2023 NFC South Division Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Entering Rebuild Mode
The 2023-24 NFL season kick-off is almost here! OutKick is unveiling its team-by-team preview series. Over the past two weeks, we covered the AFC West and NFC West and the AFC North and NFC North. This week, we're tackling the two South divisions, continuing with last year's champion in the NFC South, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2022-23 Record: 8-9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2023-24 Win Total Over/Under: 6.5
Offseason Moves
Obviously, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost quarterback Tom Brady to retirement. Even with Brady, the team went 8-9 last year. They made the playoffs, but quickly lost in the first round. This is a team in clear transition mode that went all-out to win a Super Bowl with Brady. Which they did.
The Bucs brought in Baker Mayfield to compete with 2021 third-round pick Kyle Trask for the nod at starting quarterback to replace Brady. Mayfield won that job and becomes the team's starter for the beginning of the season. Brady had more regular season wins in his three seasons in Tampa Bay (32) than Baker Mayfield has in his career (31).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers go from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield, which likely means a long NFL season for the team that won the NFC South last year. (Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)
The good news for Tampa Bay is that they managed to re-sign two important defenders: cornerback Jamel Dean and linebacker Lavonte David. However, they lost starters Akiem Hicks (DL) and Mike Edwards (S).
Tampa Bay used its first round pick on Pittsburgh interior defender Calijah Kancey. Kancey has incredible upside as a potential Aaron Donald-type player on the inside of the defensive line. That comparison might seem lofty, but Kancey put up numbers during the NFL Draft Combine that broke records set by Donald.
The Bucs used their second-round pick on North Dakota State offensive tackle Cody Mauch before turning back to defense in round three to grab Louisville edge rusher YaYa Diaby. The team used six of its nine draft picks on the defensive side of the ball.
Season Outlook
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense took a step backwards in 2022, falling from Top 5 in expected points added to outside the Top 10. Retaining Dean and David is a big win, and clearly their NFL Draft strategy was to try and return that unit to its former glory.
That makes sense since the offense is certainly going backwards this season. Following three seasons with Brady, the team turns to Mayfield as its starting quarterback. This is Mayfield's fourth different team in the past three seasons. He struggled badly in Carolina and the team benched him and ultimately cut him midseason.
The Rams signed Mayfield to replace an injured Matthew Stafford and he led the team on a dramatic game-winning drive in his first game. However, the team lost three of the final four games of the season. This is not breaking news, but Baker Mayfield is not Tom Brady.
They still have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, which is great news. But the bad news is that the offensive line stunk last year and isn't going to be that much better this season. There are major question marks for this team at tight end and running back, too.
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are going to have shoulder most of the offensive load for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season. (Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images)
The defense might improve but the offense is going to be worse. It's impossible to see a team led by Mayfield and/or Kyle Trask winning more games than the Tom Brady version. The question is whether not they can get to seven wins and beat their projected win total.
Because they won the division last year, their schedule is slightly tougher despite playing in a relatively weak NFC South. Ultimately, I have them as a five-or-six-win team this season.