Outkick's Gambling Picks For Week 12 2014
We went 5-5 last week, including one of the most difficult losses of the year, LSU +6.5. The Tigers were inside the number for the entirety of regulation, including +9.5 with fifty seconds left in the game. Then came a crushing defeat. Alabama drove the field and kicked a field goal. The Tide then lost the overtime coin flip and took possession first. Which, if you were like me, immediately upset you. Why? Because if the Tide took possession second the absolute worst result that could have happened was another overtime. That's because the only way the Tide would have attempted a point after would have been if LSU scored a touchdown first. If LSU took possession first then there would have been no way we could have lost this bet. When you're +9.5 with fifty seconds left, that should be a win.
So that one really hurt.
We're now 49-53 on the season. But this is the week we go 10-0. (If I keep saying it eventually it's going to happen).
Let's get rich.
On to the picks:
Ohio State at Minnesota +13
This is the classic trap game for Ohio State. I don't think Minnesota is very good -- in fact, I think the fact that TCU's win over Minnesota is somehow being trumpeted as a great triumph is one of the biggest flaws of the playoff committee thus far -- but the weather is going to be awful in Minnesota and that could keep the scoring low. Plus, I think Minnesota scores to take an early lead, giving us even more points to help the cover. Ohio State's good, but let's not forget the Buckeyes should have lost at Penn State. OSU comes back to earth this week.
Kentucky at Tennessee -8 53.5 over
Here's the deal, Kentucky has been getting worse since September. The Wildcats can't stop the run and the Vols have a mobile quarterback who is so fast he's outrun his eyebrows. Did you watch Georgia eviscerate this Kentucky defense? I think Tennessee scores forty or more points on Kentucky. The Wildcats will score twenty on the Vols. So I love UT by double digits and the over here.
It's amazing how much difference a good quarterback can make. The Vols have gone from not being able to score to being unstoppable. At least basketball season is close, Kentucky fans.
Virginia Tech at Duke -4.5
It's time to jump on the David Cutcliffe express. Have y'all realized that Cutcliffe is going to win 11 games at Duke this year. Eleven. Games. Meanwhile Virginia Tech has lost three in a row and four of six since beating Ohio State by 14 back in September. How long ago does that seem now? Sure, I feel a bit nervous putting money on Duke, but it's time to trust in Cutcliffe.
LSU at Arkansas and the under of 47.5
It's one thing to pick Arkansas to cover, another thing entirely to pick Arkansas to win by a field goal. The Razorbacks have not won an SEC football game since October of 2012. Here's a fun list of twenty things that have happened since Arkansas last won a football game. So I'm not touching this line. I know LSU is beaten up after their heartbreaking loss to Alabama, but I anticipate LSU will run the football fifty times against Arkansas. And I anticipate Arkansas will do the same against LSU. LSU has given up 23 points total in its last two football games against Ole Miss and Alabama. That's why the play here is the under.
Auburn at Georgia -2.5 and the over of 68.5
Auburn's schedule is finally catching up with the Tigers. How many teams in college football could beat Georgia after coming off a last second win over Ole Miss, a last second loss over Texas A&M, and the return of Todd Gurley after several weeks of rest? I'm not sure any could. Gurley might not be in great shape to carry the ball 25 times, but he won't have to, 15 carries will get him 150 yards. More alarmingly for Auburn's pass defense, Hutson Mason has been throwing the ball very well in Gurley's absence. There will be a ton of points scored in this one. I see Georgia winning 45-35. Take the Bulldogs and the over.
Florida State -1.5 at Miami
Ask yourself this, is FSU's streak of 25 straight wins going to come to a close at 6-3 Miami? Is this how great villains see their runs come to a close, at a random point in the middle of the season? (College football ain't Game of Thrones, y'all). The same Hurricanes team that has lost by double digits to Louisville, Nebraska and Georgia Tech is going to suddenly rid college football of Jameis Winston and the Seminoles? No way. FSU is winning this game. I don't care about your fancy metrics or your regression analysis or your probability tables, this is a simple game to bet. The question is this: will Jameis Winston let FSU lose to Miami? And the answer is no. That's why FSU is the bet your mortgage pick this week. Take it to the bank, kids.
Missouri at Texas A&M -5.5
These two teams might have been the most confounding teams all season. Between them they were good enough to beat a top five team on the road and lose by 59 in the same state, to beat Florida on the road by 29 without passing for thirty yards and lose at home to Indiana. Anything could happen in this game and I'd consider it totally believable. But ultimately this is a bet on A&M's offense. I think it's back. Mizzou has won twice on the road as six point underdogs. I don't think they'll make it three times. In fact, I think Mizzou stands a good shot of losing out.
Mississippi State +8.5 at Alabama
Two years ago Texas A&M scored twenty points in the first quarter at Alabama and managed to hang on to pull off one of the biggest upsets in recent SEC history. The Tide would rebound to win the 2012 national title, but the reason why A&M jumped out on Bama so quickly -- aside from Johnny Manziel -- was simple -- Bama couldn't get back up after the draining last second win at LSU. Now State is rolling into Tuscaloosa with a playmaking quarterback and no one is giving them a shot to win. Sound familiar at all? We're talking about the number one team in the country potentially being a double digit underdog by kickoff.
Has that ever happened in the SEC before?
I know Bama's good -- and I think the Tide win -- but I also think State keeps it close.