2025 NCAA Tournament Breakdown: Midwest Region Best Bets, Sleepers & Busts
The NCAA Tournament Bracket is set and, for many Americans, that means it's time to start making picks for March Madness bracket pools. In case you missed it, I wrote a general tips & tricks piece with advice for filling out your own bracket as you attempt to win your office pool.
For this series, we're going to go through each region and deliver an in-depth breakdown of each of the 16-team clusters, with some of my favorite picks and sleepers. We started with the East region, moved on to the West region, then the South region, and now we finish with the Midwest, headlined by the tournament's #3 overall seed, the Houston Cougars…
Most Likely Final Four Team: #1 Houston Cougars
Yup, four-for-four on picking #1 seeds to get to the Final Four. Boring and obvious, I know. But if you haven't realized by now, the top seeds in each region are the best teams by a lot. Most years, that isn't the case. This season is unique in that college basketball really has four dominant teams.
The Houston Cougars are one of those teams. Not only did they capture the Big 12 regular season and tournament championship, they won the conference tournament without their most important big man, J'Wan Roberts.
Roberts, like Cooper Flagg, sprained his ankle and was forced to sit, but is expected to return for the NCAA Tournament. That's a huge boost to the country's second-best defense. However, his status is worth monitoring. While the Cougars showed they can win without him, it'll be tough for them to win it all without his presence up front.
Sleeper Final Four Pick: #8 Gonzaga Bulldogs
This goes directly in concert with the Houston pick. I'm of the opinion that the winner of the Round of 32 game between Gonzaga and Houston is going to reach the Final Four from the Midwest region. The J'Wan Roberts injury is concerning, especially for the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
Gonzaga got a tough draw being an 8-seed, especially since KenPom rates it as the 9th best team in the entire country. Gonzaga is the most under-seeded team in the entire Big Dance. However, it caught a break drawing Houston early, as Roberts might not be 100 percent.
This has been considered a down season for the Zags, losing 8 games in the regular season, and failing to win at least a share of the West Coast Conference regular season championship for the first time in 25 years.
Gonzaga is a dangerous #8 seed in the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
(Kyle Terada/Imagn Images)
But they ran the table in the conference tournament, and they're peaking at the right time. Their defense has been a problem at times, but they held St. Mary's to just 51 points in the WCC tournament final.
They drew an overrated Georgia squad in the first round, and UGA is a team that struggles to score, a perfect first game for Gonzaga to continue to improve its defense and build confidence.
They'll be underdogs against Houston, rightfully so, but don't count out the Bulldogs making a deep run this March.
Top 4 Seed Most Likely To Miss Sweet 16: #3 Kentucky Wildcats
It feels like Kentucky got a 3-seed based on name-recognition and little else. This is not a team that deserves a top-3 seed, perhaps not even a 4-seed. In fact, Gonzaga (the 8-seed in this region) is rated higher. That's absurd.
Plus, Kentucky is dealing with massive injury problems. Jaxson Robinson is already ruled out for the tournament and Lamont Butler is dealing with a shoulder injury. Butler is expected to play in the NCAA Tournament, but might not be 100 percent. Robinson averaged 28 minutes per game, second on the team, so that's a lot of minutes to fill.
In addition, Butler not being 100 percent is going to allow teams to key in on star guard Otega Oweh. Everyone knows how important guard play is in the NCAA Tournament and while Owega is fantastic, he can't do it all himself.
Kentucky guard Otega Oweh has a lot on his plate for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
(Steve Roberts/Imagn Images)
Having to operate without Robinson and a less-than-100-percent Butler puts the Cats at a huge disadvantage, particularly if they advance and have to play Illinois in the Round of 32.
First-Round Upset Alert: #12 McNeese State over #5 Clemson
To be entirely honest, I think this is going to be a mostly-chalk region in the first round. Although I believe Kentucky and Purdue are over-seeded and will struggle to make deep runs, I don't see them actually losing in the first round.
So, let's turn our attention to another 12-5 matchup with McNeese State. What Will Wade has done with that program is nothing short of incredible.
McNeese lost just one conference game all season and swept through the Southland Tournament. In fact, Wade has lost just two conference games combined in his two seasons in Lake Charles after leading the team to the NCAA Tournament last season.
Of course, there's the question whether Wade's head is truly in it after accepting the head coaching gig at North Carolina State on Wednesday. But I'm betting he wants to leave McNeese with at least one NCAA Tournament win.
Now, this is a tough matchup because Clemson is the best of a very underwhelming group of #5 seeds in the tournament. Unfortunately, as I mentioned, this region doesn't set up for a ton of Round of 64 upsets. But if you're desperate to find one, this is where I would look.
Player To Watch: L.J. Cryer, Houston Cougars
Cryer spent three seasons with Baylor before transferring to Houston and is making his third-straight NCAA Tournament appearance (and fourth in five seasons). He played a minor role as a freshman for the Baylor team that beat Gonzaga in the National Championship in 2021 and reached the Sweet 16 with the Cougars last season.
Cryer leads Houston with 15 points per game and he's their most reliable free-throw shooter (92 percent for the season). Guard play and free-throw shooting are major factors when looking for teams to differentiate themselves in March and Cryer provides both.
In addition, as discussed earlier, J'Wan Roberts is banged up which could lead to even more on Cryer's plate as the Cougars lean more on their guards with a smaller lineup. Cryer's defense is going to play a pivotal role, as well, and he had two steals in the Big 12 Championship win over Arizona, despite scoring only 9 points.