11 -- in fact, I'm not sure we ever have before, maybe, possibly with Jameis Winston back in the day.
But this Washington State and Oregon State lawsuit against the Pac 12 has blockbuster written all over it.
Yes, USC looks great and so does Colorado and, frankly, the entire Pac 12 has been stellar this year, but this lawsuit may be a bigger story than anything happening on the field.
We're just in the opening stages here, but someone explain to me why WSU and OSU wouldn't potentially have a bevy of legal claims against their former compatriots in the Pac 12 and, and this is significant, no incentive whatsoever to play nice. WSU and OSU have been screwed, they should be out for blood. You've have (alleged) contract breaches, tortious interference claims, can you imagine the crazy discovery out there as every school scrambled for new destinations? The ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 are all involved, Fox and ESPN are involved, I mean it's the sexiest potential lawsuit ever if you like conference realignment and love college sports.
It's likely dirty as hell.
And sexy as hell too.
Call me crazy, but I think OSU and WSU could get tens of millions in damages here, maybe in settlements if they keep this case rolling.
Maybe the remaining schools in the Pac-12 Conference can or should take legal action. (Photo by Jeff Speer/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
And can you imagine if you got this case in front of a freaking jury in a college town like Pullman or Corvallis? Can you imagine if the jury got a chance to obliterate their hated rival schools who all jilted their former conference mates and kicked them to the curb? If hell hath no fury like a woman scorned, what about conference schools left behind? What ranks higher on the hell hath no fury scale than this?
I'm surprised more people aren't talking about this.
This could be a major risk of loss for all these schools bailing on the Pac 12.
Especially since some of these schools aren't getting full payment on media packages for years and are going to have major budget issues, potentially, going forward. And then they get hit for massive costs on the exit too?
This lawsuit isn't going away quickly.
And if you're a college or law school kid reading this right now and you're interested in a sports law paper or note to write, this is a gold mine for you. I'd be reading every pleading in this case if I were interested at all in the practice of sports law.
8. Is Tennessee ready to take the next step under Josh Heupel and establish itself as a top ten caliber program for the next several years?
We know FSU and Texas are back this year based on the wins they've already posted.
And last year Tennessee proved, in many ways, they were back with an 11-2 record and wins against Florida, LSU, Alabama, and Clemson in the same year. But there was that concerning performance at South Carolina and then yesterday Tennessee may have posted the worst performance in two years under Josh Heupel, a very underwhelming showing against an undermanned Austin Peay squad that was nearly a fifty point underdog. Tennessee won by just 17 and only posted 30 points in the process. What's more, there have been limited passing strikes down the field and the pace on offense hasn't been very fast at all.
So what's going on here? Are the Vols playing a bit of possum for the Gators or is there a big drop off in offensive execution from Hendon Hooker to Joe Milton?
I think we will find out a ton on Saturday in Gainesville.
The Gators have a chance to redeem themselves after a poor performance at Utah and with games still on the schedule against LSU, Tennessee, Georgia and Florida State things aren't going to get any easier, if they are going to win one against a top opponent, this may be their best chance.
Tennessee is an 8.5 point favorite at Florida, the biggest favorite Tennessee has been over Florida since the SEC East and West began play back in 1992 and the biggest favorite the Vols have ever been in the Swamp.
Win and Tennessee should be 5-0 with Texas A&M coming to town on October 14th.
Lose and many will ask how much was Hendon Hooker elevating the Vols?
As I mentioned last week, Tennessee hasn't been 5-0 in back-to-back years in my lifetime. Beat Florida and UTSA, South Carolina and Texas A&M all come to Knoxville. Then would be Alabama. The goal, as I said last week, is to make that Georgia game in Knoxville on November 18th for the SEC East title. That probably means the Vols have to win in Gainesville, something they have done rarely in the divisional play years.
Can that happen and can Tennessee help to assuage the early struggles of the SEC by elevating itself back to storied program status? We'll get an early read in Florida.
Tennessee has an early season test in Florida next weekend. (Photo by Bryan Lynn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images).
Remember, as bad as the SEC has looked, if Tennessee keeps winning then the Vols could find themselves in the playoff mix alongside Georgia, who I don't think anyone expects to lose.
As for the Gators, Billy Napier can go a LONG way towards silencing the criticism with a win over a top ten Tennessee team as a substantial underdog.
But if he loses, look out, the Gators will be chomping after their own coach.
9. How about Deion?!
Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes are the biggest story in college football so far this year.
They're one of only a handful of teams with two power five conference wins so far this season and with Colorado State coming to town for a big rivalry game, Colorado should be 3-0 headed to Oregon for a seismic Pac 12 showdown.
Then USC heads to Boulder the week after.
Leave it to the Pac 12 to have its best season ever, potentially, in its final season ever.
In the meantime, I was wrong on my pick of Nebraska.
So I took the haircut, literally, on the gambling loss.
10. OutKick's National Top Ten
Reminder, I rank teams entirely based on what we have seen on the field. Not what I expected to see on the field in the pre-season. So these teams are ranked based on the two -- or three in the case of USC -- games that we have seen played so far. This means that during the month of September my rankings will swing quite a bit from week to week.
With that in my mind, here's the OutKick top ten. You'll note that everybody in this top ten has at least one quality win so far this season:
1. FSU
2. Texas
3. Colorado
4. Miami
5. USC
6. Duke
7. North Carolina
8. Utah
9. Oregon
10. Ole Miss
USC and quarterback Caleb Williams are firmly within the OutKick top ten. (Wally Skalij/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images).
11. SEC Power Rankings 1-14
Here's the method to the madness right now, the SEC, as I discussed above is a real mess and hasn't been very impressive so far this year.
I have the four undefeated teams who have beaten a power five conference team ranked at the top -- these are, in theory, the "best" wins in conference play. Then I have the undefeated teams followed by the teams that have lost at least one game based on the quality of the loss.
Given that we have zero conference games played so far, these rankings are a mess.
But, to be fair, so is the SEC this year so far.
My SEC power rankings 1-14:
1. Ole Miss
2. Auburn
3. Tennessee
4. Mississippi State
5. Georgia
6. Arkansas
7. Missouri
8. Kentucky
9. Alabama
10. LSU
11. Texas A&M
12. Florida
13. South Carolina
14. Vanderbilt