2025 NCAA Tournament Breakdown: South Region Best Bets, Sleepers & Busts
The NCAA Tournament Bracket is set and, for many Americans, that means it's time to start making picks for March Madness bracket pools. In case you missed it, I wrote a general tips & tricks piece with advice for filling out your own bracket as you attempt to win your office pool.
For this series, we're going to go through each region and deliver an in-depth breakdown of each of the 16-team clusters, with some of my favorite picks and sleepers. We started with the East region, then we hit the West region, and now we move onto the South, which is headlined by the tournament's #1 overall seed, Auburn.
Most Likely Final Four Team: #1 Auburn Tigers
I know it's starting to get boring at this point, but I cannot stress enough how much better the four #1 seeds are compared to the rest of the teams in the NCAA Tournament. There's a legitimate chance we will see all #1 seeds in the Final Four for the first time since 2008.
Auburn is incredibly good and led by one of the best players in college basketball, Johni Broome. Bruce Pearl is arguably the best coach in the sport, perhaps only trailing UConn's Danny Hurley.
Player of the Year candidate Johni Broome leads the #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, the Auburn Tigers.
(Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
Both of them figure to make a huge difference for Auburn, who is the #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. The biggest problem for the Tigers is that the #8 seed in the region, Louisville, was badly under-seeded by the Selection Committee.
However, they drew favorable seeds almost everywhere else. Michigan State is one of the lowest-rated #2 seeds (only ahead of St. John's), #3 Iowa State has injury issues, #4 Texas A&M is the second-lowest rated #4 seed, and #5 Michigan just stinks.
Sleeper Final Four Pick: #11 North Carolina Tar Heels
Full disclosure: I had UNC listed as the sleeper team in this region before they demolished San Diego State in the First Four on Tuesday night. Why? North Carolina, quite simply, is much better than people realize.
As everyone was arguing over whether the Tar Heels belonged in the NCAA Tournament in the first place, few realized that UNC is playing its best basketball right now. Their only two losses since mid-February came against the best team in the country, Duke.
According to KenPom, UNC rates 30th overall in the country. Not only should they have reached the NCAA Tournament, they should have been much better than an 11-seed forced to play in the First Four. They're the highest-rated double digit seed in the entire tournament and are rated higher than teams like Memphis, Oregon, Oklahoma, UConn, and Georgia.
Plus, they have a good path to the Final Four. They get Ole Miss in the Round of 64 and the Tar Heels are THE FAVORITE to win the game outright. That's right, it wouldn't even be an upset for the #11 Tar Heels to beat the #6 Rebels.
If North Carolina beats Ole Miss, they're likely to face Iowa State, and as you're about to read, there are many reasons why Iowa State is not in a good position for the NCAA Tournament, mostly due to injury concerns.
The Tar Heels' biggest concern at the bottom of the bracket is Michigan State, but the Spartans don't have the offense to exploit UNC's inconsistent defense.
Still, North Carolina is 30-1 to reach the Final Four for a reason: it's unlikely to happen. But if you're looking for a flyer that most others will ignore, this is as good a spot as any in the South region.
Top 4 Seed Most Likely To Miss Sweet 16: #3 Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State is good, but they are dealing with too many injuries to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. The team's second leading scorer, Keshon Gilbert, has already been ruled out for the entire tournament.
Plus, junior guard Tamin Lipsy, who averages over 30 minutes and 10 points per game, missed the team's Big 12 tournament quarterfinals loss against BYU.
The Cyclones are one of the coldest teams entering the NCAA Tournament, particularly among the higher seeds. They're just 3-4 in their last seven heading into the Big Dance. Lacking momentum to go along with injury concerns is not a good recipe for success.
Iowa State is battling major injury concerns entering the NCAA Tournament.
(William Purnell/Imagn Images)
While Iowa State should still advance past the Round of 64, they're going to see Ole Miss or North Carolina in the Round of 32 and there's a good chance Iowa State would be an underdog against either opponent.
First-Round Upset Alert: #12 UC San Diego over #5 Michigan
Once again, the Selection Committee decided to make the five seeds terrible. It's like they know everyone loves a good 12-5 upset, so they made sure they would happen.
In this case, Michigan just isn't very good. Really, the entire Big 10 isn't great this year, aside from maybe Michigan State. According to KenPom, UCSD is just 10 spots behind Michigan in the overall ratings. That's exactly where we want to look when we're searching for first-round upset potential.
San Diego is coming off a Big West Tournament championship where they won each game by at least 10 points. In fact, they haven't lost a game in over two months.
Michigan won the Big 10 Tournament, which has led to their overrated position in the public's eye. Prior to that, they had lost three straight games. Add in the fact that they played two hotly contested games on both Saturday and Sunday to the fact that they have to play this game against UCSD in Denver, and you have the perfect recipe for an upset.
Player To Watch: R.J. Davis, North Carolina
An easy choice as the ACC's third all-time leading scorer, Davis lit up San Diego State with 26 points, shooting a perfect 6-6 from three-point range. Davis has tournament experience, helping North Carolina reach the National Championship three years ago.
Davis was a sophomore during that run, but still averaged 14.7 points per game. With Elliott Cadeau establishing himself as North Carolina's point guard, it's freed Davis up to act as more of a scorer and that has unlocked his full potential with regard to putting points on the board.
If Carolina is to make a deep run in this tournament – and don't be surprised if they do – it's going to have to begin and end with Davis being the star he's show he can be, especially in the big moments.