NFL Draft Analyst Daniel Jeremiah Outlines Scenario For Moving Up To Pick A Top QB

Welcome to NFL draft season and, of course, the chase for an elite quarterback at the top of the draft.

If you respect the opinion of NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah, and most people in the league do to the point some would like to hire him, then the coming draft will be strong on cornerback, edge rusher, and "outstanding" for teams wanting tight ends.

"The tight end group is the best I've seen the last 10 years," Jeremiah said Friday. "It's outstanding."

Jeremiah is not as impressed by the receiver class as recent years.

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - DECEMBER 31: Bryce Young of the Alabama Crimson Tide reacts after throwing a touchdown pass during the fourth quarter of the Allstate Sugar Bowl against the Kansas State Wildcats at Caesars Superdome on December 31, 2022 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

Daniel Jeremiah Has Bryce Young Going No. 1

But, of course, it's all about quarterbacks at the top of the draft with Alabama's Bryce Young, Ohio State's C.J. Stroud and obviously others.

The Chicago Bears have the No. 1 overall selection and are more likely to trade down or select a different position than QB because they have Justin Fields. And the price for getting up to the No. 1 pick for teams needing a quarterback will come at a premium.

Jeremiah said based on the NFL Network's research, teams trading up to select a quarterback in recent years have paid 120 percent of the value of most draft trade value charts suggest.

"You have to pay a premium to come up for a quarterback," Jeremiah said. "That's good news for the Bears."

And the return hasn't always worth the move since 2011:

"In other words, don't be so concerned if you're the Bears of trading off a future Hall of Famer," Jeremiah said. "It hasn't been a great list over the last few years."

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - DECEMBER 18: Justin Fields #1 of the Chicago Bears looks on during warm ups prior to the game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Soldier Field on December 18, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Bears Can Be Confident Trading Draft's No. 1 Pick

There are nonetheless three teams positioned relatively high in the draft that need a quarterback and might have to trade up. Those are the Texans with the second overall pick, the Colts with the fourth overall pick, and the Panthers with the ninth overall pick.

The trade chart might make a move up to the first overall selection difficult for all those except the Texans.

The Texans, per Jeremiah, would have to give up their No. 2 overall selection, the 33rd selection this year and next year's No. 2 pick.

That's to move up one spot.

The Colts would have to yield their No. 4 overall selection, the 35th overall pick, a first-rounder in 2024 and a second-rounder in 2024.

Yikes!

The Panthers would have to give up their No. 9 overall selection, No. 39 overall this year, a first-rounder in 2024 and another first-rounder in 2025.

Now we understand why the Panthers might be players in the veteran quarterback market especially for Derek Carr.

"Those are the three teams I think will be in the mix," Jeremiah said, "and those are your three options."

So is the price for shooting to the top pick worthwhile when the trade effectively means Alabama's Bryce Young is off the board but C.J. Stroud remains?

"I like Bryce Young better on the tape," Jeremiah said. "But I think C.J. Stroud is a really good player and if you're not comfortable with that price to get to that No. 1 pick, staying where they are and getting C.J. Stroud, I'd feel just fine about that.

"I think he's just a pure thrower. The big question with him that's been talked about was not a lot of off-schedule, not a lot of playmaking. But then all of sudden you see the semifinal game and you say, 'Dude, where's this been?' And the old scouting adage is if you can do it once, you can do it."

TALLAHASSEE, FL - NOVEMBER 25: Florida Gators quarterback Anthony Richardson throws a pass during the game between the Florida Gators and the Florida State Seminoles on November 25, 2022 at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Fl. (Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

An NFL Draft Surprise From Anthony Richardson?

A wild card is University of Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson, who Jeremiah has going No. 18 overall to the Lions in his mock draft.

"Making calls just around the league, the best way to do the quarterback conversation is talk to teams that don't need one and you'll get kind of an accurate feel just how they evaluate and what they think," Jeremiah said.

"And Anthony Richardson is the second quarterback for several teams I talk to...He's got elite, elite arm strength. He's a rare athlete. You don't see quarterbacks running away from LSU with 80-yard touchdown runs. He's got a big-time ceiling, big-time ability."

Jeremiah said teams have started looking at drafting quarterbacks as a lottery ticket. And Richardson has the biggest payout.

Jeremiah says he sees five potential starting quarterbacks in this draft.

Young, Stroud, Kentucky's Will Levis, Richardson and Tennesse's Hendon Hooker. None of these guys are Andrew Luck or Trevor Lawrence.

"They all have concerns," Jeremiah said. "They all have warts, all have flaws."

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