2023 NFC South Division Preview: New Orleans Saints Are About As Good As Last Year
The 2023-24 NFL season kick-off is almost here! OutKick is unveiling its team-by-team preview series. Over the past two weeks, we covered the AFC West and NFC West and the AFC North and NFC North. This week, we're tackling the two South divisions, continuing with last year's third-place finisher in the NFC South, the New Orleans Saints.
New Orleans Saints 2022-23 Record: 7-10
New Orleans Saints 2023-24 Win Total Over/Under: 9.5
Offseason Moves
The biggest move for the New Orleans Saints this offseason came in the form of free agent quarterback Derek Carr. Carr spent nine seasons with the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders, compiling a career record of 63-79 in 142 starts. Carr played in just one playoff game, a 26-19 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, the eventual AFC champions for the 2021-22 season.
Carr's best season came back in 2016 when he led the Raiders to a 12-3 record before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 16 against the Indianapolis Colts. The Saints are hoping Carr can regain some of that 2016 form. He posted career or near-career lows in several passing categories last season including completion percentage, interception rate and quarterback rating.
The Derek Carr-era for the New Orleans Saints begins this NFL season as they try to win the NFC South for the first time since 2020. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
Outside of the Carr addition, New Orleans lost several defensive starters. Edge rusher Marcus Davenport, interior defender David Onyemata, and linebacker Kaden Elliss all departed for new teams. The team added defensive linemen Khalen Saunders and Nathan Shepherd to try and replace the lost production.
On offense, they brought in running back Jamaal Williams -- last year's NFL rushing touchdown leader -- along with wide receiver Jarvis Landry and former Carr target in Las Vegas, tight end Foster Moreau. The team did not have much salary cap space with which to work.
In the NFL Draft, the team continued to look for replacements along the defensive line for the veterans who departed. The Saints selected Clemson interior defender Bryan Bresee in the first round and Notre Dame edge rusher Isaiah Foskey in round two. With Alvin Kamara's status up-in-the-air at the time (the NFL ultimately suspended him for the first three games of the season), New Orleans took TCU running back Kendre Miller in round three.
Season Outlook
Vegas placed the New Orleans Saints over/under at 9.5 wins this season. I don't see the Saints as anywhere near a 10-win team. They won seven games last season and lost production on defense. A defense that ranked Top 10 in the league in expected points added.
Going from Andy Dalton to Derek Carr is an upgrade, obviously. But just how big of an upgrade is it? If Derek Carr can re-gain his form, then it's a big upgrade. But he struggled badly last season. And, he's 32 years old now. Sure, the Saints have Chris Olave -- who looks the part of a potential star receiver -- but that remains to be seen for the second-year player.
The New Orleans Saints have major question marks behind Chris Olave in terms of offensive weapons. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)
Beyond Olave, the team doesn't have many threats on offense. They get Kamara back in Week 4, but he's a now-28-year-old running back. How much does he have left in the tank? Michael Thomas appears healthy, but we've heard that before.
There are just too many question marks around this team and I can't envision them finishing any better than they did last season. Maybe they get to eight wins, but that's the ceiling. And the floor on this squad is much lower than most people realize.