American League Playoffs Are A Joke
Major League Baseball's push to increase revenue with more postseason games has generally been financially successful. Though it has created some unintended consequences, including injecting more mediocrity into the game's biggest stage. Nowhere is that unfortunately dichotomy more obvious than the 2024 American League playoffs.
The American League Central division sent three teams to the postseason: the Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Guardians. Those three teams took advantage of playing 39 teams against one of the worst teams in the history of baseball: the Chicago White Sox. Sure enough, they won a combined 30 of 39 games against their hapless division rival, helping push them over the top for a postseason berth.
The Royals, for example, went 12-1 against Chicago. Against the other 29 teams, they were 74-75. Similarly, the Tigers were 10-3, and just 76-73 against the other 29 teams. Cleveland won 92 games, but had the run differential of a 90-win team. Put the Guardians at their "true talent" level, and take away the games against the White Sox, and their winning percentage would have missed the postseason if they played in the National League. Looking at their roster in game one of the ALCS against the New York Yankees, it's easy to see why.
CLEVELAND, OHIO - OCTOBER 12: Lane Thomas #8 of the Cleveland Guardians celebrates a grand slam during the fifth inning against the Detroit Tigers during Game Five of the Division Series at Progressive Field on October 12, 2024 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)
Guardians, Tigers, Yankees Not Exactly Filled With Talent
The Guardians starting lineup for game one on Monday night in New York featured David Fry hitting second, a 28-year-old "rookie" who had 1.7 wins above replacement this year, below the major league average. He was removed for pinch hitter Will Brennan in the eighth inning; Brennan had an OPS under .700 this season.
Other Cleveland starters included Jhonkensky Noel, who hit .218 with a .288 on base percentage in 2024. Bo Naylor who hit .201 with a .264 on base percentage, and Brayan Rocchio who hit .206 with a .298 on base percentage. The Guardians, showing off their "depth," pinch hit for several starters throughout the game. Those pinch hitters included Kyle Manzardo, Daniel Schneemann, and Austin Hedges.
Not one of those players was a league-average hitter this season, yet they were given opportunities in a relatively close game one of the most important series of the year. Hedges hit .152 with a .220 slugging percentage, a batting line 80% worse than an average catcher in MLB this season. He hasn't even been within 50% of league average on offense since 2018. He made the final out of the game, with the least surprising strikeout in postseason history.
So how did the Guardians exceptionally mediocre lineup even make the ALCS in the first place? They got to play the Detroit Tigers in the ALDS.
The Tigers had just two players with 300 or more plate appearances post an above average batting line. Of the 11 Tigers hitters who had an at bat in game five in Cleveland on Saturday, seven actually cost their team runs on offense in the regular season compared to an average major league hitter. The Guardians didn't advance by being a great team, they won by being slightly less bad.
The Yankees aren't much better.
New York in game one had Austin Wells hitting cleanup. The same Austin Wells who hit .229 in the regular season and was worth 0.7 runs on offense more than a league average catcher. Gleyber Torres cost his team almost two runs on offense; Anthony Volpe six runs. Alex Verdugo started after taking away nearly 15 runs from the Yankees in negative offensive value, and completing the rare trifecta of hurting his team on offense, defense, AND base running. Anthony Rizzo also started, despite being one of the worst hitters in baseball this season, relative to his position and on a per-at bat basis. He too had negative value on offense, defense and base running. Even Giancarlo Stanton, despite his postseason heroics, was worth just four runs above average in 2024 thanks to a .298 on base percentage as a designated hitter, and some of the worst base running value in the sport.
Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are two of the top three hitters on earth, but the rest of the Yankees lineup is anywhere from unplayable to extremely mediocre. They went 0-7 with runners in scoring position and had just five hits against Alex Cobb, Joey Cantillo, Pedro Avila, Erik Sabrowski and Andrew Walters. They still won 5-2 thanks mostly to the Guardians pitching incompetence. Those names for Cleveland don't exactly sound like a playoff-ready pitching staff, do they? Welcome to the American League in 2024.
Organizations and front offices have realized that the randomness inherent in single-game matchups and the low bar to make the playoffs incentivizes mediocrity. So that's what they've delivered. Now we're seeing the results in the postseason, as quadruple-A level players take at bats and pitch the most meaningful innings of the season. MLB has lucked into having big market teams take up three of the four championship series slots. But the lack of talent throughout the American League playoffs continues the blaring warning signs from the 2023 tournament: mediocrity is more prevalent than ever. That World Series between the Rangers and Diamondbacks featured average teams and disastrous ratings.
Based on this year's AL field, baseball fans better get used to it.