CFP Picks: Tennessee, Ohio State Battle. Can Clemson Shocks Texas? Notre Dame-IU Brawl, Penn State-SMU

History will be made this weekend as the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff will kick off with four on-campus games that include some of the most iconic teams in the sport’s history. Is there anything more fitting than Notre Dame, Penn State, Texas and Ohio State hosting first-round games entering the new era of the sport? Of course not
 

Will they hold serve, though? Indiana, SMU, Clemson and Tennessee, respectively, will look to silence the critics and oddsmakers, and move on to quarterfinal games at traditional bowl sites. 

What will happen? Outkick writers Trey Wallace and Barrett Sallee are here to make picks for all four games. 

Trey: 43-17 straight up, 31-29 against the spread

Barrett: 44-16 straight up, 33-27 against the spread

Indiana at Notre Dame (-7) 

WALLACE: I don't know why people are thinking Indiana is going to be out of this game by the second half, maybe it's because of how they played against Ohio State. The Hoosiers have enough offense to hang with Notre Dame in this one, behind QB Kurtis Rourke. But, the defense does worry me going against Riley Leonard, in South Bend. I think this game goes into the fourth quarter tight, and the Irish grab a late touchdown to win. 

Notre Dame covers the spread, but it's close. 

Can Indiana football coach Curt Cignetti lead the Hoosiers to a win at Notre Dame? (Credit: Getty Images)

SALLEE: I love a Cinderella story as much as the next guy, but Indiana’s will come to a tragic end on Friday night in South Bend. The Fighting Irish will turn this one into an old-school, ground-and-pound slugfest with running back Jeremiyah Love and quarterback Riley Leonard leading the way. That rushing attack will go north of 200 yards, Indiana’s defense will wear down and the Irish will take this one by double-digits.

SMU at Penn State (-8.5): 

WALLACE: Ok, this is where I think we get a little of that college football playoff chaos, with SMU traveling north to State College. This Penn State offense has the ability to go cold, and I'm not talking about the weather. Drew Allar will have to do a lot with his legs against this SMU team, but on the other side, Kevin Jennings could light up the stat sheet with his ability to make plays. 

I think SMU keeps this thing close, but Penn State wins, but doesn’t cover. 

SALLEE: There’s going to be an upset somewhere, and it’ll take place in Happy Valley as SMU will stay hot and upend a Penn State team that always seems to be fighting against a glass ceiling. Nittany Lions coach James Franklin compared Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings to current Baltimore Ravens star and former Louisville Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson earlier this week, and Jennings will prove Franklin right with a historic performance through the air and on the ground. Both of these teams are capable of getting into shootouts, and Jennings is much more equipped than Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar to play that brand of football.
 

Clemson at Texas (-12): 

WALLACE: Here we go, the Texas offense is back on display after an interesting game from Quinn Ewers in the SEC Championship. I know Clemson is a longshot in this one, but if Ewers starts getting sloppy with the football, this will turn into the Tigers favor. Can Cade Klubnik take advantage of a few turnovers by the Longhorns. To me, this is the point of emphasis in the game. The Longhorns coasted into the CFP, while Clemson had to fight towards the end of the regular season. I think this one gets pretty wild. 

Clemson wins, shocking Texas and the College Football world. 

Can Dabo Swinney lead the Clemson Tigers to a College Football Playoff win at Texas? . (Photo by John Byrum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

SALLEE: TOO MANY DARN POINTS. Clemson’s defense is like a copperhead snake in the woods in the summertime. You know it’s there and try to tread lightly, but it can strike and release its poisonous venom in the blink of an eye. That doesn’t bode well for a Texas team that has struggled mightily against halfway decent front sevens this season. That will be enough to keep this one close. The Tigers will have the ball late in the fourth quarter with a chance to tie or win, but quarterback Cade Klubnik will make a critical mistake against a stout Texas secondary and the Longhorns will move on to the quarterfinals.

Tennessee at Ohio State (-7.5): 

WALLACE: Is the Tennessee offense capable of stretching the field against the Buckeyes? We're about to find out. Nico Iamaleava has the ability to get hot, but it's going to have to be different than 20-yard slants across the middle. If Chip Kelly allows QB Will Howard to come out slinging the ball, and puts the pressure on the Vols secondary, this one will turn into a barn burner. But, can Howard survive in the pocket against this Vols defensive line? That's what I come back to, knowing that Tennessee is capable of running the football behind Dylan Sampson. 

I think this turns into trench-warfare, but Ohio State finds a way to win in the final minutes. Tennessee covers, but the Buckeyes move on. 

KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE - OCTOBER 12: Nico Iamaleava #8 of the Tennessee Volunteers plays against the Florida Gators during their game at Neyland Stadium on October 12, 2024 in Knoxville, Tennessee. (Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)

SALLEE: Oddsmakers must know something that I don’t, because Tennessee’s defense has been rock solid all season and Ohio State’s offense didn’t look so hot the last time we saw it in the loss to Michigan. This one feels like it’s going to be extremely low-scoring, which makes it irresponsible to lay all of those points with the Buckeyes. In fact, don’t lay any points at all. I’ll trust Volunteers’ running back Dylan Sampson, avoid the Buckeye hype and pick Josh Heupel’s crew to win this one outright.

 There you have it, out first picks for the College Football Playoff. Let me know what you think by emailing me at Trey.Wallace@OutKick.com