Atlanta Braves Are Collapsing At Wrong Time

The Atlanta Braves have effectively owned the National League East since 2018.

Every season, like clockwork, no matter how many free agents their opponents sign, or how much roster turnover they've had, the Braves have found a way to win their division. They were baseball's best team in 2023, winning 104 games and easily leading Major League Baseball in runs scored with 947. 

In 2023, through the regular season, everything came easy for Atlanta. This year though, has been the opposite. And as regular-season games continue to tick away, the Braves are falling in danger of not only losing their East crown, but missing the playoffs entirely.

Jun 14, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves manager Brian Snitker (43) in the dugout against the Tampa Bay Rays in the second inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Atlanta Braves Battling Injuries, Underperformance Into Late-2024

The Braves on Thursday lost their fifth consecutive game, getting blown out by the Milwaukee Brewers 16-7. They lost 8-5 on Wednesday, and 10-0 on Tuesday. They even somehow managed to split a four-game series with the lowly Miami Marlins. 

Thursday's loss though, moved the Braves to eight games back of the first-place Philadelphia Phillies with just 48 games remaining. Even more importantly, it moved Atlanta to a tie for the third wild card spot with the New York Mets. And with the Mets leading 7-1, at day's end the Braves could be out of the postseason picture if the season ended today.

At the All-Star break, they had a relatively comfortable lead to secure the first wild-card position, and a four-game cushion on New York. That's evaporated quickly.

And for a team that had a 99% probability of making the postseason at the start of the season, they've dropped into the mid-60's. 

So what's happened? 

Yes, the Braves have had their share of injuries: Ronald Acuna Jr. is out for the season, Spencer Strider is too. Michael Harris III has missed time, Ozzie Albies has a fractured wrist, Reynaldo Lopez is on the IL and Max Fried has also dealt with injuries.

But it's not just the injuries; key players have underperformed or regressed from their 2023 performance. First baseman Matt Olson had a 6.5 WAR season in 2023, hitting 54 home runs with a .389 on base percentage. This year, he's hitting .229/.307/.418 and has added just half a win above a replacement level player.

Orlando Arcia had been a league average hitter in 2023, but has cost the team 13 runs on offense by hitting .227 with a .273 on base percentage. Even Austin Riley, after back-to-back 5+ WAR seasons is on pace to finish in the mid-3's. 

The pitching, carried by the strong performance of Chris Sale, has remained generally well above average. But a year after scoring 947 runs, Atlanta's on pace to score just 680 this year. It's a substantial decline, and it could cost the Braves dearly.

While other teams were aggressive at the deadline, Atlanta wasn't, adding another underperforming hitter in Jorge Soler. It might cost them what felt like a birthright: an appearance in October baseball.