Florida's Upcoming Schedule Is Brutal, But Billy Napier's Gators Will Win Enough Games For 2025 Return

As Florida embarks on the 2024 season, which is imperative for the future of the Gators football program, the question of whether or not Billy Napier will be around for the following season has been one of the most talked about subjects in the SEC. 

While the college football world has been caught-up in the ever-changing landscape of NIL and revenue-sharing that athletic departments are currently preparing for, fans of the Gators have been staring at the second-half of 2024 schedule in trepidation. 

But, does the schedule actually help Billy Napier in his quest to return in 2025? It should, given that it will temper the expectations of Florida fans this season. Unfortunately, no matter what the schedule looks like, the Gators brand is what has folks down in Gainesville worried the most about being left behind in this new era of college sports, and the SEC. 

As we all know, Florida football is not supposed to be fighting for seventh or eighth place in the SEC, and this is one of the reasons why Billy Napier was hired. Getting the Gators back to relevancy was the main goal, but it's going to take time, given that there were so many problems with the previous staff, especially on the recruiting front. 

The Billy Napier era at Florida will be tested in 2024, but he should return in 2025. (Florida Athletics and UAA Communications)

We are living in an era where athletic departments are loading up on football staff members at a fierce pace, and Napier has been given the keys to the human resources department to put together the best staff he can, and that includes hiring enough staffers that makes Gainesville look like Tuscaloosa. 

And even with the amount of talented coaches in the building, the Florida administration is still waiting on a return on investment. Over the course of two seasons, Billy Napier has a record of 11-14, coming off a 5-7 season in 2023. He's also 1-5 against the Gators' most important rivals: Florida State, Tennessee and Georgia. Add that in with losses to Vanderbilt and Kentucky, and you understand why Florida fans are so worried about the current trajectory of the football program. 

By that measure, the Gators are in the same boat as the Arkansas Razorbacks, and that is something in which the Gators' administration is having a hard time stomaching. But the only reason to look at past records is to put together a reason why this isn't going to workout for Napier in the long-run, which I don't feel as if we will know entering the month of November this season. 

"I think you have to be real smart as an athletic administration about making a decision with the current mess that we're dealing with from the House settlement," one Power-5 AD told OutKick. "You look at what he inherited, the facilities and the growing NIL situation. I think Florida is unique, because they’re still a household name, and a team that should be competing for titles. But, they cannot afford to get lost in the shuffle of the new SEC and competing for seventh or eighth place in the conference. 

"If Billy (Napier) can give fans some hope by performing well and showing improvement, then I don't see why he wouldn't be on the sidelines in 2025. But, we all know the pressure of winning at a place like Florida, and you have to sell tickets."

Florida's Schedule Is Brutal, But There Are Ways To Continue Growing

I'm sure you've seen enough about the daunting schedule that awaits the Gators in 2024, but this is one of the main reasons why I predict that Billy Napier will return in 2025. Opening the season with Miami in Gainesville will be an early barometer of how this team will look with Graham Mertz at quarterback once again. 

Having Eugene Wilson back at wide receiver will certainly help, while Kahleil Jackson is an added benefit. But if the Gators are going to find enough wins to get them bowl eligible, they cannot afford any injuries, considering the depth at current spots. 

In the opening month of the season, Florida will play Miami, Samford, Texas A&M and Mississippi State. If the Gators don't get out of this stretch with at least three wins, it's going to make for a very long season. In the month of October, Florida will play only three games, but they are against UCF (Upset Alert), Tennessee and Kentucky. 

Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier and Florida Gators quarterback Graham Mertz talk during a timeout during the first half against the Charlotte 49ers at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Fla. on September 23, 2023. [Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun]

If they lose to the Golden Knights and Gus Malzahn, the fans will be putting ‘For Sale’ signs in Billy's yard, especially with a trip to Knoxville the following week, then coming home to play Kentucky, which has been a pain for the Gators recently. But, if you come out of this stretch with two wins, then there is life within the program, and boosters can hold-off on meeting to discuss how much money they'd have to donate to the firing fund. 

If that wasn't scary enough for Florida, the schedule in November looks like it was put together by staff members at the SEC office that have it out for the Gators. In all honesty, this might be the toughest stretch I've seen in college football in at least the past eight years. 

Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State are what we like to call a ‘murders row’, and will test the patience of Florida fans across the country. And while it looks tough, which it is, there is still a way to escape the month of November with optimism.  

Stay Competitive, Keep Games Close, And The Future Won't Be Dim

Coming off his best season, Graham Mertz can be the guy that keeps Florida competitive in these games, and maybe pull-off an upset or two. If the Gators go 0-5 in the month of November, staying within striking distance in most of these games can do enough for morale to give Billy Napier another season at the helm in Gainesville. 

I know Florida fans don't want to hear excuses about these potential losses, but you had better be looking for the brightside in some of these games, or you're going to lose your minds, quick. While the Gators are talented enough on defense, there will need to be a little luck for them to keep the scores respectable in at least two of those games. Or, college football can go full-on crazy and Ole Miss, Texas and Florida State don't live up to expectations and the Gators enter November looking better than expected. 

We have no idea how this season is going to play out. We're all just looking at these situations on paper, and that should give Florida fans hope, if anything else. 

Billy Napier will need Graham Mertz to have another stellar season at Florida in 2024 Via: Florida Athletics

Billy Napier Will Return In 2025, With A 5-Star Quarterback 

After it's all said and done, the 2024 season is finished and the Gators either get some extra practices for a mediocre bowl game, I expect Billy Napier to get his shot with DJ Lagway in 2025. The changing landscape of college football, with the transfer portal and teams being able to piece together a roster with money, will be enough for Florida's administration to give Napier one more shot. 

Entering his third season of a seven-year contract, Florida would owe Billy $25.7 million if he were to be fired following the 2024 campaign. For a school that is trying to figure out how to pay for the upcoming revenue sharing, along with every other athletic department around the country, it's going to take an absolute miserable season for Scott Stricklin to pull the trigger on spending that type of money. 

GAINESVILLE, Fla. - Head coach Billy Napier of the Florida Gators talks with Athletic Director Scott Stricklin before the start of a game against the Charlotte 49ers at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on September 23, 2023. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)

And, there is still a chance that Napier can turn this thing around in Gainesville, but they have to get through 2024 first, and it might not look great at times. I'm certainly not telling Florida fans to temper their expectations for this season, but I would advise them to not go crazy. If the Gators make a bowl game this season, that's a success in my book, seeing that they did not achieve that goal in 2023. 

Now, if there's a blockbuster coach out there that Jimmy Sexton is promising will take the Gators job if things go south inside the athletic complex and relationships can't be fixed, then you probably make a move. 

But, my bet is Billy Napier is leading the Gators out of the tunnel in 2025, which is weird to think about, given that we haven't started the 2024 season yet.