All The Sudden, The Tampa Bay Rays Are No Longer Alone In First Place

It's been quietly creeping up on the Tampa Bay Rays, and on Wednesday, it finally happened.

With the Baltimore Orioles 8-5 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers and a 5-1 Rays loss to the Texas Rangers, the American League East race is officially a tie.

In fact, given their higher winning percentage, the Orioles would technically be considered a first place team.

For the first time since April 2nd, the Tampa Bay Rays no longer have a solo lead at the top of the division.

After the ridiculous 29-7 start to the season, many wondered if the Rays could challenge Major League Baseball's single season win total. Or at least exceed the 2022 Dodgers 112 wins.

But the Rays have stumbled over the past two months, with a 31-32 record since May 8th.

There may be no better indication of just how long the MLB season is than a team starting 29-7 only to fall out of first place by the middle of July.

TORONTO, ON - APRIL 14: Kevin Cash, Manager of the Tampa Bay Rays takes Colin Poche #38 of the Tampa Bay Rays out of the game in the fifth inning of their MLB game at against the Toronto Blue Jays Rogers Centre on April 14, 2023 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Cole Burston/Getty Images)

Many Explanations For Tampa Bay Rays' Struggles

Some of the dramatic about face can be ascribed to bad luck.

Tampa's outscored their opponents by 145 runs on the season, far outpacing the Orioles at +47.

Entering Wednesday, their "expected" record, based on how they'd performed against other teams, was 64-34, meaning they'd lost four more games than their run differential implies.

The Orioles meanwhile, were +6, indicating they've benefitted from some good luck throughout the season.

The Rays also have dealt with numerous injuries to their starting rotation. Pitchers like Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs are out for the season after playing substantial roles early on.

That's forced the team to use rookies like Taj Bradley earlier than expected, with middling results.

Mediocre relief pitching has also weighed the Rays down, leading to some incredibly unhelpful suggestions from fans.

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With two plus months remaining and the trade deadline approaching, the Rays have plenty of time and opportunity to retake their spot at the top of the division.

But the surprising Orioles clearly aren't going away anytime soon, and their vast prospect depth continues to pay off.

Fangraphs still gives the Rays a 60% chance of winning the division, to just 22.5% for Baltimore.

But that's still a far cry from expectations, just a few months ago, that Tampa was on their way to a historic cakewalk in the AL East.