2023 AFC East Division Preview: New England Patriots Facing Low Expectations That They Can Exceed
The 2023-24 NFL season kick-off is almost here! OutKick is unveiling its team-by-team preview series. Over the past three weeks, we covered the AFC West and NFC West, the AFC North and NFC North and the AFC South and the NFC South. This week, we turn our attention to the final two divisions. And that continues with last year's third-place finisher in the AFC East, the New England Patriots.
New England Patriots 2022-23 Record: 8-9
New England Patriots 2023-24 Win Total Over/Under: 6.5
Offseason Moves
The New England Patriots underwent significant turnover this past offseason. Perhaps the most impactful move is the return of Bill O'Brien. O'Brien served as an offensive assistant in various roles from 2007-11 and as offensive coordinator in that final 2011 season. He's the OC once again following stints with Penn State, the Houston Texans and Alabama. O'Brien had Tom Brady at quarterback during his previous stint, but interestingly did not win a Super Bowl.
The team surprisingly let offensive tackle Isaiah Wynn, a 2018 first-round pick of the team, walk in free agency and replaced him with the more expensive and older Riley Reiff. Reiff spent his first 9 seasons in the NFC North, playing for the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings. He went to Cincinnati for one season before returning to the NFC North in Chicago. Now, he heads to New England.
The other surprising decision came in the form of letting Jakobi Meyers walk. Meyers is a solid wide receiver, but more importantly, his teammates loved him. Many Patriots reportedly expressed their disappointment in that decision.
Once again, Belichick replaced him with a more experienced option, signing six-year veteran JuJu Smith-Schuster -- who the Super Bowl last season with the Chiefs after five years in Pittsburgh. And, they added tight end Mike Gesicki, who they are very familiar with as he spent his first five seasons with AFC East rival Miami.
Finally, the Pats made a late offseason move to sign veteran running back Ezekiel Elliott. Rhamondre Stevenson is set to carry the load again this year, but the team needed depth after letting Damien Harris go.
In the NFL Draft, the Patriots selected Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez in the first round. He was the third corner off-the-board, but many experts felt he was the best player at the position. The team lost veteran safety Devin McCourty to retirement and Gonzalez is a potential replacement as a leader in the secondary.
As per usual, Belichick made some interesting selections in the draft, opting for Georgia Tech edge rusher Keion White in round two and hybrid linebacker/safety Marte Mapu out of Sacramento State in round three.
Season Outlook
The days of the New England Patriots dominating the AFC East are over. They haven't won the division since Tom Brady left and made just one playoff appearance over the past three seasons. Vegas set their win total initially at 7.5 -- the lowest since 2001 -- and it's actually dropping. Many people, including OutKick gambling expert Geoff Clark, expect this team to be one of the worst in the NFL.
I'm not willing to go quite that far. The AFC East is stacked, yes, but Bill Belichick is still Bill Belichick. Plus, Bill O'Brien should help the offense improve and that includes Mac Jones. The team showed the utmost faith in Mac Jones, cutting all of his competition. So, it's a big year for the third-year signal-caller. Jones has a career record of 16-15.
Betting the Patriots under means banking on 6-11 or worse this season. Belichick hasn't won fewer than seven games in a season since 2000 -- his first in New England. The Patriots aren't going to make the playoffs. But they are a seven-win team at worst.