CBB With Danny Z: Previewing The Entire Sweet 16

PublishedMarch 24, 2025 5:07 PM EDT•UpdatedMarch 25, 2025 10:42 AM EDT

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Well, the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament has come and gone, and Cinderella is nowhere to be found. Sure, #10 Arkansas upset #2 St. John's to reach the Sweet 16, but can a team from the SEC coached by John Calipari really be considered a "Cinderella" team? I say no.

In fact, there are no teams left from any mid-major conferences. Of the teams remaining, 15 are from the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12. Then there's Duke.

Have thoughts on college basketball that you want to share? Shoot me an email at dan.zaksheske@outkick.com or a tweet @RealDanZak.

OK, let's dive into the Sweet 16.

Preview of the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16…

East Region

The first game of the Sweet 16 has the potential for massive fireworks when Alabama takes on BYU in Newark, NJ. The total is set at 174.5.

That's an absurdly high over/under for a college basketball game and easily the highest of the eight games across Thursday and Friday. In fact, it's over 40 points higher than the lowest total of the weekend, Houston vs. Purdue (132.5).

Alabama has scored 170 points in its first two games (90 against Robert Morris and 80 against St. Mary's). BYU has outscored Alabama by one, scoring 80 against VCU and 91 against Wisconsin.

Alabama is #1 in the country in points per game and BYU ranks 21st. Both teams love to shoot threes, and they combine to average nearly 58 three-point attempts per game. Long story, short: buckle up.

In the other East Region Sweet 16 matchup, we've got NCAA Tournament Championship favorite Duke taking on Arizona. Man, the East has to have the two best Sweet 16 matchups, right?

And I'm not just saying that because I'll be in New Jersey covering the regional for OutKick. But I will be there, so make sure to follow along!

Cooper Flagg and the Duke Blue Devils take on the Arizona Wildcats in the Sweet 16 of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

(Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

Not only is Duke the favorite to win it all, they have the best player in the country, Cooper Flagg. Flagg entered the NCAA Tournament as a question mark after suffering an ankle injury during the ACC Tournament. But he hasn't shown any signs of being hurt, scoring 18 points and playing 29 minutes in the team's Round of 32 win over Baylor.

For Arizona, Caleb Love is one of the most enigmatic players in the entire NCAA Tournament. When Love is on, he's one of the best scorers in college basketball. That was the case against Oregon on Sunday night, as Love dropped 29 against the Ducks to help lead the Wildcats into the Sweet 16.

However, Love was a major reason why Arizona lost to Clemson in last year's Sweet 16. He shot just 5-18 from the field (0-9 from three) and scored only 13 points. If Arizona is going to pull the upset, they're going to need Love to score.

It's worth noting that Love went 4-1 against Duke when he played for North Carolina, including a win in the 2022 Final Four.

West Region

The other two games on Thursday night come from the West region, headlined by #1 Florida against #4 Maryland. The Terrapins reached the Sweet 16 thanks to the only buzzer-beater in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

But it came with controversy, as well, since it appeared that Derik Queen traveled before scoring the game-winning bucket against Colorado State.

But that doesn't matter now. Maryland is into the Sweet 16, and they're playing the top seed in the West Region out in San Francisco.

Florida needed a late-game surge to get past two-time defending champion UConn in the Round of 32, but they got there. The Gators are led by Walter Clayton, who scored exactly 23 points in each of the team's first two games. His shot-making is a big reason why Florida escaped UConn on Sunday.

The Gators are the heavy favorites, but anything can happen in March Madness.

Following Florida-Maryland is a matchup between #3 Texas Tech and the highest-seed remaining in the NCAA Tournament, #10 Arkansas. The Razorbacks pulled off the biggest upset of the tournament when they beat #2 St. John's, but can they keep it going against Tech?

Texas Tech is a team I highlighted prior to the tournament as a sleeper Final Four team, and I'm sticking with it. Tech won its first two games each by double-digits and did so without Chance McMillian, who averages over 14 points-per-game.

JT Toppin is a monster inside for the Red Raiders, and scored 25 points against Drake. Plus, Darrion Williams returned from his own injury issues and scored 28 points against Drake.

Texas Tech Red Raiders forward JT Toppin is a monster inside, but the Raiders need guard Chance McMillian to get healthy for the Sweet 16. Mandatory Credit:

(William Purnell/Imagn Images)

While Williams and Toppin combine to give Texas Tech one of the best frontcourts in the country, they need McMillian healthy because he's their best guard. Keep an eye on his status heading into Thursday night. They could get past Arkansas without McMillian, but there's very little chance they would defeat Florida without him.

South Region

The first game on Friday night features #6 Ole Miss squaring off against #2 Michigan State. The Spartans struggled against New Mexico, trailing by 10 points in the first half. But they rallied in the second half and eventually pulled away from the Lobos to advance to the Sweet 16.

Tom Izzo is no stranger to NCAA Tournament success, having led the Spartans to eight Final Fours and one National Championship. But the last title came 25 years ago.

Ole Miss staved off a late run by North Carolina in the First Round and then pummeled a banged-up Iowa State squad on Sunday. Perhaps the Rebels are just happy to have made the Sweet 16 because it had been a long time since their last appearance.

Quite frankly, this is one of the least-exciting Sweet 16 matchups of the weekend, but whatever (at least in my view). But it does have one of the closest spreads, so there's that.

The second game of the South Regional on Friday night is a battle between NCAA Tournament #1 overall seed Auburn and #5 Michigan.

Michigan entered the Big Ten Tournament on a three-game losing streak but managed to win the tournament with a three-game win streak and then won their first two games of the NCAA Tournament, meaning they come into the matchup against Auburn having won five-in-a-row.

While the Wolverines barely survived an upset bid against UC San Diego in the First Round, they got past Texas A&M with relative ease in the Round of 32. It's worth noting that A&M defeated Auburn as part of the Tigers' struggle down the stretch.

Auburn lost three of four games entering the NCAA Tournament, only defeating Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament semifinals before losing to Tennessee. But they easily dispatched Alabama A&M in the First Round and then defeated Creighton by 12 on Saturday.

Auburn needs Johni Broome to regain his dominant form if they want to defeat Michigan and eventually advance to the Final Four.

(Imagn Images)

Johni Broome is the focal point of the Auburn offense (and defense, really), but he hasn't done much so far in the NCAA Tournament. Broome averaged 26.7 points over the Tigers' last three games entering the Big Dance (including the two SEC Tournament games), but has scored just 22 points combined in two NCAA Tourney games.

They're going to need Broome to be dominant if they want to make a run to the Final Four.

Midwest Region

On to the final region to play a Sweet 16 game, the Midwest. This game features the first matchup of the NCAA Tournament between two teams from the same conference: #3 Kentucky vs. #2 Tennessee.

There's so much intrigue in this game, not just because both are SEC schools, but because Kentucky and Tennessee are heated rivals. Although Tennessee is the higher seed, Kentucky defeated them twice during the regular season.

However, their most recent matchup was six weeks ago. And everyone knows how difficult it is to beat the same team three times in a season. Despite Kentucky getting the better of Tennessee twice, oddsmakers like Tennessee's odds to advance.

UT is led by Chaz Lanier, who is the leading scorer in the NCAA Tournament (49 points) among teams still alive (Wisconsin's John Tonje led all scorers with 52 points in the first weekend, but the Badgers lost to BYU in the Round of 32).

In fact, Lanier and Zakai Ziegler have scored 76 of the team's 144 points (53%) so far in the NCAA Tournament.

Kentucky features an incredibly balanced attack, with six different players who averaged at least 10 points per game this season (Tennessee only has three). Unfortunately, one of those players – Jaxson Robinson – is out for the season.

So, will it be the stars of Tennessee or the balance of Kentucky? That's the question heading into Friday night.

Kentucky beat Tennessee twice in the regular season, but can the Wildcats defeat the Volunteers in the Sweet 16 to advance in the NCAA Tournament?

(Jordan Prather/Imagn Images)

Following UK/UT is the final game of the Sweet 16 between #1 Houston and #4 Purdue. Houston had to win a dogfight against a badly under-seeded and very talented Gonzaga team in the Round of 32, while Purdue defeated #13 High Point and #12 McNeese State.

So, Purdue hasn't seen a team anywhere near the talent of Houston so far this tournament, while Gonzaga actually rates as a better team than Purdue, according to KenPom.

Purdue lost to Michigan by 18 points in the Big Ten Tournament, and they lost their final regular season game against Illinois. In fact, the Boilermakers lost six of their nine games leading up to the Big Dance. Thus, bookmakers like Houston a lot in this one.

But we know anything can happen in the NCAA Tournament. That's why they call it March Madness.

Worst betting beat of the NCAA Tournament so far…

OutKick's betting guru, Geoff Clark, has already done an excellent breakdown of the worst beat of the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.

The short story is that UConn vs. Florida in the Round of 32 had a pregame over/under of 150.5. The two teams combined for 43 points in the final 5:30, including 16 points in the last 30 seconds. Then, there was a meaningless three-pointer at the buzzer to cash the over.

Luckily for bettors, the lack of excitement, upsets and buzzer-beaters in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament meant very few bad beats. Always a silver lining, right?

Some of OutKick's great NCAA Tournament coverage over the past few days…

Roundball Roundup…

It's hard to watch kids suffer heartbreak, but it's a reminder of how important the NCAA Tournament is to the players and coaches…

It was nice to see several college basketball players not afraid to share their religious beliefs on the sport's biggest stage…

How did the manager of McNeese State become the biggest star of the NCAA Tournament?

My goodness Earl Timberlake…

Kansas may have lost in the First Round, but A.J. Storr had the block of the NCAA Tournament…

A Louisville fan threw a water bottle onto the court during the team's First Round loss to Creighton and the broadcast team acted like it was a live grenade…

Just lost in the NCAA Tournament, what's next? The transfer portal, apparently…

Want to see something included in a future "CBB With Danny Z"? Shoot me an email at dan.zaksheske@outkick.com or a tweet @RealDanZak.