Couch: Wimbledon Is Federer's Last Chance For A Major
This is it for Roger Federer. Last call.
Wimbledon starts today, Federer’s tournament. And at 39, coming off two knee surgeries, and two years since he was relevant -- as opposed to ceremonial -- he has thrown everything toward this year’s tournament. He aimed for it, he trained for it, he rehabbed for it.
He even treated the French Open, a major, as practice for it. And now the draw has lined up for him, as he’s on the opposite side of Novak Djokovic, and Rafael Nadal has decided not to play at all.
The truth about Federer goes unspoken in tennis circles because it’s hard to see him this way. Everyone has known this day was coming, but no one was accepting that it would ever actually be here.
It is unlikely that Federer will ever win another major tennis championship. But if he does have one last chance, then this is it. This is the one. He starts Tuesday against Adrian Mannarino.
“I know if I get rolling, I get into the second week, which is the goal here right now, that I get stronger and stronger as every match goes by,’’ Federer said in a pre-tournament press conference. “I believe it’s very much possible.’’
Federer has made it sound as if he’s still just recovering from his surgeries and that things will get back to normal. Just give him the first week of this two-week tournament to find his groove and then look out.
But he has had a few tournaments now to get match-tough again, and they haven’t gone great. He did reach the fourth round of the French Open, when he doubted he could get that far. But the knee held up. He dropped out at that point so that he could be fully ready for Wimbledon.
He also avoided the potential of long, grinding matches on the red clay in Paris. Those matches could have been against Djokovic and Nadal.
So he left early and started working on the fast grass courts. But then in a tournament in Germany, he lost to young Felix Auger-Aliasssime and looked out of sorts and uncharacteristically negative.
“I had a mental moment where I was just not happy with how things were going in the match,’’ Federer said. “When things derailed mentally for me, I was already down a break in the third (set). You might argue I would have maybe lost anyway. . .
“The good thing now, looking back, is I know it will not happen here because I'm ready, I'm excited, I'm pumped up. I know I can do so much better. I think I've got to take the positives out of these last few weeks, that I'm actually here at Wimbledon right now and I have a chance. I come here feeling mentally strong rather (than) the last set I played in Halle, which was clearly not the standard I like.’’
We’ve seen Tom Brady win a Super Bowl at 43 and Phil Mickelson win the PGA Championship at 50. But it’s harder to cover up age in an individual sport like tennis. It’s easier to work your magic at that age from behind a wall of 325-pound blockers than on a court by yourself in a game that’s about sprints and stops and starts.
But it feels as if there is still one last chance here and now for Federer.
Grass is the worst surface for most of the players, but Federer is comfortable on it and has won Wimbledon eight times. In fact, the tournament was canceled in 2020 because of COVID, but in 2019, he reached the final and had championship point against Djokovic before losing.
This year, the pandemic changed the schedule, so the time between the French and Wimbledon was shortened, meaning the other players had less time than usual to get used to the grass.
And Nadal felt his body wasn’t ready for Wimbledon, or for the Olympics, and withdrew.
If Federer can get to the quarterfinals, he’d likely play Daniil Medvedev, one of the top young players and the No. 2 seed. But Medvedev has never gotten past the third round at Wimbledon. He also could play Alex Zverev, who has been known to get very nervous in big matches, or Matteo Berrettini. I would actually consider Berrettini to be one of the favorites, but he’s also young and hasn’t had many big moments yet.
It’s hard to see Federer winning another major anywhere on a hard court, and he isn’t at Nadal’s or Djokovic’ level on clay anymore. Next year’s Wimbledon: He’ll be 40.
The major count and GOAT debate are at play, too. Federer and Nadal have won 20 majors and Djokovic 19. The truth is that both Nadal and Djokovic will end up with more majors than Federer.
But they say every great fighter has one great fight left in him. If that’s true for Federer, his last knockout will have to be now.