Clay Travis' Starting 11: The 12 Team Playoff Is Close to Complete Edition
What an incredible Friday and Saturday of college football we all got to enjoy. (Thursday too if you watched Memphis-Tulane).
I hate to say I told you so, but for all the people who claimed a 12 team college football playoff would detract from the regular season – I bet all of you were locked in on your couches watching every game take place just like my family was.
We saw an eight-overtime thriller between Georgia and Georgia Tech on Friday, Michigan notch one of the biggest upsets of the season at Ohio State, constant drama on Saturday as teams tried to lock in their playoff spots and other teams tried to angle opportunities to steal them away.
It was absolutely phenomenal gridiron action.
In fact, here's an early prediction: I bet the ratings for the games played on Friday and Saturday will be higher than any ratings for any college football games ever played on Thanksgiving weekend.
That's because so many games had so much more at stake.
As we prepare for conference championship weekend, it feels to me like we have 11 spots taken. I'll break this down more in detail below, but the Big Ten has four: Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana. The SEC has three: Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee. Notre Dame is in, the Big 12 champ is in, the ACC champ is in, and Boise State or UNLV are in. That adds up to 11 teams. So who gets the 12th spot? If Clemson beats SMU, I think it's a three-way battle – SMU, Miami or Alabama. If SMU beats Alabama, I think it comes down to Miami or Alabama.
Yes, there are four 9-3 SEC teams, but I suspect Alabama, given the head-to-head win over South Carolina, and the fact that the Gamecocks lost to Alabama and Ole Miss head to head, is going to make it hard for anyone else to be picked from the SEC.
But that feels like the final playoff argument to me.
With that in mind, let's hit the Starting 11.
1. College football's overtime is thrilling, but absurd
Which, honestly, is the perfect sentence to describe college football itself.
Going for two beginning in the third overtime manages to make penalty kicks in soccer seem fair, if for no other reason than at least there are five penalty kicks on each side. Think about how arbitrary your average play outcome can be. Now imagine designing a system that relies on a single two-point play to determine the outcome.
It's completely bonkers.
But somehow also perfect for college football.
I'm still stunned that Georgia Tech didn't go for two and the win when they scored at the end of the first overtime.
If I'm the road team and the home team has the momentum late, not to mention the raucous home crowd advantage, why not run your best two-point play and go for the win outright there?
But are dueling two-point conversion attempts phenomenal television?
Of course they are.
ATHENS, GA - NOVEMBER 29: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets running back Jamal Haynes #11 and Georgia Bulldogs linebacker CJ Allen #3 eye the football during the Friday evening college football game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on November 29, 2024 on Dooley Field at Sanford Stadium in Athens, Georgia. (Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
You can barely breathe for the entire overtime period. The swings in momentum, the pangs of emotion visible on fan, player and coach TV shots, the nervous scanning of the field for flags or the outraged squeals of indignation when you feel a flag is justified, but don't get one, it's riveting TV.
It's high drama, improbable in its excess, insane in its application, and yet, somehow, absolutely perfect for college football too.
Never has that been clearer than during the infinitely entertaining and captivating eight overtime game between Georgia and Georgia Tech that featured 12 different two-point plays, several of which, if converted, would have won the game for either Georgia or Georgia Tech.
The Bulldogs survived for the win, but the lasting image of the game may well be Kirby Smart and Brent Key hugging during the longest post-game chat I've ever seen between two coaches.
It felt like neither coach had anything left either.
What a game.
The end result is that Georgia punched its playoff ticket while simultaneously establishing for everyone to see that there isn't actually any dominant team in college football this season and that truly anything might happen in the playoff this year.
Speaking of which...
2. Ohio State lost to Michigan for a fourth straight year
Meaning Ryan Day has the potential to be the first coach to make the playoff and get fired in the same season.
At this point Buckeye fans are over Ryan Day and his failures in "big" games. Partly, this is unfair. Because the definition of a "big game" is whichever game Day happens to lose. Day already won two "big games" this year at Penn State and against undefeated Indiana. If Day had lost either of these games, they would have been evidence of his big game failures, but since he won them, they somehow don't count as big games and the measuring stick moves to the games he loses, not the games he wins.
COLUMBUS, OH - NOVEMBER 30: Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day stands with his players before the game against the Michigan Wolverines and the Ohio State Buckeyes on November 30, 2024, at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Having said that, Michigan is THE game for Ohio State, it's the measuring stick, the biggest game by far on the schedule.
Heck, Wolverine fans were ready to fire Jim Harbaugh for not winning this game early in his tenure and now Ohio State fans feel the same way about Ryan Day.
That's what four straight losses to a top rival will do, but especially this loss to this Michigan team. The Buckeyes were three touchdown favorites at home against a 6-5 Michigan team without their two top players. It's a sports cliché that in rivalry games you can throw the record books out, but to get outphysicaled by Michigan like this – to allow them to run 42 times for 172 yards and only post 77 rushing yards on 26 tries yourself – is flat out unacceptable.
It's not just that Ohio State lost this game, it's that Buckeye fans didn't even think it was remotely possible they could lose this game to this Michigan team.
And to have that rushing domination happen when Michigan had basically no downfield passing threat all day – 62 yards passing for Davis Warren with two interceptions – is pretty much inexcusable.
And, as a final indignity, to have all of this happen when you have asked fans to shell out tens of millions of dollars in NIL funds for top players?
It's just tough to see Ryan Day coming back from this.
Especially when this loss torpedoes a Big Ten title game appearance and, potentially, a home playoff game too. (We don't know how far Ohio State will fall, but it feels like they have to drop to the borderline playoff hosting area.)
That's just a tough situation for any fan base, especially one like Ohio State's which expects to compete for national titles and believes it has the talent to do so.
COLUMBUS, OHIO - NOVEMBER 30: Will Howard #18 of the Ohio State Buckeyes carries the ball between Ernest Hausmann #15 and Makari Paige #7 of the Michigan Wolverines during the second quarter at Ohio Stadium on November 30, 2024 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Mowry/Getty Images)
Having said all of this, guess what, Ohio State gets three weeks to regroup and is still one of the most talented teams in college football. Would it really stun anyone if Ohio State is one of the four teams left standing over a month from now?
Finally, there will be oodles of takes on the end of the game fight. My take? It shouldn't happen, but I'm not surprised it happened. You have two teams that hate each other in a gridiron war for sixty minutes, and then we expect the post-game celebration, especially involving flags, to come off without a hitch on the road?
I'm honestly surprised there aren't more flights.
But the image of a slackjawed Day watching the post-game fracas and not doing anything to stop it will further characterize him as someone who isn't able to lead his team to elite levels of performance in their biggest moments.
3. Texas dominated Texas A&M in College Station
I've been critical of the Longhorn resume this season.
But this was a beat down of epic proportions. The Longhorn defense took control of this game and never relinquished it. I was wrong about my prediction in this game, I thought Texas A&M would win a close game buoyed by their incredible home field advantage. Instead, Texas took control early and never reliniquished it.
How?
Via physical domination.
Texas ran the ball 50 times for 240 yards, Texas A&M ran it 34 times for 102 yards.
COLLEGE STATION, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 30: Matthew Golden #2 of the Texas Longhorns celebrates after making a first down during the third quarter against the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field on November 30, 2024 in College Station, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
That's the ball game, folks.
Without a pick six and a blocked punt, Texas would have likely won this game by 20+. So now the Longhorns head to Atlanta to play Georgia for the SEC title and the Aggies finish 8-4 and are left wondering why battered Aggie fan syndrome will never leave.
It really is uncanny.
The Aggies are college sports' ultimate Charlie Brown, always running full speed toward the football knowing that at the last possible moment the ball is getting yanked away.
4. Penn State, improbably, and Oregon are now playing in the Big Ten championship game
You'll recall it was only a few weeks ago that Nittany Lion fans, after losing at home to Ohio State, were arguing their team couldn't win the big game.
Now they've advanced to the biggest game of all and have a decent shot to be the overall number one seed in the playoff.
As for Oregon, the Ducks enter the Big Ten title game as the only undefeated team left in college football, yet most remain unconvinced they are the best team in college football.
Oregon has opened in this game -4.5 against Penn State.
5. South Carolina outlasted Clemson, leaving the Gamecocks at 9-3 on the season
This puts South Carolina in a quad of three loss SEC teams: Ole Miss, Alabama, South Carolina, and Missouri. The problem for the Gamecocks, who may well be playing the best of all these teams? They lost to both Alabama and Ole Miss earlier in the season.
So how much should head-to-head factor in here?
If all you cared about was who is playing better RIGHT NOW, then I think the Gamecocks are the pick.
They've closed out the season stronger than any other 9-3 SEC team.
CLEMSON, SC - NOVEMBER 30: South Carolina Gamecocks Raheim Sanders (5) tries to out run the defensee of Clemson Tigers linebacker Sammy Brown (47) during a college football game between the South Carolina Gamecocks and the Clemson Tigers on November 30, 2024 at Clemson Memorial Stadium in Clemson, S.C. (Photo by John Byrum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
But will that be the choice or will it be total resumes?
If it's total resumes, then Alabama's head-to-head win over South Carolina, plus Tide wins over Georgia and Missouri, gives Bama three top 25 wins to South Carolina's three top 25 wins: Clemson, Texas A&M and Missouri.
The three losses are relatively equal between both teams. For instance, South Carolina beat Oklahoma on the road, who Bama lost to, but Bama beat LSU on the road, who South Carolina lost to at home.
Again, if it's resume analysis, I take Alabama as the best resume, by virtue of the win head to head, but I think the Gamecocks are playing the best right now.
As for Ole Miss, the Rebels also beat South Carolina and Georgia, but lost to three teams: Kentucky, LSU, and Florida, which aren't going to be ranked in the top 25.
Ultimately, the playoff committee can't quit Alabama, which means the Tide, at least right now, appear to be the top 9-3 SEC team.
Although, as you can see below, most of you believe South Carolina is the best team right now.
6. The Big 12 title game will be Arizona State against Iowa State and the non-power five conference team in the playoff will be UNLV or Boise State
Why do I link these two games?
Because the fourth playoff seed will likely be the Big 12 winner or Boise State. (UNLV pulling off the upset would probably struggle to jump the Big 12 champion.)
And whichever team wins the conference title and finishes the highest ranked of the Big 12 or Mountain West teams will get the fourth playoff seed and the bye to the second round.
7. Syracuse provided the chaos today
If Miami beats Syracuse – and the Hurricanes had a 21 point lead to start the game – I think both SMU and Miami would have been in the playoff and there wouldn't be very much drama at all.
Instead, the Orange got a huge home win and Miami is in a tough spot, looking for an at large ACC playoff bid without making the conference title game.
Meanwhile, Clemson, left for dead just a few hours ago with their home loss to South Carolina, is back not just in the ACC title game picture, but potentially with a chance to get a top four seed.
It's truly wild.
8. Josh Heupel and Tennessee took care of business at Vanderbilt, despite falling behind 14-0 early
I don't know how well Nico is going to play in the playoff.
But I do know Nico is a different quarterback since the second half against Alabama.
Tennessee defeats Vanderbilt to clinch a College Football Playoff Spot Via: Trey Wallace
Since that time, Nico has 12 passing touchdowns and only one interception. Has the light come on? It remains to be seen. But if you were trying to make an optimistic case for a team based on a young quarterback who hasn't seen many games suddenly taking the proverbial next step, I think Tennessee is unique among playoff teams in that respect.
But Josh Heupel definitely deserves credit for bringing back a winning attitude to the Vol football program. Heupel has gone 11-2, 9-4, and now 10-2 in the past three years, 30-8 in his past 38 games. For a long time people asked if Texas was back.
The answer is both UT's are back and in the playoff.
9. Okay, who is comfortably in the playoff?
From the Big Ten: Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana.
From the SEC: Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee
From the ACC: the champion
From the Big 12: the champion
The non-power five team: Boise State or UNLV
At Large: Notre Dame, which finished the season 11-1.
That leaves one spot for everyone to fight over. As I laid out above, I think the final decision if Clemson beats SMU and wins the ACC title will come down to SMU, Miami or Alabama. If SMU beats Clemson, then I think the final spot will come down to Miami or Alabama.
Could I be wrong?
Certainly.
This playoff committee has been tough to predict.
But if you look at their rankings coming into this week, that feels like the decision they've left for themselves.
We have an entire week to debate all this, but what do the national title odds look like after all the chaos of the final week of the regular season?
- Oregon +350
- Texas +420
- Georgia +450
- Ohio State +450
- Notre Dame 10-1
- Penn State 10-1
- Tennessee 16-1
Based on the odds, the seven teams above are comfortably in the playoff and the odds reflect that to be true.
SYRACUSE, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 30: Jackson Meeks #7 of the Syracuse Orange catches a pass for a touchdown during the second quarter against the Miami Hurricanes at JMA Wireless Dome on November 30, 2024 in Syracuse, New York. (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
But then things get interesting from there.
- Alabama 23-1
- SMU 31-1
- Indiana 40-1
- Clemson 45-1
- South Carolina 60-1
- Arizona State 80-1
- Boise State 100-1
- Iowa State 130-1
- UNLV 250-1
- Miami 350-1
- Ole Miss 800-1
Some of these teams above will make the playoff, but Vegas isn't sold on their talent.
But look at Alabama.
Alabama wouldn't be this much better odds of the other playoff contenders if Vegas didn't think the Tide were making the playoff.
In fact, based on these odds, the final team selection isn't coming down to Miami or Alabama, it's coming down to Alabama or South Carolina.
10. My playoff 12 with the title game outcomes still to determine final seedings and final teams
- Oregon (Big Ten Champion)
- Georgia (SEC Champion)
- SMU (ACC Champion)
- Boise State (non power 5 champion)
- Penn State
- Texas
- Notre Dame
- Tennessee
- Ohio State
- Indiana
- Alabama
- Arizona State (Big 12 Champion)
I have Penn State and Texas not being severely penalized for making the SEC and Big Ten title games and losing, which seems fair. You shouldn't be able to advance in seeding while not playing in a conference title game. The biggest battle to me on home field comes down to Tennessee vs. Ohio State. I'm giving Tennessee the edge here because the Ohio State loss to Michigan coming at home in the final week of the season was significant, and I think there should be some form of droppage for the Buckeyes.
But I can see that final home playoff game going either way, especially if the committee focuses more on Ohio State's final resume and not their final week.
The toughest call is the final playoff spot.
Based on my projections, I have it coming down to Alabama vs. Miami and the Tide getting in over the Hurricanes.
But, again, Vegas odds that I linked above appear to have it coming down to Alabama vs. South Carolina.
And is it possible I'm wrong and Indiana, for instance, is more in the debate than I have factored in? Sure.
I'm trying to use the playoff committee's rankings so far as a guide to the final teams up for debate, but they don't have to be bound by any rankings they've made in prior weeks, each week's poll can be brand new and not take into account prior polls.
So just be aware of that.
11. SEC power rankings 1-16
- Georgia
- Texas
- Tennessee
- Alabama
- South Carolina
- Ole Miss
- Texas A&M
- Missouri
- LSU
- Florida
- Vanderbilt
- Arkansas
- Oklahoma
- Auburn
- Kentucky
- Mississippi State