2023 AFC West Division Preview: Las Vegas Raiders Look Like Strong Bet ... To Finish Last
With exactly one month left until the 2023-24 NFL season kicks off, OutKick is unveiling its team-by-team preview series. Over the course of the next four weeks, we are going division-by-division, covering all 32 NFL teams. The series continues with the AFC and NFC West, now taking a look at last year's third-place finisher in the AFC West, the Las Vegas Raiders.
Las Vegas Raiders 2022-23 Record: 6-11
Las Vegas Raiders 2023-24 Win Total Over/Under: 6.5
Offseason Moves
The Las Vegas Raiders made a big decision towards the end of last season to move on from quarterback Derek Carr. The team drafted Carr 36th overall in 2014 and he started all but four Raiders games over the past nine seasons. But the team decided it needed a change.
So, Carr is now a member of the New Orleans Saints. And Jimmy Garoppolo is the Raiders new starting quarterback. Garoppolo and head coach Josh McDaniels have a relationship that dates back to their time with the New England Patriots.
The pair are hoping to rekindle some magic in the form of a successful 2023-24 NFL season for both of them. If McDaniels can't get the team on track, he might be out of a job. If Garoppolo can't stay healthy, he might be on the unemployment line as well.
Former New England Patriots quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels reunite with the Las Vegas Raiders, trying to replicate their success. (Photo by Tom Hauck/Getty Images)
In addition to Garoppolo, the Raiders brought in another former Patriot: wide receiver Jakobi Meyers. They franchise-tagged last year's NFL leading rusher, Josh Jacobs. But Jacobs might not play for the team at all this season. Drama surrounding their star clouds this start of this season.
The Raiders best work might have come in the NFL Draft. They got Texas Tech defensive end Tyree Wilson with the 7th overall pick. Many thought Wilson could be the best player in the draft, but concerns over a foot injury slightly deflated his stock.
Then, they got one of the top tight end prospects -- Notre Dame's Michael Mayer -- in the second round to pair alongside star Davante Adams and new addition Jakobi Meyers. With two third-round picks, the team selected Alabama defensive lineman Byron Young and Cincinnati wide receiver Tre Tucker.
Season Outlook
The Las Vegas Raiders won six games last season and the oddsmakers think that a repeat is likely. Their win total over/under is 6.5 but its juiced towards the under, indicating six wins to be the most likely outcome.
That makes sense to me. They replaced Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo. That's not really an upgrade and comes with much more inherent injury risk. Josh McDaniels is the worst coach in the division. I'm sure some are going to say it's Brandon Staley, but I believe in Staley much more than McDaniels.
Head coach Josh McDaniels of the Las Vegas Raiders is the worst coach in the AFC West and this could be his last season as an NFL head coach. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Getty Images)
They upgraded their offense by bringing in Meyers and Mayer. I like what they did in the Draft, but Wilson is going to need time to become a star. They also lost several starters on defense to free agency. And their defense wasn't great in 2022 to being with (third-worst in expected points added).
Maxx Crosby is a star but beyond him, there just isn't much talent on that side of the ball. And they have to face the Chiefs and Chargers four times. I believe the Broncos are a bit overrated but they should be better than the Raiders.
All told, I think the Raiders finish last in the AFC West and Josh McDaniels loses his job. And that should be the last time he ever gets hired to be a head coach in the NFL again.