Election Gambling Odds: Joe Biden Favored Over Donald Trump

Starting today, every Tuesday Outkick will track gambling odds for the 2020 U.S. Presidential election. Right now, books in the United Kingdom have the following odds:

Joe Biden: 8/11
Donald Trump: 5/4

This means for Biden you would risk $11 to win $8, and for Trump you'd risk $4 to win $5. If you were to look at these odds like a moneyline bet, Biden would be about -137 and Trump would be +125.

Obviously, these odds represent the tumult across America since George Floyd died at the hands of Minneapolis police. The coronavirus was clearly a major disruptor in both the country and the world, but Trump had been favored over Biden in the gambling odds until two weeks ago.

You can look at these gambling odds in a similar way you look at sports: When money pours in on one side, the odds adjust. Almost certainly, recent polling data that favors Biden over Trump has propelled wagers in that direction. I would say that my personal opinion is that traditional polling could underrate Trump, between people who are either embarrassed to say out loud to a stranger that they are a fan of his, or strictly vote Republican because of belief that will yield lower taxes and higher stocks.

Nonetheless, I also think the gambling odds are instructive at least in the sense of gauging which way momentum is going. There's a lot of time between now and November, but right now Biden has the momentum.