Bold Predictions For the 2024 Formula 1 Season That Are Destined To Come True, You'll See
Do you feel that excitement in the air? Well, that's because it's the first race week of the 2024 Formula 1 season!
Every team is bringing a new car to the track which means everyone's slate is wiped clean. That means that anyone on the grid could make gains that could put them within reach of race wins or even a championship…
…although, more than likely, the best nine of the ten teams can probably hope for is finishing second to Red Bull… again.
While Red Bull is the prohibitive favorite again, the early returns from testing indicate that the field may be tighter than it has been in years, which means that we should be in for a heck of a season.
So, like we did last year — to varying degrees of success and objectively hilarious failure — let's make some bold predictions for this season — one for each team on the grid.
We'll go in reverse constructors standings order from last season, which means that…
*Checks notes*
We'll start with Haas.
Haas: Gets Purchased By Andretti Before The Season Ends
This is an odd prediction, but I think there’s a good chance we see some drama off-track with Haas.
The team expects to be toward the back to start this season — it's first without longtime team principal Guenther Steiner — although they had a pretty solid test that involved most race sims and logging more laps than any other team on the grid.
However, I’m not sure they’ll take a step forward the way owner Gene Haas probably wants.
So, with the news that F1 shot down Andretti and GM’s bid to join the grid, my bold prediction is that Haas sells the team to Andretti and GM who will then turn it into an Andretti-Cadillac team.
I’m basing this on nothing other than the fact that Haas is probably the only team on the grid that would entertain such an offer. Andretti tried to buy Sauber a couple of years ago, but that fizzled out, and the team was sold to Audi.
Michael Andretti wants to get on the grid in the worst way, and so does GM, but only with Andretti. So, while getting shutout by F1 would give Haas all of the leverage, and would drive the price up.
I’m not saying it will happen, but these predictions are supposed to be bold, dammit, and this sure is a bold one.
Stake F1 Team Kick Sauber: A Shock Podium
Stake F1 Team Kick Sauber (which we will be calling "Sauber" for the rest of the season to keep me from developing carpal tunnel syndrome) is one of the four teams at the back of the grid locked in a tight battle.
Sauber had a relatively uneventful test with the most noticeable moment being Zhou Guanyu throwing down one of the fastest laps of the three days. While it was likely a low-fuel glory run (and on some of the softest tires available), it showed that there could be some pace in that snazzy bright green car.
I don’t think Sauber will be competing for podiums on a weekly or even monthly basis, but they’ve got two solid drivers in Zhou and Valtteri "Assman" Bottas who I think could take advantage of a chaotic situation and steal a podium.
This will be the penultimate season before Sauber goes under Audi's control, so they’ll be an interesting team to watch knowing such a big change is on the horizon.
Visa Cash App RB: Yuki Tsunoda Outscores Daniel Ricciardo
The second of two teams with clunky new names, Visa Cash App RB (henceforth referred to as "RB" for the same reason I’m calling Sauber "Sauber") and I think they could surprise a lot of people.
They’ve got a solid driver lineup in Daniel Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda, and the team is working closer with its sister team Red Bull than it ever has before.
Y’know, Red Bull? That team that has dominated the last two seasons?
So, with that plus some new leadership in ex-Ferrari man Laurent Mekies, I think we could see some surprising results from this team.
What will also be interesting is the inter-Red Bull teammate battles as it looks like Sergio Perez’s seat with the big team will be up for grabs. I think the general consensus is that Ricciardo is the man to beat at RB, but I disagree and think Yuki Tsunoda will be the team’s top driver.
Plus, last season I said Nyck de Vries would outscore Yuki last season and, well…
Williams looks primed to take another step forward this season after a solid 2023. (Photo by Michael Potts/BSR Agency/Getty Images)
Williams: Upward Trajectory Continues To P6
2023 was a solid year for a Williams team that jumped to P7 in the constructor standings after finishing P10 the season before.
The team had a car that was one of the best on the grid whenever a low-downforce set-up was needed, and you’ve got to think that over the winter the team fine-tuned their ride to make it more effective on more tracks.
Alex Albon had a monstrous 2023, in which he scored all but one of the team’s 28 points, effectively making him a hot commodity on the driver market.
I think there’s a very good chance Williams takes another step forward this season, but that will be contingent upon Logan Sargeant helping in the points department. Sargeant made some mistakes, but I thought it was a pretty solid rookie year in which he hung around the points in races where the car should’ve scored.
He scored his lone point at Circuit of the Americas — fittingly enough, as the only American on the grid — but he needs to score more. Not only because having two drivers score is better than one, but also because it will also steal points off of teams ahead of them.
Williams finished 92 points behind Alpine in P6, but I think they’ve got a chance of hopping them with a few solid double-point weekends.
Alpine: A Significant Tumble Down The Order
Alpine is always tough to predict because they’re the most inconsistent team on the grid. One weekend they breeze their way into Q3 and score points with both cars, the next they’re out in Q1 and are practically invisible on Sunday.
My bold prediction for Alpine is not one they’re going to like: I think they move backward this season.
I’m calling for more bad weekends than good, which will open the door for Williams to slip by them.
That may seem surprising given their solid driver lineup of Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon, but the car will be the issue.
The team wasn’t exactly pumped after testing, where their car didn’t really impress. You’ve got a Renault power unit known to be the least powerful on the grid. No one had a catastrophic test, but Alpine is the team that seems to be the most on the backdoor.
That’s why I wouldn’t be shocked to see them drop from their P6 last down as far as P8, maybe even P9.
Fernando Alonso hasn't won a Grand Prix since 2013, but could a less draggy Aston Martin be his ticket to the top step of the podium? (Photo by Mark Thompson/Getty Images)
Aston Martin: Fernando Alonso Wins A Grand Prix
Aston Martin started last season with what was undoubtedly the second-fastest car on the grid but struggled by the end of the year.
Last year’s car was at its best in low-speed corners where higher-downforce set-ups usually equal success. However, that came with a big trade-off in that the car was draggy and suffered on the straight-line speed front.
That appears to have been addressed because according to The Race, Aston Martin 198.5 mph in the speed trap which was the fifth fastest of any team and even put them ahead of Ferrari and Mercedes.
Of course, McLaren, their biggest rival from 2023 topped that list at over 202 mph…
Still, I think Aston Martin could be a team to watch out for at places like Monaco and Hungary, and given the reduction in drag, maybe even Baku. If that’s the case, expect Fernando to take advantage of it.
McLaren: Oscar Piastri Wins A Race And Does It Before Lando Norris
McLaren had one of the wildest seasons of any team on the grid in 2023. They were in a bad spot after preseason testing and through the first few races. However, they slowly turned things around, and by the time the summer break was over, the McLarens were suddenly the two best teams on the grid.
At this point, we know what we’re getting out of Lando Norris, but Oscar Piastri was a bit of a mystery. Sure he was stellar in junior formulas, but how would his rookie season shake out?
Turns out that once the team had the right car he was spectacular. That’s why I’m calling it now: Piastri will win a Grand Prix this season — the first of his career — and I think he’ll get it done before his teammate wins his first Grand Prix.
Piastri finished the season over 100 points back on Norris, however, he did win the sprint race in Qatar.
Either way, I think this will be one of the most interesting teammate battles on the grid.
Carlos Sainz was the odd man out at Ferrari, and what better way to split from the Scuderia than by being the top driver? (Photo by Clive Mason/Getty Images)
Ferrari: Sainz Beats Leclerc In The Driver Standings
Ferrari is one of two teams (McLaren is the other) that has its driver line-up for 2025 locked in before the start of the season. However, that line-up is Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton, which leaves Carlos Sainz as the odd man out.
I think this will leave Sainz with a chip on his shoulder, especially when you consider that he was the only non-Red Bull driver to win a race last season.
Sainz is going to be one of the hottest commodities on the driver market and the first few races of the season could help determine what kind of deal he can get next and with which team.
I think the wildest way for Sainz to end his time at the Scuderia would be by outperforming the team’s golden boy, Leclerc.
That won’t be easy, but while Sainz wasn’t the more consistent of the two Ferrari drivers last season, his highs were higher.
If he can make those a little more frequent, he can leave Ferrari as the top dog.
Mercedes: Lewis Hamilton Returns To The Top Step Of The Podium
Lewis Hamilton is one of, if not the greatest driver in F1 history, but he hasn’t won a race since 2021. This has stalled his career win total at 103. That was due primarily to Mercedes bungling the switch to the new regulations in 2022, but the team has changed its ways and has a different approach in 2023.
Some of Hamilton’s complaints about the team’s last two cars have been addressed, including the location of the cockpit, which he felt was too far forward.
Mercedes came on strong at the end of last season, and Hamilton even wound up on the podium. It looks like Mercedes can compete with the Ferraris, but the Red Bulls will still be an issue. They were practically bulletproof last season, but if they run into a reliability issue or crash out, that’s a perfect chance for Hamilton to steal career win No. 104.
As great as he has been for Red Bull over the years, Sergio Perez has a ton of pressure on him in 2024. (Photo by Bryn Lennon - Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images)
Red Bull: Mid-Season Driver Change
Until Lewis Hamilton announced his jump to Ferrari, opening a seat at Mercedes, the second seat at Red Bull was the most talked about seat in F1.
It still looks like it’s Sergio Perez’s to lose, but there’s no shortage of people who could be slotted into it if he underperforms.
Daniel Ricciardo, Yuki Tsunoda, and Liam Lawson are all on the Red Bull books already, and we know that the team is not scared to switch it up mid-season.
If Perez struggles through the early summer like he did last year I can see a situation where Ricciardo jumps back into a Red Bull while Lawson slides into the vacant RB.
I think Checo deserves better than to get swapped mid-season — the F1 equivalent of getting pantsed in front of your high school — but Red Bull gets impatient.
…
So that's what I'm calling for in 2024. We'll check back after the season to see how I did, which is honestly the most fun part of this exercise.
But what's your take on this season? Do you have any bold takes? if you do I want to hear them. Type them up in an email and send them to mattreigleoutkick@gmail.com.