Outkick's Gambling Picks Week Four 2014

Yesterday was a bit wild because we had our third boy. Thanks for all your Tweets and emails, mom and baby Nash are doing well. But that meant I was a day late with the gambling picks. Last week we went 5-4, a robust 5-0 start to the day faded down the stretch and we ended with four consecutive losses. The toughest of the late losses was Tennessee, which really should have covered that +21 number against Oklahoma but didn't. 

This means our record on the year is now a robust 12-11. 

Once more, however, we go into the breach with nine guaranteed winners and two over/under bets. 

Auburn -9 at Kansas State

Auburn has covered 13 straight football games. Want to be sick? If you'd bet $100 on Auburn 13 games ago and kept your winnings rolling, you'd now have $409,600. 

We know that Gus Malzahn's team will score at least 40 points. So the question becomes -- how many points will Kansas State score? I actually think Auburn's defense is a bit better than expected and I don't see Kansas State putting up more than 28. So I'm calling this game 42-28 Auburn.  

Mizzou - 13.5 vs. Indiana

There have been two immutable trends in recent gambling history -- Bet against the Big Ten and bet for Missouri. Sure, I could overthink this game, but I'm not going to play that game. Take Mizzou to cover against the Big Ten.  

Vandy +22 vs. South Carolina

Speaking of overthinking a game, I'm overthinking a game and betting on Vanderbilt this week. That's despite the fact that last week I said I wouldn't take Vandy to cover against Ensworth high school. It's a recipe for a cover here. First, I get over three touchdowns, second, South Carolina is coming off a huge, physically draining win and going on the road for the first time this season, third, Derek Mason seems to have finally decided to stick with Patton Robinette at quarterback. Robinette isn't going to wow you, but he just finds ways to win ugly football games.

If South Carolina wins by forty, I expect all of you to be unmitigated in your Twitter fury. I will deserve all your insults. 

Texas A&M -33 vs. SMU

SMU hasn't scored a touchdown this season. On the flip side, A&M has scored a ton of points this season. We know that the Aggies will score 40 and we know that SMU is unlikely to score more than ten. Honestly, this line feels like stealing. 

Florida +15 at Alabama

The Gators almost lost to Kentucky and Alabama has been cruising since week one against West Virginia. So why in the world am I betting on Florida? Because, and this may end up looking absurd, I believe in Jeff Driskel. Florida isn't going to have great success running the football so it's going to come down to whether or not Driskel can move the ball through the air against this Alabama secondary. In week one the Tide looked suspect in the secondary. The past two weeks haven't brought real challenges. So the biggest storyline to me is this -- Driskel vs. the Alabama secondary. I think there are holes here and I think Driskel will exploit them. I'm not saying the Gators win -- I have to eat fried bat on WJOX radio if this happens -- but I am taking Florida to cover. 

Oregon -24 at Washington State and the over at 74.5

Come on, this line really is stealing. Washington State gave up 41 points to Rutgers. Mike Leach throws the ball on every play so this game is going to last eight hours and Oregon is going to get 150 offensive possessions. Oregon will score over fifty points and Washington State will score 28. I can't believe I'm telling y'all to take the over at 74.5, but I am.   

Clemson +17 at Florida State

Jameis is suspended for the first half, last season Clemson got decapitated in what many called the biggest ACC game in Memorial Stadium history, and you know it will be a raucous crowd for FSU come a night kickoff. So why in the world am I picking Clemson? Because FSU hasn't been that impressive this season. That's one of the great hidden stories of the 2014 season so far, FSU has looked like a borderline top ten caliber team. Maybe that changes on Saturday night, but I don't think it will. Clemson has had an entire season to stew over the humiliation they endured last year. I'm not saying Clemson wins, just that they keep it closer than 17.  

Mississippi State + 9.5 at LSU

LSU has outscored its opponents 108-0 since staking Wisconsin to a 24-7 lead. Meanwhile, we really don't know much about Dan Mullen's 3-0 Mississippi State team. Will this be the year that State finally beats an SEC west team other than Ole Miss or Arkansas? Or, like pretty much every season, will Dan Mullen struggle his way to the vicinity of eight wins? I'm not picking State to win this game, but I do think it will be a touchdown or less. I'm still not sold on what this LSU offense can do in the passing game and that's why I think State keeps it close.  

Oklahoma -7 at West Virginia and the over 61

Two weeks ago I put Oklahoma on upset alert for this trip. Then I was surprised to see the line open at around ten. Whereupon everyone immediately drove the line down to a single touchdown. I wanted WVU at around +12 or better. Now, to be honest, I think the value has swung back to Oklahoma +7. I think both teams are going to score in this game, which is why I'm also taking the over at 61. 38-28 Oklahoma is how I see the final playing out.