Are MLB Teams Colluding Against Players In Free Agency?

It's no secret that this offseason in Major League Baseball has been…unusual to say the least.

We're now into March, meaning the regular season starts this month. And big name free agents like Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, J.D. Martinez and Jordan Montgomery remain unsigned. Cody Bellinger just recently agreed to return to the Chicago Cubs on a potential three-year deal. 

Some of that might be blamed on super agent Scott Boras and his penchant for holding out as long as possible to extract the most money out of teams. 

READ: What Is Scott Boras Thinking Letting Four Premier MLB Clients Go Unsigned In Free Agency?

But what if there's another, more sinister explanation for the lengthy waiting times and slow moving free agency signing process?  That's what Los Angeles Dodgers utility man Kike Hernandez believes. 

Hernandez just re-signed with LA after waiting nearly the entire offseason to find a new team. And in some recent comments, he made a very thinly veiled accusation against the league's teams and how they're approaching, or not approaching, players.

"I'm not going to say the C-word, but I think the C-word needs to be with a capital C," he said during an interview on "Foul Territory." The "C-word" being, of course, collusion. Hernandez continued, explaining that "the timing of the calls were very similar," and that those offers were "pretty much the same throughout," with teams keeping away at regular intervals. The "silence period was kind of around the same time," he said.

Bit suspicious!

Aug 23, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Enrique Hernandez (8) celebrates his two-RBI double beside Cleveland Guardians third baseman Tyler Freeman (2) in the first inning at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Free Agency Collusion Becoming A Problem In MLB?

Hernandez said he believes teams are all using the same projection systems to determine what offers they're willing to make to players.

"I think the teams that use these computer programs to project salaries and project numbers, they're all using the same one, and I think they all have the same password," he said. And while that wouldn't exactly be collusion, per se, it does make some sense. 

Every team does now use computer projections to determine team building and player signing strategies, because they'd be falling woefully behind the competition if they didn't. And free agency is about paying for players' future performance, not their past. Projecting possible futures is key, and with all 30 teams having access to the same data on outcomes like batted ball exit velocities and hard hit rate, it's not surprising that the offers would be similar.

Unfortunately for some players that have less in demand skill sets, modern baseball teams have gotten better and better at evaluating players. 

That said, it's also possible that teams do have conversations with each other about their offers, and discussing player values could easily lead to suspiciously similar outcomes. Hernandez obviously knows more about the behind-the-scenes discussions than outsiders, and maybe he's heard from friends around the league that collusion is a significant concern.

If true, it'd be an inexcusable decision by the league's executives and owners, and may give some clues as to why it's taken so many players so long to find new homes.