NFL Coaches In Line For Black Monday Decisions Include Ron Rivera, Matt Eberflus, Arthur Smith, Even Bill Belichick
The day after the regular-season ends is known as Black Monday around the NFL because that's often when club owners decide the fate of their embattled head coaches. And this year at least four league outposts definitely bear monitoring on Black Monday.
Ron Rivera in Washington, Bill Belichick in New England, Arthur Smith in Atlanta, and Matt Eberflus in Chicago will all be making news one way or the other once the regular-season is over.
Some from that list will be out of their current job. But there's still a chance the final three games of the season changes that for others.
This is what I'm hearing:
Washington Commanders coach Ron Rivera could be coaching his final games for the franchise. (Photo by John McDonnell/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
Rally May Still Not Save Ron Rivera
Ron Rivera (Fourth season, 4-10 this season): Rivera fired offensive coordinator Scott Turner on Black Monday 2023 and pulled the plug on defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio in November.
But the Commanders are still bad.
So guess who answers for that next?
Josh Harris, who acquired the club in July, wisely allowed himself a season to study the organization without making rash decisions on leadership. That will not extend into a second season, per a source familiar with Harris's thinking. Decisions will come one way or another the week after this season.
The Commanders have lost five consecutive games and are tied for the second-worst point differential in the league at minus-142. So not only are the Commanders losing, they're often not close while playing in a league built for parity and close games.
What that means is even a rally the final three games may not save Rivera, but Harris has not told anyone that's talking he has a final decision yet.
Atlanta coach Arthur Smith will be evaluated after this season. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
QB Call May Be Arthur Smith's Undoing
Arthur Smith (Third season, 6-8 this season): It's not definite he's gone. Fact is the Falcons could still win the NFC South. But it seems Smith must rally to some significant accomplishment -- a winning season or a playoff appearance -- to keep his job.
Club owner Arthur Blank said Wednesday he is “committed” to Smith but will “let the season play out and go from there.
“Obviously, this has not been the kind of year we expected and you would hear that first from coach Smith,” Blank told Georgia Public Broadcasting in a video interview. “You’d hear it from our fans, you’d hear it from our players...
"At the end of the year, we’ll assess where we are and go from there."
The Falcons have had quarterback issues in that Desmond Ridder has been in and out of the lineup after Smith unwisely committed to him before the season. Ridder has been benched for the remainder of the season in favor of Taylor Heinicke, Smith said Wednesday.
Then again, Smith said Ridder would start the remainder of the season coming out of a Week 11 bye.
Smith has also had stretches of curious player use, often with some of his most talented players such as tight end Kyle Pitts and running back Bijan Robinson.
Yeah, weird.
Bears coach Matt Eberflus watches a video replay during a win against the Detroit Lions. (Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images)
Strong Finish Saves Bears Matt Eberflus
Matt Eberflus (Second season, 5-9 this season): A strong finish will likely save his job, per league sources. This might be a surprise because it seemed Eberflus was on his way out when the Bears started 0-4.
But they've been playing .500 football since then and even managed good wins over the division rival Lions and Vikings recently. They played well at times against the Browns and were a dropped Hail Mary away from winning that game on Sunday.
So Eberflus is not definitively out at this stage. Bears owner Virginia McCaskey is 100 years old and has run the Bears the last 40 years with great distinction. She didn't do that by making rash decisions.
The final three games won't win the Bears the NFC North or even get them above .500. But if they win all of those games, Eberflus is more likely than keeping his job, league sources said.
Failing that strong finish, well, the situation could go the other direction.
New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft and head coach Bill Belichick must come to an agreement about the future. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Getty Images)
Change Coming To The New England Patriots
Bill Belichick (24th season, 3-11): It's easy to say a separation is coming. That is what most people within the NFL who voice opinions on the matter believe.
But that's mostly speculation. This is what we know:
Change is coming. That is definitive, according to league sources. It's just a matter of what that change looks like. And the results of the final three games will not affect that, a source said.
Patriots owner Robert Kraft is bitterly disappointed with this season. And he came into it disappointed about the previous two seasons when the club got blown out by 30 points in its only playoff game in 2021 and didn't make the postseason at all in '22.
So Kraft has been unhappy with the team's direction for a while. Sources say he is not making a decision based on one awful year that may be a one-off.
Now the questions and speculation:
Does change mean Kraft offers Belichick a chance to stay if he gives up his defacto general manager role? Would Belichick entertain that?
Does Kraft keep Belichick while giving him permission to seek other employment and try to trade him to an interested club? Would Belichick participate in such a scenario, considering it would hurt his new team?
Does Belichick simply walk away? Does everyone paint this like it's Belichick's desire to step down, with the Patriots agreeing to let him go unencumbered (despite one year remaining on his contract)? He has, after all, earned that after all these years.
That last scenario would effectively make Belichick a free agent if he wants.
Lots of ways this could play out. But that something is about to play out is definite.
Head coach Robert Saleh of the New York Jets smiles prior to an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
A Trio Of Coaches On The Black Monday Cusp
The others: This group includes Robert Saleh in New York, Dennis Allen in New Orleans, and perhaps Todd Bowles in Tampa Bay.
A strong finish saves Allen and Bowles. If their teams somehow collapse the final three weeks, they'll have to sweat through an end-of-season evaluation.
Saleh? Aaron Rodgers has endorsed him and that holds weight with owner Woody Johnson.
"It's appreciated," Saleh said.
Saleh can argue he didn't have his starting quarterback for all but four snaps this season and the offensive line injuries would not be overcome by any coach. Regardless of this, Saleh is also headed toward a tough end-of-season evaluation.