Juan Soto Thinks Aaron Judge Can Break The All-Time Home Run Record, But Is He Right?

Aaron Judge hit his 300th career home run on Wednesday evening, teeing off on the hapless Chicago White Sox for his 43rd homer of the season.

From a fan perspective, it's easy to marvel at the season Judge is having. He's hitting .333 with a .467 on base percentage and .707 slugging percentage. It's the best season of his already remarkable career, and one of the best offensive seasons we've seen in decades. His weighted runs created plus, an adjusted offensive statistic where 100 is the league average, is 219, meaning he's been 119 percent better than the league average as a hitter. 

It's remarkable. And even his teammates are impressed. Juan Soto, playing with Judge for the first season, commented on what it's been like watching Judge hit every day. And it's created some lofty expectations for the 32-year-old outfielder.

"I hope he breaks the home run record," Soto said, according to Chris Kirschner. "Why not? I think he's the guy who can literally break the record. He's been showing up all the time. I hope he has the health to do it. I'm gonna enjoy this as much as I can, too."

But how realistic is that as a possibility?

PHILADELPHIA - Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees reacts after hitting a single in the eleventh inning against the New York Yankees at Citizens Bank Park on July 30, 2024. (Photo by Heather Barry/Getty Images)

Aaron Judge Has A Long Way To Go To Break Records

Judge has been baseball's most prolific home run hitter essentially since his full season debut in 2017. But he has several factors playing against him when it comes to career records.

That full season debut came in his age-25 season, putting him behind the eight ball compared to players who debuted at a younger age. Then there's the lockdown-shortened 2020 season, when teams played just a 60-game schedule. Judge played only 28 games of that season, limiting him to just nine home runs in one of the prime seasons of his career.

Then in 2023, he missed more than 50 games with injury, limiting him to just 37 home runs. So while he's reached 300 in a remarkably short time frame in terms of games played, at 32, he's well off the pace to reach 763. Assuming he plays through the end of his contract, Judge would have seven years remaining. Even if he hit 50 homers in each season through his late-30's, he'd come up well short. 

If he reaches 60 this year, he'd start 2025 with 317 in his career. To hit 446 more, he'd need to average 64 per season. That ain't happening. Injuries, age-related decline, and how difficult it is to hit that many per year is going to make that all but impossible.

But hey, it'll be fun to watch him try! And frustrating to wonder what might have been if not for the 2020 season and a fluky injury in 2023.