Buck Showalter Misses The Point On Francisco Lindor-Shohei Ohtani MVP Debate
As the 2024 Major League Baseball season comes to a close, the debate over end-of-season awards is heating up. Into early-September, both the American and National Leagues have two frontrunners who have separated themselves from the rest of the pack. Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. in the AL, and Shohei Ohtani and Francisco Lindor in the NL.
Deciding which player you believe is most deserving is a test of what you value most in baseball. Does playing quality defense at a premium position matter more? What about providing the most offensive production, as that's a more easily quantifiable metric?
Should players be penalized when determining their value for not playing defense at all?
Former New York Mets manager Buck Showalter knows what he thinks. There's just one problem: he's wrong.
Showalter on MLB Network recently was asked his thoughts on the debate between Ohtani and Lindor in the NL, and firmly chose Lindor. "He can go 0-for-4 and win a game," Showalter said. "Those DHs can't go 0-for-4 and win a game."
But in doing so, Showalter misses the point, as well as ignores the sophistication of modern baseball statistical analysis.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 23: Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrates after hitting a walk-off grand slam home run, his 40th home run of the season, against the Tampa Bay Rays at Dodger Stadium on August 23, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)
Shohei Ohtani Has Been The NL's Most Valuable Player
Yes, Showalter is right that Lindor's defensive abilities give him an advantage over someone who doesn't play the field. But it also means that Lindor's fielding mistakes can cost his team games in a way that a designated hitter can't.
That isn't to say that Lindor isn't an elite defensive shortstop; he easily passes both the eye test and the statistical test on defense. But defense is a double-edged sword, and while Lindor has added value on defense overall, that doesn't mean he hasn't made mistakes.
Showalter also ignores that Ohtani, unlike most designated hitters, can win a game for his team even while going 0-4. Because he's one of the best baserunners in the sport.
Per Fangraphs, Ohtani's added nearly seven runs of value on the bases this year for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He's stolen 46 bases, including 23 consecutive without being thrown out. Lindor's an above-average baserunner too, but can't match Ohtani's consistency and volume. Ohtani's also added over 58 runs on offense more than the average hitter. Lindor has added "just" 30.
That's part of the reason why, per Baseball-Reference, Ohtani has nearly a win advantage over Lindor in wins above replacement: 7.1 to 6.2. Modern statistical analysis can account for defensive value, baserunning value and offensive value. And it generally still favors Ohtani. Not to mention more intangible benefits like the fact that Ohtani's extreme exit velocities could change defensive positioning, lead to more runs on sacrifice flies from deeper outfield play, allow for baserunners to take the extra base on long fly ball outs, and any number of invisible contributions.
None of that should take away from Lindor; he's still having an outstanding season, and based on his quality of contact, he should have provided even more offensive value. Ohtani's just been better. Showalter managed Lindor, got to see him impact the game up close every day. Watch Ohtani every day, you'll be just as amazed at the way he can impact games.