Snell, Padres Will Defeat Orioles

Orioles vs. Padres, 8:40 ET

It is a Wednesday and that means we have a full slate of baseball to choose from. That can often be a bit harder as you try to break down which games are the best to play and which ones are the ones to avoid. We have a rubber match here in the game between the Orioles and the Padres. I was wrong about my play in the game yesterday, but I'm going back to the series to see if I can get my money back.

The Orioles were already on the West Coast when this series started but still needed to travel from Seattle to San Diego. They ended up taking the first game of the series and looking really solid. Then yesterday they had to face Michael Wacha who had returned from the injured list. To combat him they used Jack Flaherty, a pitcher they obtained in a deadline deal with the Cardinals. Flaherty was knocked around a bit in the game and the Padres ended up winning the game 10-3. Tonight, Dean Kremer takes the ball for Baltimore. That's positive news for the Orioles in some ways as Kremer has been solid over five of his past seven outings. The great news is they've won all seven of those games. The two "bad" starts, one he allowed three earned over four innings, and another he allowed five earned runs over 4.2 innings. All others he went at least five innings and allowed no more than two earned runs. Most of the Padres haven't had to face Kremer before. In his career, they've only got three hits off of him in 19 at-bats, but eight of them have come from Bogaerts.

CLEVELAND, OH - SEPTEMBER 01: Cedric Mullins #31 and Anthony Santander #25 of the Baltimore Orioles celebrate a solo home run by Mullins off Shane Bieber of the Cleveland Guardians during the first inning at Progressive Field on September 01, 2022 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)

I feel like if the Padres decided to blow this team up, maybe with the exception of Fernando Tatis Jr., they could get almost any top prospect in baseball. They have some of the most talented players in the game and somehow they just can't make it work. Their pitching staff is even filled with arms that would be some of the top recruited if they were all free agents at this point. One of those free agents that would earn top dollar is Blake Snell, especially after this season. Snell has been fabulous since June. What's even crazier is that Snell has allowed the same amount of earned runs this month (five) as he did all of June and July combined. Still, 10 earned runs allowed over the past 74 innings is awesome. Snell has been solid against the Orioles hitters in his career, but most of the at-bats against him came from Aaron Hicks and James McCann. The problem that I have with Snell's performance overall is that he walks too many hitters. He doesn't allow a ton of hits, but the walks are kind of like playing with fire.

It is hard to fade Snell in this situation and I think the Padres are going to be able to get to Kremer. I'm going to take the Padres on the run line here as I don't think this will be a particularly close game. The first two games weren't close either, and I think this follows suit. Grab the Padres -1.5 for the full game.

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